Canada Gazette

The purpose of this proposed Order is the addition of the greenhouse gases (GHGs) specified in the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to Schedule 1 of the Canadian Environmental Protection Act, 1999 (CEPA 1999):

By adding the six GHG substances to Schedule 1, the Government enables the use of a variety of preventive or control actions under CEPA 1999.

These six substances, or groups of substances, were included within the Kyoto Protocol because they have significant global warming potentials (GWPs), are long-lived and, therefore, are of global concern. Furthermore, given the quantity of emissions expected over the next century, they have the potential to contribute substantially to climate change. GHGs, upon being emitted to the atmosphere, alter its composition, thereby affecting its chemical and physical properties. The radiative properties of GHGs and the role GHGs play in the energy balance of the Earth are well established. As a result of human activities, predominantly the combustion of fossil fuels, the atmospheric concentrations of GHGs have increased substantially since the onset of the industrial revolution. This has led to an enhanced greenhouse effect—or global warming—and other climatic changes.

The Montreal Protocol and international science assessment processes were used in the late eighties to identify the specific ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) that posed the most risk of harm to the stratospheric ozone layer, and these were subsequently added on Schedule 1 of CEPA 1999. A similar process is being proposed to add the Kyoto Protocol's basket of GHGs (i.e. CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, PFCs, HFCs and SF₆). The Kyoto GHGs are those that pose the most risk of harm with regard to climate change. The only other long-lived GHGs that have contributed significantly to climate change over the past century are the halocarbons—chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs)—which are already being controlled under the Montreal Protocol.

The Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC TAR) (see footnote 1) provides the scientific basis for the recommendation for adding the six GHGs identified in the Kyoto Protocol to Schedule 1 of CEPA 1999. The IPCC has concluded that the Earth's climate has already changed over the 20th century, and that the warming, at least that of the Northern Hemisphere, is likely unprecedented during the past 1 000 years. It further concludes that most of the warming of the past 50 years is likely to have been due to increases in human emissions of GHGs.

The IPCC has also clearly demonstrated that the amount of future global warming will be dependent on the amount of GHG that is emitted from human activity in the future. The aggregate quantity of emissions in the future will be influenced by development choices made by individual countries worldwide. In the absence of GHG policy interventions, even the most optimistic (i.e. lowest growth) emission scenarios indicate that atmospheric temperature will increase over the next 100 years and beyond. This warming of the Earth's atmosphere will be accompanied by other climatic changes that will impact on both the natural and human systems of the Earth.

In Moving Forward on Climate Change: A Plan for Honouring our Kyoto Commitment (www.climatechange.gc.ca), the Government has laid out a comprehensive strategy for reducing Canadian emissions of greenhouse gases.

The plan addresses a variety of sources of GHGs in Canada, such as transportation, energy, mining, manufacturing and residential sectors. One key aspect of the plan is to establish regulatory baselines for the largest producers of GHGs. These large producers are also known as "Large Final Emitters" (LFEs) of greenhouse gases. LFE sectors are those sectors with average annual emissions per facility of at least 8 kt of CO₂ equivalent (CO₂e), and average annual emissions per $1 000 of output of at least 20 kg of CO₂e. They are large contributors to our GHG emissions—just under 50 percent of total Canadian GHG emissions. Canada's LFEs include companies in the mining and manufacturing, oil and gas, and thermal electricity sectors. These sectors make an important contribution to Canada's economic base, but they must also play a significant role in meeting Canada's climate change goals.

The purpose of the LFE system is to secure emission reductions from Canada's largest emitters through a system that is market-based and in line with the Government of Canada's policy regarding Smart Regulations. The LFE system will achieve significant reductions in GHG emissions in a manner that supports the continued competitiveness of Canadian industries.

The LFE system will cover about 700 companies operating in Canada; 80 to 90 of these companies account for approximately 85 percent of the LFE GHG emissions.

In July of 2005, the Government published a Notice of Intent, outlining how the federal government plans to implement its climate change policy with respect to GHG emission reductions by LFEs. The Notice of Intent provided the following summary of the key points of the LFE system.

The proposed Order provides the enabling mechanism for implementing this strategy.

Under subsection 90(1) of CEPA 1999, a substance that meets the criteria set out in section 64 of CEPA 1999 can be added to Schedule 1 of CEPA 1999 by the Governor in Council on the recommendation of the ministers. It must be determined that a substance is entering or may enter the environment in a quantity or concentration or under conditions that

(a) have or may have an immediate or long-term harmful effect on the environment or its biological diversity;

(b) constitute or may constitute a danger to the environment on which life depends; or

Once a substance is added to Schedule 1 of CEPA 1999, the Government may proceed in developing risk management options.

There is growing evidence that climate change is already occurring and that the Earth's climate has changed since the pre-industrial era. Globally, average surface temperatures rose about 0.6°C over the 20th century, with North America warming by 0.7°C during the same period. Increases in minimum and maximum temperatures have been detected in Canada over the past 50 years, with larger increases observed for minimum temperatures. The warming has been accompanied by a suite of other changes in the climate system that together give a collective picture of a warming world. For example, there has also been an increase in the frost-free period and an increase in cloudiness. Precipitation in Canada has increased by an average of more than 10 percent over the 20th century, and heavy precipitation rates have increased as well. There have also been decreases in snow depth, in Arctic sea-ice extent and in the annual duration of lake and river ice cover. Most of the warming of the past 50 years is likely to have been due to increases in greenhouse gas concentrations. Atmospheric GHG concentrations and their radiative forcings have generally increased over the 20th century as a result of human activities. The rates of increases for carbon dioxide and methane are unprecedented.

It is clearly demonstrated that the amount of future global warming will be dependent on the amount of greenhouse gas from human activity that is emitted in the future. Carbon dioxide concentrations, globally averaged surface temperatures and sea level are projected to increase under all IPCC emission scenarios during the 21st century. The projected warming of 1.4–5.8°C over the period 1990 to 2100 is very likely to be without precedent during the last 10 000 years. Global mean sea level is projected to rise between 10 and 90 cm by the end of this century. The IPCC further makes a number of statements of relevance to countries like Canada. For example, it is very likely that nearly all land areas will warm more rapidly than the global average, particularly those at northern high latitudes in the cold season. There is also projected to be a decrease in diurnal (see footnote 2) temperature range in many areas, with nighttime lows increasing more than daytime highs. More intense precipitation events are very likely, and there is likely to be an increase in summer continental drying and associated risk of drought over most mid-latitude continental interiors. The Earth's cryosphere (snow, ice and permafrost) will continue to respond to the warming. The widespread retreat of glaciers and ice caps is projected to continue, as is the decrease in snow cover, permafrost and sea-ice extent.

These climatic changes have far reaching implications for the natural and human systems, which are likely to be adversely affected if no action is taken.

The Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) has prepared a synthesis report (see footnote 3) on the findings of the Third Assessment Report of IPCC in the context of CEPA. The purpose of the report is to assess whether the GHGs meet one or more of the criteria set out in section 64 of CEPA 1999 and considers only the scientific information presented in the IPCC TAR.

An organism will respond to a change in its environment, including climate change, either by migrating or adapting, depending, among other things, on the magnitude and rate of climate change. In the event where the organism is unable to respond in either of these two ways, its local population will face extinction. With regard to entire ecosystems, modeling studies have shown that migration of ecosystems is unlikely to occur. Instead, species composition and/or dominance within the system will change. The outcome of these changes, some of which may take many years, decades or even centuries to occur, will be ecosystems unlike those of today. As this process unfolds, there may be large scale losses of unique contemporary ecosystems over relatively short periods of time.

Based on the available international science presented in the IPCC TAR, there is high confidence in the collective evidence to support a conclusion that recent regional changes in temperature have had discernible impacts on many physical and biological systems. Examples of observational changes with linkages to climate change include shrinkage of glaciers; thawing of permafrost; (see footnote 4) shifts in ice freeze and break-up dates on rivers and lakes; increases in rainfall and rainfall intensity in most mid and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere; lengthening of growing seasons; and earlier flowering dates of trees, emergence of insects, and egg-laying in birds. In about 80 percent of the biological cases and about 99 percent of the physical cases, the changes are consistent with well-established relationships between temperature and physical and biological processes. The observed changes indicate a sensitivity in these systems to climate changes of a magnitude much smaller than those projected for the coming century.

The MSC synthesis report also indicates that according to the IPCC TAR, there is high confidence that diversity in ecological systems will be adversely affected by climate change and sea-level rise in the future, with an increased risk of extinction for some species currently listed as "critically endangered" and of currently "endangered" or "vulnerable" species becoming even rarer in the 21st century. Recent modeling studies continue to show potential for significant disruption of ecosystems under climate change. As a class of ecosystems, inland waters are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Within these systems, the impacts include reduction and loss of lake and river ice, loss of habitat for coldwater fish, and increases in extinctions and invasions of exotics. Other natural ecosystems at risk include coral reefs, mangroves, and other coastal wetlands; montane ecosystems that are restricted to the upper 200–300 m of mountainous areas; prairie wetlands; remnant native grasslands; ecosystems overlying permafrost; and ice edge ecosystems that provide habitat for polar bears and penguins. Many of these ecosystems exist within Canada.

The Arctic region is identified as being extremely vulnerable to climate change, and major physical and ecological impacts are expected to appear rapidly there as warming in northern high latitudes is expected to be greater than the global average. There will be different species compositions on land and sea, poleward shifts in species assemblages, and severe disruptions for communities of people who lead traditional lifestyles.

Direct impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture include changes to precipitation patterns, timing of snowmelt, glacier retreat, evaporation of soil moisture and surface water, and changes in crop yields. Climate change would further exacerbate the current water shortage and quality problems in many water-scarce areas of the world. Climate change is projected to reduce streamflow and groundwater recharge in many parts of the world. It is projected that approximately 1.7 billion people presently living in water-scarce regions of the world will increase to approximately 5 billion by the year 2025, depending on the rate of population growth.

Degradation of soil and water resources is one of the major future challenges for global agriculture. These processes are likely to be intensified by adverse changes in temperature and precipitation. Although some crops would benefit from modest warming and increases in CO₂, effects would vary among crops and regions. Some declines will occur due to drought in some areas, including parts of the Canadian Prairies. Overall climate change is likely to tip agriculture production in favour of well-to-do and well-fed regions at the expense of less well-to-do and less well-fed regions. By the 2080s, the additional number of people at risk of hunger as a result of climate change is estimated to be about 80 million.

Changes in extreme events and sea-level rise are arguably the most significant impacts of climate change for the environment on which human life depends, in the near term, having impacts on human safety and security as well as on the availability of fresh water, arable land, and agricultural productivity. People living in coastal zones will generally be negatively affected by sea-level rise. Highly diverse and productive coastal ecosystems, coastal settlements, and island states will continue to be exposed to pressures whose impacts are expected to be largely negative and potentially disastrous in some instances. Projected sea-level rise will increase the average annual number of people flooded in coastal storm surges. Tens of millions of people living in deltas, in low-lying coastal areas, and on small islands will face risk of displacement.

The vulnerability of human societies to climate extremes is demonstrated by the damage, hardship and death caused by events such as droughts, floods, heat waves, avalanches, and storms, hurricanes and cyclones. The vulnerability of human settlements along low-lying coastlines to the combined effects of sea-level rise and storm surges is a matter of these settlements, and the coastal resources they depend on, being threatened with flooding, wave damage and permanent inundation.

In the long term, the risk of large-scale, possibly abrupt and potentially irreversible (in human time scales) changes to critical components of the earth's climate system is of most relevance to the safety and security of human life. Examples of such changes include significant slowing of the thermohaline circulation, (see footnote 5) which would impact ocean biochemistry and regional climates of Northern Europe; large reductions in the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, which would lead to global sea-level rise measured in metres rather than centimetres; and accelerated global warming resulting from changes to the global carbon cycle with strong positive feedbacks to the climate system (e.g. release of stored carbon from arctic permafrost and release of methane hydrates from ocean sediments). If such changes were to occur, their impacts would be widespread and sustained. Depending on the rate and magnitude of such changes, the capacity for human and natural systems to adapt could be exceeded, resulting in substantial impacts.

Greenhouse gas forcing in the 21st century could set in motion large-scale, high-impact, non-linear, and potentially abrupt changes in physical and biological systems over the coming decades to millennia. Some of these changes have a low probability of occurrence during the 21st century; however, greenhouse gas forcing in the 21st century could set in motion changes that could lead to such transitions in subsequent centuries. Events of this type that might be triggered include complete or partial shutdown of the North Atlantic and Antarctic deep water formation, disintegration of the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, and major perturbations of biosphere-regulated carbon dynamics. Some of these changes could be irreversible over centuries to millennia. Although the probabilities of triggering such events are poorly understood, they should not be ignored, given the severity of their consequences.

If heat waves increase in frequency and intensity, as they are very likely to do, the risk of death and serious illness would increase, principally in older age groups and the urban poor. The greatest increases in thermal stress are forecast for mid- to high-latitude cities, especially in populations that have limited resources. The effects of an increase in heat waves often would be exacerbated by increased humidity and urban air pollution. There is medium to high confidence of expansion of areas of potential transmission of malaria and dengue by 2050 to 2100. An increase in deaths, injuries, and infections associated with extreme weather such as floods and storms could also occur as a result of climate change.

In Canada, the projected increased frequency and severity of heat waves may lead to an increase in illness and death, particularly among young, elderly and frail people, especially in large urban areas. Acclimatization may be slower than the rate of ambient temperature change. Vector-borne diseases, including malaria and dengue fever, may expand their ranges in the United States and may develop in Canada.

Based on the above and the more detailed scientific knowledge, as documented in the IPCC TAR and summarized in the MSC synthesis report, there is sufficient evidence to conclude that greenhouse gases constitute or may constitute a danger to the environment on which life depends, thereby satisfying criterion (b) as set out in section 64 of CEPA 1999.

In light of the above, if the Government were to take no further action for these substances or groups of substances, it would be unable to use CEPA 1999 Parts 5 and 11 as the basis of the LFE system. This is the preferred option, as stated in Moving Forward on Climate Change: A Plan for Honouring our Kyoto Commitment.

It should be noted that there are two routes to the management of Schedule 1 substances under CEPA. Schedule 1 substances that are persistent and bio-accumulative must be virtually eliminated. Other Schedule 1 substances may be controlled through the development of appropriate instruments or tools for the prevention and control of pollution. Such tools are developed through co-operative federal-provincial-territorial processes.

All of the GHGs of the Kyoto Protocol are persistent, but none are known to be bio-accumulative. These GHGs could therefore be managed under CEPA through preventive or control tools.

The addition of a substance to Schedule 1 legally enables the federal government to take appropriate actions and to make a full range of management instruments available under CEPA 1999.

There will be no incremental costs to the public, industry or governments associated with this proposed Order for adding the six GHG substances to Schedule 1 of CEPA 1999. The costs and benefits would be assessed during the risk management phase, when the Government will undertake an appropriate assessment of the potential impacts of a suite of instruments. These measures and technologies are expected to be considered in consultation with various federal government departments, provincial and territorial governments and other stakeholders.

As described above, this proposed Order is based on the international scientific knowledge presented in the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC, and it was not deemed necessary to undertake assessments of the six Kyoto GHGs specifically for Canada. Canada has been actively involved in the writing and reviewing process of all the reports published by the IPCC.

The IPCC does not conduct new research nor monitor climate-related data. Its mandate is to assess, on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis, the scientific, technical and socio-economic information on climate change that is available around the world in peer-reviewed literature, journals, books and, where appropriately documented, in industry literature and traditional practices. This approach ensures that IPCC reports provide balanced reporting of viewpoints and are policy-relevant but not policy-prescriptive or policy-driven.

The following brief description of the IPCC writing and review process highlights the scope of the consultations that take place prior to the publication of any IPCC report on climate change. (see footnote 6)

Approximately 1 000 experts from all over the world have been directly involved in drafting, revising and finalizing IPCC reports. In addition, about 2 500 experts participate in the review process. IPCC authors have been nominated by governments and by international organizations and come from universities, research centres, business and environmental associations, and other organizations in approximately 120 countries. Through this worldwide network, the IPCC seeks to represent all geographic regions and to reflect a diverse range of scientific, technical and socio-economic views and expertise.

Working groups, with lead authors for each chapter of the assessment reports, are established and are responsible for representing the range of prevailing scientific-technical viewpoints and expertise as well as ensuring appropriate representation of experts from developing and developed countries, and countries with economies in transition.

The lead authors write a first draft of the assessment report based mostly on peer-reviewed literature, making sure to include literature published in languages other than English. They also consider the most recent scientific findings and reports from national academies of sciences, industry and United Nations bodies, carefully weighing any lack of previous peer review. Diverging viewpoints that are scientifically sound are clearly identified in the draft text.

To ensure that they are credible, transparent and objective, IPCC reports pass through a rigorous two-stage review process.

During the first review, the drafts are circulated to specialists with significant expertise and publications in the field. The reviewers comment on the completeness and objectivity of the scientific and technical content. In the second stage, the revised drafts are then distributed to governments for government technical review and to all authors and expert reviewers. The expert and government comments are then incorporated into the final draft reports.

Concurrently with the preparation of the main report, a Summary for Policymakers is also prepared for the Assessment Report and Special Report, which has to be consistent with the full scientific and technical assessment. The Summaries for Policymakers undergo a simultaneous expert and government review. They are then approved by the working group, with the concurrence of the lead authors, to ensure that they are consistent with the underlying scientific-technical report. Finally, the Summaries for Policy-makers are formally accepted by the entire IPCC.

There are no compliance or enforcement requirements associated with Schedule 1 itself.

Cynthia Wright, Director General, Strategic Policy Directorate, Environmental Protection Service, Environment Canada, 351 Saint-Joseph Boulevard, 21st Floor, Gatineau, Quebec K1A 0H3, (819) 953-6830 (telephone), (819) 997-0449 (fax), Cynthia. Wright@ec.gc.ca (email), or Céline Labossière, Policy Manager, Regulatory and Economic Analysis Branch, Environment Canada, 10 Wellington Street, 24th Floor, Gatineau, Quebec K1A 0H3, (819) 997-2377 (telephone), (819) 997-2769 (fax), Celine. Labossiere@ec.gc.ca (email).

Notice is hereby given, pursuant to subsection 332(1) (see footnote a) of the Canadian Environmental Protection Act, 1999 (see footnote b), that the Governor in Council proposes, pursuant to subsection 90(1) of that Act, to make the annexed Order Adding Toxic Substances to Schedule 1 to the Canadian Environmental Protection Act, 1999.

Any person may, within 60 days after the date of publication of this notice, file with the Minister of the Environment comments with respect to the proposed Order or a notice of objection requesting that a board of review be established under section 333 of that Act and stating the reasons for the objection. All comments and notices must cite the Canada Gazette, Part I, and the date of publication of this notice, and be sent to the Director General, Strategic Policy Directorate, Environmental Protection Service, Department of the Environment, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0H3.

A person who provides information to the Minister of the Environment may submit with the information a request for confidentiality under section 313 of that Act.

ORDER ADDING TOXIC SUBSTANCES TO SCHEDULE 1 TO THE CANADIAN ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION ACT, 1999

1. Schedule 1 to the Canadian Environmental Protection Act, 1999 (see footnote 7) is amended by adding the following:

Carbon dioxide, which has the molecular formula CO₂

Methane, which has the molecular formula CH₄

Nitrous oxide, which has the molecular formula N₂O

Hydrofluorocarbons that have the molecular formula C_nH_xF_(2n+2-x) in which 0<n<6

The following perfluorocarbons:

(a) those that have the molecular formula C_nF_2n+2 in which 0<n<7;

(b) octafluorocyclobutane, which has the molecular formula C₄F₈.

Sulphur hexafluoride, which has the molecular formula SF₆

Layer of soil or rock, at some depth beneath the surface, in which the temperature has been continuously below 0°C for at least some years. It exists where summer heating fails to reach the base of the layer of frozen ground.

There are three main processes that make the oceans circulate: tidal forces, wind stress, and density differences. The density of sea water is controlled by its temperature (thermo) and its salinity (haline), and the circulation driven by density differences is thus called the thermohaline circulation.

The description of the IPCC consultation process draws directly from the IPCC brochure on "Introduction to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – 2003" (www.ipcc.ch/about/beng.pdf).