Section 5: Performance Discussion

5.3 The Weather and Environmental Predictions Business Line - Helping Canadians Adapt to Their Environment

Strategic Outcome: Help Canadians adapt to their environment in ways that safeguard their health and safety, optimize economic activity and enhance environmental quality

Canadians are affected by environmental conditions on many time and space scales - from minutes to centuries and from cities to continents. We are affected by weather and environmental conditions such as tornados, winter storms, floods, droughts, smog, variable lake levels, sea ice conditions and extremes in temperature and precipitation. These conditions can affect our health and safety, our businesses, the economy, and the environment.

The objective of the Weather and Environmental Predictions Business Line is to help Canadians adapt to their environment in ways which safeguard their health and safety, optimize economic activity and enhance environmental quality. Specifically, the Weather and Environmental Predictions Business Line:

• Monitors the state of the atmosphere (weather, climate, air quality and ultraviolet radiation), hydrosphere (water) and cryosphere (ice and snow);
  
  
• Provides information on the past, present and future states of the physical environment;
  
  
• Issues warnings of severe weather and environmental hazards;
  
  
• Engages in scientific research on the causes of severe weather, the mechanisms which transport chemicals and weather through the atmosphere and around the world, and the impacts of human activity on the atmospheric environment; and
  
  
• Provides advice on adaptation to changing weather and climate.³⁵
  
  

Within Environment Canada's management framework, the Weather and Environmental Predictions Business Line is supported by 2 key results and 6 sub results:

• Reduced impact of weather and related hazards on health, safety and the economy:
  
  
  • Increased margin of safety from high-impact weather and related hazards;
    
    
  • Quality and citizen-centred weather and related environmental prediction service;
    
    
  • Improve society's capacity to adapt to, anticipate, mitigate, withstand and recover from high-impact weather and other hazards.
    
    

• Adaptation to day-to-day and longer-term changes in atmospheric, hydrological and ice conditions:
  
  
  • Increased economic efficiency, productivity and competitiveness;
    
    
  • Improve the quality and enjoyment of life for Canadians; and
    
    
  • Demonstrate scientific leadership.
    
    

The Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) - the core service supporting the Weather and Environmental Predictions (WEP) Business Line - operates 24 hours per day, 365 days per year, to forecast weather and environmental conditions from coast to coast to coast. Over 90 % of Canadians seek weather information at least once a day and the Meteorological Service of Canada's weather web site averages about 300,000 visits per day with major peaks on significant weather days, such as approximately 430,000 visits per day as hurricanes Juan and Isabel approached Canada in September 2003. Each year the MSC provides about 500,000 public weather forecasts, 400,000 aviation forecasts, 200,000 marine weather forecasts and issues approximately 14,000 severe weather warnings and 3,500 ice hazard warnings.

In March 2003, the Meteorological Service of Canada received an investment of $75 million over 5 years (and $5 million per year thereafter) to modernize its operations, and to improve the quality of its forecasts and services to Canadians in all regions. This investment will help the Meteorological Service of Canada better integrate its research capabilities and strengthen its partnerships with weather-sensitive sectors and industries, other levels of government, and the university community. The investment will also be used to ensure that Canadians have continuing and sustainable access to quality weather and climate information to safeguard their health, safety and security, as well as their social and economic well-being.

Consistent with the structure outlined in our recent Reports on Plans and Priorities (RPP) and Departmental Performance Reports (DPRs), the Weather and Environmental Predictions business line is reporting on a limited number of priority areas -high impact weather and related hazards; science capacity, modernization and service improvement. This logic structure is shown in the Tables and performance comments that follow.

• Weather Forecasts and Observations:
  http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/canada_e.html
• Meteorological Service of Canada:
  http://www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/contents_e.html
• Meteorological Service of Canada Annual Reports:
  http://www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/information_publications_e.html
• Air Quality Services:
  http://www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/aq_smog/index_e.cfm
• Top 10 Weather Stories:
  http://www.msc.ec.gc.ca/media/top10/index_e.html
  
  MSC Publications:
  
  
• MSC Atmospheric and Climate Science: Research Making a Difference:
  http://www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/acsd/publications/RMD_msc_report/ RMD_toc_e.html or
  http://www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/acsd/publications/RMD_msc_report/ RMD_Eng.pdf
• Threats to Water Availability in Canada
  http://www.nwri.ca/threats2full/intro-e.html
  
  

5.3.1 Key Result: Reduced Impact of Weather and Hazards
Reduced impact of weather and related hazards on health, safety and the economy

High Impact Weather and Related Hazards

What is the issue?

The risks to health, safety, property and the economy from naturally occurring environmental hazards, such as ice storms, floods, drought, and wind, are increasing. Other environmental hazards such as poor air quality may be produced or intensified by human activity. Property and economic losses due to environmental hazards have increased dramatically in recent years. Canadians are becoming more vulnerable to high-impact weather and related hazards because of growing urban density, ageing infrastructure and the creation of complex but vulnerable production and delivery systems.

Data source: Emergency Preparedness Canada Adapted by Environment Canada

According to the Insurance Bureau of Canada, Canadian governments have spent an average of $500 million a year over the past number of years to repair damage caused by extreme weather and disaster recovery payments from insurance companies and taxpayers doubled every five years throughout the 1980s and 1990s.

What are we doing about it?

Environment Canada works in partnership with others to improve Canadians' capacity to anticipate, mitigate, withstand, adapt to and recover from high-impact events and related hazards by improving lead time, accuracy, utility and satisfaction with warnings. To achieve this goal, our broad strategies include:

• Science strategies that improve prediction capability and monitoring technologies that help increase lead times;
  
  
• Outreach strategies
  
  for public alerts and targeted communications to communities most at risk; and
• Service strategies to inform first responders, including police, fire, medical, emergency officials and government service personnel, to provide them with critical weather warning information.
  
  

What have we achieved?

The MSC has responded to an extraordinary series of weather events in the past year, while maintaining a focus on improvements in science, outreach, and service strategies.

According to MSC's climatologists, this past year was one of Canada's most extreme and expensive years for weather (Environment Canada's Top Ten Weather Stories of 2003). The fires in B.C. alone cost $500 million to fight, resulted in at least $250 million in insured property losses, and led to the evacuation of more than 50,000 British Columbia residents. It was the second largest evacuation in Canadian history behind the evacuation of Manitoba residents when the Red River flooded Winnipeg in 1950. Hurricane Juan placed second on the list; it was the most destructive storm to hit Halifax in over a century, causing eight deaths, more than $182 million in property losses, and damaging or destroying more than 100 million trees.

The MSC provided continuous information and support to Canadians and special partners throughout the events of 2003 (including throughout the August 2003 power outage in Eastern Ontario). Canada has rarely seen a year with such extreme weather conditions as this past year with associated impacts on our health and safety, businesses, the economy, and the environment.

Major 2003-2004 Performance Accomplishments

Science Strategies

Applying Weather Science in Emergency Events: When devastating forest fires burned in several areas of southern and southeast British Columbia in August and September 2003, MSC's Pacific and Yukon Region staff at the Mountain Weather Centre in Kelowna worked long hours to provide meteorological support for firefighter and public safety use. At the peak of the crisis, MSC staff in Vancouver and Edmonton assisted by taking on Kelowna's forecasting workload for northern B.C. and the Yukon, while the Victoria service unit dealt with information requests from the media. Extra soundings from the Kelowna Upper Air Station were provided to assist the fire weather forecasters. Shortly after the Kelowna fire was brought under control, another major burn was triggered near the city of Cranbrook in southeastern BC. The Emergency Response mobile upper air station was deployed by MSC staff to provide upper air data. The provision of accurate wind and temperature forecasts and observations by the MSC enabled firefighting activities, including evacuation orders, to be optimized. All MSC forecasters involved were presented with regional awards in September 2003 in recognition of their efforts.

Science for Municipal Decision-Makers: The Meteorological Service of Canada, in partnership with Emergency Management Ontario, has made scientific information on atmospheric hazards available to all municipalities in Ontario. The atmospheric hazards web site³⁶ includes maps and co-recognition software (cumulative hazards). This information will help municipalities assess current hazards as part of the detailed risk assessment legally required from each municipality by December 2004 under the new Emergency Management Act. Gaps have been identified that will enable future development of new maps and knowledge so that comprehensive atmospheric hazards science is available for municipal decision-makers.

Study Pinpoints Lightning Hot Spots: Lightning flashes occur in Canada about 2.7 million times per year. Lightning strikes kill approximately six Canadians each year, seriously injure about 70 people and ignite some 4,000 forest fires.

Information on the location, strength and timing of lightning is important to operations that are vulnerable to direct hits or to fluctuations in electric power. For example, the aviation industry relies on it to protect aircraft and ground crews, while forestry and parks services use it to determine where lightning-induced fires are most likely to occur.

An MSC study conducted in 2003-2004³⁷ identifies areas of Canada where lightning occurs most often. The study's findings are based on observations collected by the Canadian Lightning Detection Network over the past five years. The network has 83 sensors located across Canada and forms the northern half of a continental network that is the largest of its kind in the world.

Outreach Strategies

International Hurricane Workshop: In November 2003, the MSC hosted the second International Workshop on Extra-tropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones (IWET-II) in collaboration with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Search and Rescue Secretariat. The workshop aimed to improve the understanding and prediction of transitioning hurricanes, a problem of particular importance to the east coast of Canada. Advances and challenges in researching and forecasting these unique storms were shared through presentations, forums and hands-on activities. The conference concluded with a discussion on future research and collaboration, with plans to establish an international web site on extra-tropical transition. The MSC's hurricane experts will carry out more research flights during the 2004 hurricane season.³⁸

Project OPPortunity: Highway 401, from Windsor, Ontario to the Quebec border, is a major transportation route. Following a fog-related accident near Windsor in the fall of 1999, a coroner's inquest recommended that Environment Canada investigate ways to work more closely with the Ontario Provincial Police (OPP) in the provision of weather information. Project OPPortunity creates relationships between the OPP officers who patrol the highway and the MSC meteorologists who forecast the weather. Services established in 2003-2004 include a password-protected web page displaying current weather observations and weather warnings, forecasts, radar and satellite imagery and the automated delivery of specific weather warnings affecting the OPP dispatch area. There is also a web-based reporting tool that allows the OPP to notify the MSC of critical weather events reported by the OPP. This information can then be incorporated into MSC severe weather warnings and statements if appropriate.

Service Strategies

Scientific data is critical to the environmental prediction process. In Canada, information on weather, air quality, ice, snow and water is gathered through an array of observation networks, some based on the ground or in water and others operating from the upper atmosphere and space. The following section highlights some of the monitoring work that we undertook in 2003-2004.

Measurement of Mercury in the Low Arctic: In 1999, experiments conducted by the MSC in Northern Quebec showed that atmospheric mercury depletion in the spring contributes to the contamination of snow and meltwater. Measurements taken in 2003-2004 also show that atmospheric mercury deposited on snow in the spring may contribute to increased mercury concentration in Arctic vegetation, including the mosses and lichens that caribou consume.

AVOS System Installations: The Automatic Voluntary Observing Ships System (AVOS) is an automatic weather observing station installed on-board selected ships around the world. It automatically transmits regular observations including pressure, temperature, humidity, wind, sea temperature, as well as the ship's position, speed and direction of motion. Values for additional parameters such as visibility and sky and ice conditions can be added manually.

The MSC has selected 75 ships for AVOS installations based on their travel routes and sailing frequency. The goal of this initiative is to maximize the number and quality of observations in data-sparse areas, primarily Canada's North and Canadian coastal waters, thereby leading to improved marine forecasts.

In the first year of a three-year funding initiative from the New Search and Rescue Initiatives Fund, six AVOS systems were installed, for a total of 20 AVOS-equipped ships by the end of 2003-2004. Future funding will provide for 18 more systems over three years, with the MSC covering all installation costs.

Improved Satellite Data for Ice Forecasting: The MSC monitors ice and iceberg conditions in Canadian coastal waters to support year-round marine activities. In 2003, the MSC began receiving and analyzing daily Envisat synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite images. Ice conditions are monitored primarily through the analysis of daily satellite images from Canada's RADARSAT-1 satellite, now nearing the end of its mission life. The RADARSAT-2 mission is scheduled to launch and begin operations in 2005. By tapping into the Envisat data stream in the interim, the MSC has ensured a continual flow of SAR satellite imagery for ice monitoring in the event of a gap between Canada's RADARSAT-1 and RADARSAT-2 missions. Currently, the Envisat images are being ordered to complement the RADARSAT-1 imagery, thus providing timelier and wider satellite coverage for ice operations.

MSC Supercomputer: The MSC operates one of the most powerful computers in Canada. It runs simulations of the atmosphere and produces environmental forecasts 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. On December 25, 2003, nearly four years after the project began, the Supercomputer Replacement Project was officially completed with the acceptance of the new IBM system. The new system is 2.5 times more powerful than the previous one. Nearly 50 MSC employees were involved in implementation of the system, which included determining user requirements for the next decade and preparing technical specifications. Implementation culminated with a year-long system installation, system performance verification and conversion process

This new technology means that scientific improvements that have been developed can be transferred to operations at an accelerated pace over the next year, resulting in more accurate forecasts in the one-to-five day range, as well as allowing new techniques to extend forecasts to ten days. Not only will the MSC's forecasting capacity and accuracy improve, its research will be greatly enhanced as well. The new computer will allow the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) in Victoria, one of the biggest users of the supercomputing facility, to push the boundaries of climate change research.

Forecaster's Workstation Project: The MSC started a project in 2003-2004 to provide tools for operational meteorologists to access and analyze data and to generate products. The MSC joined a consortium of the German, Swiss and Danish meteorological services to develop this software. The first version of the software will be available for operational testing early in 2005 prior to the start of operational deployment late in 2005-2006.

5.3.2 Key Result: Adaptation to Changes
Adaptation to day-to-day and longer-term changes in atmospheric, hydrological and ice conditions

Building Science Capacity

What is the issue

Climate variability, air quality and high-profile weather events impact Canadians and these issues are of interest to several sectors, including agriculture, shipping, construction, media, health, environmental conservation, forestry and recreation. These sectors seek longer lead times, increased accuracy for warnings, increased predictive capacities for long term climate and environmental conditions, and improved ability to predict the presence and levels of threats in air and water. As a result, the Meteorological Service of Canada's research and development activities continue to be vital for the health and safety of the public and for informed policy formulation by federal, provincial and local governments.

What are we doing about it?

The MSC conducts research to provide Environment Canada with a solid scientific foundation upon which to build policies and strategies that safeguard our environment and protect human health. It conducts research in a wide variety of areas related to priority issues of the Department including meteorology, air quality; climate change; and impacts and adaptation. More specifically, the MSC undertakes research and development related to severe weather, numerical weather and environmental prediction, data assimilation, satellite meteorology, radar meteorology and cloud physics with the goal of improving weather and environmental predictions in Canada.

What have we achieved?

The MSC is recognized internationally for world-class weather prediction services and excellence in atmospheric science research. Our research and development programs are regarded as fundamentally sound and responsive to the needs of Environment Canada and Canadian citizens. In 2001, a peer review of MSC's research and development activities by external and international experts highlighted our world class and leading edge work in many areas of atmospheric and climate science.³⁹

A 2003-2012 Strategic Plan for the MSC Research and Development Program has been developed.⁴⁰ As well, Environment Canada funding of the Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Science (CFCAS) was extended through 2010. CFCAS will promote funding opportunities through partnerships with universities. Several million dollars of funding has been granted in areas related to heavy precipitation analysis and prediction, behaviour of tropical cyclones in the middle latitudes, and severe summer and winter storms in the Great Lakes Basin.

In the past year, the MSC has focused its scientific work on areas that include ongoing peer review processes, collaboration with academia, enhanced client outreach, and strategic science planning.

Major 2003-2004 Performance Accomplishments

Meteorology

Meteorology for Offshore Oil and Gas Review: For the past two years, MSC's Pacific and Yukon Region has led the meteorological input into the B.C. government-initiated review of the West Coast Moratorium on Oil and Gas Drilling and Exploration. During 2003-2004, MSC staff analyzed the meteorological knowledge gaps related to conducting safe and environmentally responsible hydrocarbon activities on the B.C. coast. Although the full consideration of the moratorium has not concluded, it reached a critical stage in October 2003, culminating in the Royal Society of Canada hearings commissioned by the B.C. government. The MSC made presentations to the Royal Society of Canada Expert Panel on Science Issues Related to the Moratorium at which meteorological knowledge gaps were discussed.

Air Quality

Initiatives Supporting the Border Air Quality Strategy: A series of projects designed to better understand the movement of air pollution and its effects on transborder air quality is underway.⁴¹ In June 2003, Canada and the U.S. agreed to improve transborder air quality by implementing the Border Air Quality Strategy. Projects include a Georgia Basin/Puget Sound International Airshed pilot project that focuses on reducing particulate matter and toxic emissions from diesel fuels and marine vessels.

In February 2004, the MSC participated in the Windsor Air Quality Symposium that focused on achieving a better understanding of the current state of air quality in the Windsor Essex County area. The MSC is working on innovative technologies to measure air pollution at the Canada-U.S. border and other areas by introducing a vehicle that has the capacity to take real-time measurements while in motion. The project is the first of its kind and will provide more accurate data to pinpoint the source and type of air pollutants and determine the level of human exposure.

MSC Participation in SCISAT Satellite Mission: The MSC is a world leader in ozone research, and provides the global calibration source for Brewer ozone measurements at approximately 100 stations around the world. In August 2003, Canada launched its SCISAT satellite. The satellite will study changes in the earth's ozone layer with emphasis on the Arctic. This research is important because severe thinning of the Arctic ozone layer could become more apparent in the future due to the emission of industrial chemicals. Additionally, preliminary study findings suggest that climate change may be altering the Arctic atmosphere, making it more susceptible to ozone loss. The SCISAT satellite was developed by the Canadian Space Agency and carries two ozone-measuring instruments including MAESTRO (Measurements of Aerosol Extinction in the Stratosphere and Troposphere Retrieved by Occultation), developed by Environment Canada and MSC scientists.

Climate Change

The MSC has an internationally respected global climate-modelling group, the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CCCma), located at the University of Victoria. The CCCma is a key player in the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and disseminates extensive climate change information to university researchers, private industry and the public from its popular web site.⁴² The Centre interacts extensively with the university and with the Department of Fisheries and Oceans' Institute for Ocean Sciences.

Studies Show Human Footprint on Climate: Much of Canada has experienced increasing temperatures during the past half century. Globally, human activity has been identified as the cause of these temperature increases. However, attributing the cause of such changes over smaller areas - such as individual continents or countries - has until recently, been extremely difficult. The signal of climate change is small in relation to natural climate variations on these scales. MSC scientists have shown for the first time that temperature increases in North America during the past 50 years are linked to increased emissions of greenhouse gases. They have shown that this link can also be made for temperature increases in the Arctic and in Eurasia.

Greenhouse gas emissions may also affect other aspects of the climate, for example, atmospheric circulation. A study conducted by an MSC scientist, in collaboration with researchers at the University of Victoria and the U.K. Met Office, demonstrates that a human footprint is now detectable in sea-level pressure data collected globally over the past 50 years. This is the first study to formally detect a human effect on the global climate that does not use temperature data.

These detection results demonstrate convincingly that climate models are able to simulate observed changes in the climate system caused by increased emissions of greenhouse gases. These successes in turn increase our confidence in projections of future climate change and their use as a sound scientific basis for the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Climate Change Indicators: the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment showcases long-term climate data from the MSC in a federal-provincial-territorial report. The report, Climate, Nature, People: Indicators of Canada's Changing Climate,⁴³ examines changes in 17 climate and climate-related indicators in the 20th century. An MSC scientist was the federal co-chair for the project, which took over three years to complete. Several MSC employees were members of the Climate Change Indicators Task Group that directed and reviewed the report.

The report suggests that the climate in many regions of Canada is changing, but that the rate, extent, and impact of change varies from one area to another. Nearly all of Canada has become warmer and wetter over the past century. Sea surface temperatures rose substantially on the west coast, but changed little on the east coast. This warming trend has had a variety of impacts, including a shorter ice season, rising sea levels, shrinking glaciers, a longer growing season and reduced heating needs in most parts of the country. ⁴⁴

Assessment of Energy Sector Impacts in Canada: The MSC is the key partner in the "Historical and future climates for the assessment of energy sector impacts in Canada" project funded by the Program of Energy Research and Development (PERD). The project's main objective is to develop a nationally consistent set of energy sector scenarios of historical and future climate that are made available to impact researchers/users. These scenarios will address the needs of energy sector researchers and decision-makers and will be consistent with other sectoral impacts information being developed within the Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project.

A web-based workshop "Climate scenarios for the Canadian energy sector" was held and a synthesis report has been prepared by the MSC based on the discussions at the workshop. In order to facilitate analyses of historical climate data and construction of scenarios, the statistical software STECA (Statistical Tool for Extreme Climate Analysis) has been developed. The MSC analyzed the historical climate of 466 stations; this analysis is available on the CCIS web site. ⁴⁵

Carbon Sinks in Canada: The MSC, with funding from the Action Plan 2000 on Climate Change and the Program of Energy Research and Development (PERD), is a national leader in measuring and modelling the carbon, water and energy cycles of the Canadian boreal forest. Since 1997, Environment Canada has led the Boreal Ecosystem Research and Monitoring Sites (BERMS) program in collaboration with the Canadian Forest Service, Parks Canada and several Canadian universities. BERMS is the flagship flux station of the Fluxnet-Canada Research Network, a new national network that is studying the influence of climate and disturbances on carbon cycling in forest and peatland ecosystems. The BERMS region in central Saskatchewan has become a "super-site" for collaborative research, as the tower network and auxiliary observations provide a research database suitable for other environmental studies. The BERMS data is being used to strengthen our understanding of the key processes that control the forest's carbon and water cycles, including disturbance by fire and harvest, climate warming and drought.⁴⁶

Hydrology

Threats to Water Availability in Canada: In 2002, Environment Canada organized a workshop to discuss the threats to the availability of fresh water in Canada and released a national science assessment entitled Threats to Sources of Drinking Water and Aquatic Ecosystem Health in Canada.⁴⁷ In March 2004, Environment Canada released a companion assessment called Threats to Water Availability in Canada. Leading Environment Canada scientists directed production of these peer-reviewed documents. Written by approximately 70 experts from academia, industry and various levels of government, the reports provide an overview of the current knowledge, trends and research gaps for each of 15 key threats. Ultimately, the assessments are intended to assist decision-makers, resource managers and the research community in developing future research directions and priorities and sound management policies and practices. The reports are an important first step in identifying and managing threats to Canada's water sources.

• See Section 5.2.3 for more information on Environment Canada's water initiatives.
  
  

5.3.3 Modernization of the Meteorological Service of Canada
Implementing Change … Modernizing the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC)

Modernization

The Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) is one of the most sophisticated weather and hydrometric services in the world with a $337 million technological infrastructure that operates without interruption 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. The MSC's roles, responsibilities and reputation set high expectations for continued exemplary service as well as for ongoing improvements into the future. Our operating environment (including the increased frequency and severity of extreme weather and environmental hazards, the need to adapt to a changing climate and human and capital rust out concerns) also provides drivers for modernization.

In 2003, following a comprehensive assessment of the existing state of the organization and the expectations for the future, the Meteorological Service of Canada began implementing a transformation agenda focused on delivering:

• A more sustainable organization and infrastructure;
  
  
• Improved services for Canadians and key stakeholders; and
  
  
• Strengthened linkages among production, science and service.
  
  

The modernization of the MSC was advanced in 2003-2004 through our efforts to address succession planning and expertise-renewal issues, to restore infrastructure, and to develop and implement plans for new services and outreach activities. Specific areas of service improvement in the past year included:

• Attention to high-impact weather, precipitation forecasts, improving lead times for warnings, and providing new products and services;
  
  
• Reviewing options for new services such as road weather information systems;
  
  
• Quality of service improvement through verification systems and surveys;
  
  
• New and strengthened partnerships with media, private sector and emergency organizations;
  
  
• Optimizing distribution channels such as radio, telephone and Internet; and
  
  
• Initiating a life-cycle management approach to ensure the sustainability of the organization through the modernization of infrastructure, technology and expertise.
  
  

Advances in science and technology as well as the different ways in which governments deliver services (e.g. through increased multilateral and bilateral collaboration, and public/private partnerships with academia, citizens, stakeholders and other jurisdictions) present new opportunities and challenges for the Meteorological Service of Canada.

What is the issue?

A cornerstone of government is to reduce social and economic vulnerability by providing federal services for the safety and security of Canadians. In the 130 years since the Meteorological Service of Canada was created, periodic updates, improvements, reorganizations and recruitment have been used to try to keep its services modern and adaptive to changing economic and social needs. The MSC needs a broad-based solution to manage the threat posed by infrastructure and human-resource challenges, and to maintain the integrity of Canada's weather and water service.

What are we doing about it?

Environment Canada's broad policy and program strategies in addressing the transition of the MSC focus on:

• Consolidating and modernizing forecast operations (including automation);
  
  
• Creating National Service Offices and strengthening outreach capacity (weather preparedness);
  
  
• Creating National Laboratories (linking science/production/service);
  
  
• Addressing the MSC's monitoring capacity;
  
  
• Introducing product and service enhancements; and
  
  
• Restoring and developing key skill sets for MSC staff
  
  

What have we achieved?

The MSC has long been a leader in communications and has a history of dedication to service supported by science. In March 2003, following extensive work to design a sustainable weather service, the Minister of the Environment announced an investment in the Meteorological Service of Canada of $75 million over the next five years and an additional $5 million annually thereafter. In 2003-2004, the MSC focused its modernization efforts in priority areas, including the recruitment and training of meteorologists and hydrologists, and the completion of the National Radar Project.

Major 2003-2004 Performance Accomplishments

Maintaining Expertise

Meteorologist Recruitment and Training: The departure of staff through retirements and organizational change presents a significant risk in terms of lost knowledge and expertise. The MSC is working to prevent the gradual loss of professional and technical skills by implementing effective succession planning and human resource management practices. To ensure that the MSC maintains the expertise it requires in the future, new scientists, meteorologists, and technicians are being recruited and trained. In the past year, recruitment of technical and professional personnel continued with the hiring of 21 meteorologists.

Training and Professional Development: The Science-Operations Connection held in Toronto in February 2004, was attended by over 120 operational meteorologists, MSC managers and atmospheric research scientists from across Canada. The goals of the forum, the second of its kind, included developing a common vision amongst researchers, forecasters and managers on the role and connections between the MSC's new National Labs and its new Storm Prediction Centres. The forum allowed operational meteorologists and research scientists to discuss what they need from each other, and what is needed from MSC management to make possible the connection between operational meteorology and research. The Connection was a success and a knowledge-sharing experience for both operational meteorologists and researchers.

Infrastructure Changes - Modernizing Networks

National Radar Project: Under the MSC's seven-year, $34.9 million National Radar Project, all weather radars have been successfully converted to Doppler Radar effective March 2004. The National Radar Project finished on time and under budget. The Doppler Radar network extends from St. John's, Newfoundland to Victoria, British Columbia and provides coverage for 98 % of the country's population and over 28 % of Canada's land mass. Prior to its completion, the radar network provided coverage to 49 % of Canadians and only 1.1 % of Canada's land mass. Improvements in the detection and prediction of environmental hazards, such as severe weather and floods, will be possible as a result of our new Doppler radar capabilities.⁴⁸

Canada's Global Climate Observing System Surface Network in the North: Action Plan 2000 on Climate Change financed the upgrade of eight Global Climate Observing System Surface Network (GSN) sites and the installation of seven new sites north of 60o. To have adequate global coverage, the GCOS goal is to have a monitoring station in each 5x5 degree grid for the world. Canada's regional coverage does not meet this standard. There are large geographical gaps in the north that hamper the MSC's ability to understand environmental change and its implications. Existing GSN stations, which primarily provide temperature and total precipitation datasets, have been upgraded to include the measurement of wind speed and direction, humidity, rate-of-rainfall, snow cover and radiation. These enhanced datasets are needed to effectively document and understand climatic processes. When completed next year, the project will add 22 new GSN sites to Canada's high latitudes and upgrade 23 others. These stations will become part of Canada's commitment to the GCOS GSN that includes 54 stations located south of 60^o.

Innovation Through Technology

Canadian Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay (AMDAR) Program: The Meteorological Service of Canada is engaged in the development of a composite upper air observing system made up of conventional sources and new technologies. The most promising of these new technologies is the Canadian Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay (AMDAR) Program that involves reporting upper air weather observations from commercial aircraft.

Implementation of the AMDAR Program in Canada consists of setting up the proper infrastructure and logistics, including agreements with Canadian air carriers and data-link service providers to provide aircraft data in real-time. This data is used by the MSC for assimilation into Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, leading to potential improvements in the quality of weather forecasts and warnings.

The development of the Canadian AMDAR Program advanced significantly in 2003-2004 with the deployment of the AMDAR technology on 10 Canadair Regional Jet aircraft from Jazz and the upgrade of the DHC-8's avionics by Jazz that will allow for the expansion of AMDAR to their full fleet of DHC-8 aircraft. It is expected that the AMDAR program with Jazz will be fully operational with 83 aircraft reporting AMDAR data on a continuous basis by December 2004.⁴⁹

The SCRIBE Weather Forecast Product Expert System: The MSC has spent more than 10 years designing and improving SCRIBE, a computer application that can automatically generate a suite of forecast products based on input from Numerical Weather Prediction models and observations and forecaster expertise. SCRIBE output is produced in digital format and allows the MSC to generate many types of forecasts, from public to marine, simultaneously in both official languages. SCRIBE is currently being implemented as one of the main production tools at MSC forecast offices in the regions. Input from the operational forecasters who use it has been an essential and invaluable part of the development of this groundbreaking technology.

Service Improvement

What is the issue

Improving Canadians' capacity to anticipate, mitigate, withstand, and recover from high-impact weather and related hazards contributes to healthy communities where threats from environmental hazards are minimized

What are we doing about it?

• Improve the quality of products and services;
  
  
• Improve science;
  
  
• Find innovative ways to deliver these products and services to the public, private and academic sectors; and
  
  
• Strengthen partnerships and develop enhanced capacity within the private meteorological sector.
  
  

What have we achieved?

Each year the MSC issues approximately 14,000 severe weather warnings and 3,500 ice hazard warnings, and provides about 500,000 public weather forecasts, 200,000 marine weather forecasts and 400,000 aviation forecasts. Surveys indicate that 92 per cent of Canadians consult at least one weather forecast every day.

Mass media is the primary means by which MSC weather information reaches Canadians. The media's role is vital to ensuring that Canadians receive weather information - particularly extreme weather and climate warnings - in a timely manner. Weather information can also be accessed via the following Environment Canada sources:

• Internet: The weather office web site http://www.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca is one of the federal government's most frequently used Internet sites, with over 3 billion hits per year
  
  
• Telephone: Free recorded messages provide basic public forecasts and a 1-900 user-pay service enables callers to speak directly to a meteorologist 24 hours a day.
  
  
• Weatheradio: Bilingual weather information is continually broadcast over Weatheradio VHF frequencies.
  
  

Some of the work that we undertook in 2003-2004 to improve the quality of our services, to encourage innovation in service delivery and to continue strengthening our partnerships is highlighted below.

Major 2003-2004 Performance Accomplishments

Improve the Quality of Products and Services

Online Products and Services: The weather office web site continued to grow in popularity with an average of 325,000 visits per day in 2003-2004. The number of visits increased dramatically on significant weather days, such as the days leading up to the arrival of Hurricane Isabel in September 2003. The operation and maintenance of the weather office web site are highly complex due to the automated processes required to continually update the information with Canada's changing weather. Investments in 2003-2004 in the web site have resulted in a significant increase in the site's dependability and capacity.⁵⁰

Cooperative Management of Information on Water: The national hydrometric program is an example of the cooperative management of Canada's water resources by the federal and provincial governments. It provides for the collection, interpretation, and dissemination of surface water quantity data and information

The hydrometric program is carried out under formal agreements between Environment Canada and each of the provinces and Indian and Northern Affairs Canada (representing the territories). The agreements provide for the collection of surface water quantity and sediment data on a national basis, with costs shared according to specific interests and needs

Under the agreements, the federal government publishes the data that has been collected according to national standards. The data is stored in the National Water Data Archive (also known as the HYDAT database). The archive contains daily, monthly and instantaneous data for streamflow, water level and sediment data for over 2,500 active and 5,500 discontinued hydrometric monitoring stations across Canada. Since 2003-2004, all historical streamflow and water level data can be accessed on-line along with period-of-record statistics for most stations.⁵¹

Historical Weather and Climate Data: A new web site provides public access to historical weather and climate data from the MSC's national climatological database.⁵² The number of page views for the MSC's climate site increased six-fold after the launch of this web site. In total, in 2003-2004, the public was provided with over 13 million separate pages of information about the Canadian climate. So far, January 2004 was the busiest month for the web site.

The Meteorological Service of Canada delivers a broad spectrum of other up-to-date climate products and services to the Canadian public and users in the climate science community. Products that are delivered to Canadians via the Internet or other electronic means include:

• The Climate Trends and Variations Bulletin is published regularly on the Internet.⁵³ The Bulletin summarizes recent seasonal and annual climate information for Canada in an easily understandable format with text, maps, and graphs in the context of historical measurements.
  
  

• Authoritative information for Canadians on the El-Nino/La-Nina phenomenon and its influence on our climate.⁵⁴
  
  
• Projections of the potential effects of greenhouse gas warming on the climates of Canada and the world. These projections, produced with Canada's state-of-the-art climate model, are available from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis and are used extensively across Canada and abroad by students and researchers.⁵⁵
  
  

Service Innovation

Road Weather Information System (RWIS): One of the key concerns expressed by Canadians in a 2002 national survey conducted for the MSC is an interest in safer winter roads. In 2003-2004, the MSC worked closely with provincial and territorial governments and Transport Canada to develop agreements to quality assure, archive and share data from road weather observation networks. Data from the network, combined with forecasts of road temperature and conditions, will allow road maintainers to proactively treat the pavement in such a way as to prevent icing, improve safety and reduce the amount of salt used on roadways.⁵⁶

Retrofitting Observational Networks: MSC's ability to produce high-quality products and services is heavily dependent on the quality and quantity of the data it acquires. To achieve the goal of invigorating the MSC's monitoring capacity, work has begun on retrofitting the observational networks. In 2003-2004, 21 climate stations and 14 surface weather stations were upgraded. These upgrades are a first step in applying a life-cycle management approach to these networks to ensure their integrity and usefulness well into the future.⁵⁷

UV Program Renewal: During the spring and summer seasons, the UV Index portion of the Public Forecast informs Canadians of the hazards of ultraviolet radiation. In spring 2004, the forecast methodology for the UV Index was improved: it takes into account elevation, and, in part, reflection of UV radiation by snow on the ground, two factors not previously included. Additionally, the scheme to determine the UV Index based on observations from Brewer spectrophotometers was improved. These changes will result, particularly in the spring, in a forecast UV Index that can be somewhat higher than in the past. As well, the criteria used to include the UV Index in public forecasts have been changed. The index is now included, rounded to the nearest whole number, whenever it is forecast to be three (the "moderate" category) or more, regardless of the season.⁵⁸

Strengthening Domestic and International Partnerships

The Meteorological Service of Canada works with partners in nearly all aspects of its operations. Partnerships help meet client and stakeholder needs and support outreach efforts that communicate weather, water, climate and other information to Canadians. The mass media, for example, is one of the MSC's most important partners in disseminating warnings and forecasts to Canadians. Research and development is done in collaboration with universities and/or research institutes. Water level monitoring activities rely heavily on partnerships with the provinces and territories.

The MSC's three biggest partners are NAV CANADA, the Department of National Defence and the Canadian Coast Guard.

Weather Services to NAV CANADA: In partnership with NAV CANADA, the privatized operator of the Canadian air navigation system, the MSC provides many of the specialized meteorological products and data services the aviation industry requires to operate safely and efficiently. Some of the products provided in whole or in part by MSC personnel include: graphical area forecasts for the entire country (including an outlook to 24 hours of weather, icing and turbulence conditions); 12 to 24 hour site-specific forecasts of ceiling, visibility, wind and weather for approximately 170 airports; and specialized thunderstorm and turbulence forecast charts for air-traffic flow management that ensure an effective and efficient use of airspace.

Through the agreement for aviation weather products and services, the MSC and NAV CANADA collaborate in a way that has distinct benefits for each. For example, the MSC relies on the NAV CANADA-funded aviation observing network for programs such as understanding climate change, while NAV CANADA benefits greatly from the MSC-funded upper-air observing network that leads to accurate reports and predictions of flight level wind conditions.

Operational Support to the Department of National Defence: Dedicated offices provide meteorological services to the army, navy and air force components of the Department of National Defence. Forecast, consultation services and data services are provided from these MSC offices situated in military facilities around the country to support domestic exercises and international peacekeeping responsibilities. For example, the MSC's Weather Services Centre (WSC) at the Trenton Air Force Base issued real-time forecasts to support Canadian Forces aviation operations in Afghanistan. The Weather Services Centres in Comox and Halifax provided detailed marine weather warning and forecast services to Canadian ships en-route to and from the Persian Gulf as part of Canada's contribution to the international efforts against terrorism.

Canadian Coast Guard: Working closely with the Canadian Coast Guard, the Canadian Ice Service provides information on past, present and future sea ice, lake ice and iceberg conditions in Canadian waters. This information is provided to marine operators, other government departments and other levels of government to enhance the safety and efficiency of marine operations in ice-encumbered waters. The Canadian Ice Service provides information services and scientific and technical expertise to support the effective operation of the Canadian Coast Guard's icebreaking program

Other Partnerships of Note in 2003-2004

North American Study on Aircraft Icing and Hazardous Winter Weather: Icing is a significant concern for aviation in Canada, particularly in the winter months when icing conditions are frequently encountered. The development of real-time icing detection/warning systems at airports could help mitigate icing-related incidents and accidents. The National Research Council Institute for Aerospace Research (NRC-IAR), the MSC and NASA's Glenn Research Center began a major North American scientific study aimed at better understanding of aircraft icing and hazardous winter weather. The $3 million Alliance Icing Research Study (AIRS II) focused on freezing rain and other severe winter weather and it was designed to improve air traffic safety through better forecasting and detection of winter weather hazards to aircraft. More than 50 researchers from four countries participated in AIRS II, which took place in the Ottawa, Mirabel, Eastern Ontario and Southern Quebec areas from November 2003 to April 2004. Ultimately, this study will help improve Environment Canada's ability to detect and forecast hazardous winter weather conditions such as freezing precipitation, icing, winds and snow in the airspace surrounding an airport.⁵⁹

Energy Sector Partnerships: The Wind Energy Simulation Tool (WEST), developed by the MSC, allows users to identify the most suitable location to install a wind turbine or wind farm. Since the development of the Wind Energy Simulation Tool, demands on the MSC by the wind energy sector have substantially increased. A wind energy Atlas has been developed for use by the industry, and specific studies have been carried out for Manitoba Hydro and the province of Quebec using WEST.

Industrial Research Chair in Extreme Weather: The Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council Industrial Chair in Extreme Weather is supported by Environment Canada, through the MSC, and by the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction. The Chair is held by Professor Ronald Stewart, a former senior MSC scientist, and will enhance the teaching and study of the causes and consequences of extreme weather events. The MSC is investing $500,000 over the next five years in this initiative.

International Partnerships: Canada, through the MSC, is a key player in international meteorological initiatives. Some of these activities are carried out under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). There are also many bilateral agreements with national meteorological and hydrological services of individual countries (for example, the Chinese Meteorological Authority, the U.S. National Weather Service, MétéoFrance) and other consortiums and working groups dedicated to the advancement of environmental prediction.

• At a July 2003 Ministerial Earth Observation Summit in Washington, 33 countries including Canada and over 30 international organizations endorsed a declaration for an expanded international effort to improve Earth observation capabilities by and for all nations. Canada is well placed to contribute to this effort, with recognized expertise in remote sensing, space technology, in situ monitoring and data processing and through its world class efforts in developing mathematical models of its atmosphere and oceans. The intergovernmental Group on Earth Observations (GEO), formed at the first Earth Observation Summit in July 2003, is responsible for developing a conceptual framework and a 10-year implementation plan for a comprehensive, coordinated and sustained global Earth Observation System of Systems. The Assistant Deputy Minister of the MSC is the GEO representative for Canada. The first interdepartmental workshop for the Canadian Group on Earth Observations was held at the Canadian Space Agency's headquarters in St. Hubert, Quebec, in January 2004.
  
  
• In 2002-2003, the MSC finalized a formal agreement with the U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to enhance the exchange and use of environmental data. As part of this agreement, the MSC's Canadian Ice Service is working with the U.S. Coast Guard to integrate the sea ice, lake ice and iceberg information that is available to the North American marine community. The goal of this collaboration is to improve the quality of information available to users while reducing duplication of effort and cost. This initiative, developed on the Great Lakes over the last three years and expanded to the Arctic in 2004, will be expanded to iceberg information in 2005. At this time, common production standards have been adopted and shared production is in place. Joint training activities are also under way. In the future, it is envisaged that development activities will be integrated, leading to a completely integrated production infrastructure.
  
  

• The MSC is actively involved in a World Meteorological Organization (WMO) initiative, the THORPEX program, to organize global weather research associated with high impact weather. As stated in the North American THORPEX regional plan, "…North America experiences diverse and severe weather including flash floods, droughts, tropical storms, hurricanes, hail, tornadoes, damaging winds, snow storms, blizzards, freezing rain, heat waves, "fire weather" and episodes of stable, stagnant weather that can cause fog or reduce air quality. THORPEX will make progress by enhancing international collaboration between the research and operational forecast communities and with users of forecast products. Specifically, THORPEX is designed to accelerate improvements in the accuracy of 1 to 14-day high-impact weather forecasts for the benefit of society and the economy…"
  
  

Strengthening Capacity in the Private Meteorological Sector: The private meteorological sector in Canada is small, but diverse. MSC continues to pursue stronger relationships with this sector by encouraging the development and use of value-added meteorological services. The Department is working to improve the sector's access to data and to identify new and emerging business opportunities for this sector.