Information
November 2003
Pandemic Influenza
What is Pandemic Influenza?
Three or four times a century, a radical change occurs in the genetic material of the
influenza A virus and a new sub-type will suddenly appear. Because it is a radically different
strain, the protection and immunity that people have developed against influenza may not
protect them. Everyone is, therefore, susceptible to infection and will be at greater risk
of developing severe complications like pneumonia.
In such a situation, the virus may spread rapidly around the world, and an influenza pandemic
- may result.
How many Pandemics did we see in the 20th Century?
Three: 1918-1919, 1957-1958, 1968-1969
When do experts expect the next one?
Anytime. Pandemics are unpredictable in their timing but most experts agree that another
one is likely to occur within the next 5 to 10 years. This is based on the historical patterns
of pandemics - the average time elapsed between each of the last four pandemics was 25
years. It has been 34 years since the last pandemic.
What would happen during an Influenza Pandemic?
It is very difficult to estimate what might occur in the event of an influenza pandemic.
Experts believe that pandemic influenza could reach Canada within three months of being
detected anywhere in the world. It would have its maximum effect on the Canadian population
within 5-7 months.
Using information from the last three pandemics and a disease model developed by the US
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, a pandemic could potentially result in between
9,000 - 51,000 deaths in Canada if a vaccine were not available. A severe shortage of hospital
beds and health care workers could also occur.
Health Canada, in partnership with the provinces and territories, has a plan in place
to ensure appropriate steps are take to protect Canadians, including ensuring that influenza
vaccine is available to Canadians at the earliest possible time.
What can we do to prevent an Influenza Pandemic?
With our current knowledge, there is no way to prevent a pandemic from occurring. There
are, however, ways to lessen the impact and to decrease the number of deaths.
A global network of laboratories and surveillance systems coordinated by the World Health
Organization (WHO) is keeping a watchful eye for new influenza strains. When a suspected
pandemic strain emerges, international surveillance will provide Canada with an early warning
so that we can start vaccine production.
Immunization is the most effective way to minimize the impact of the pandemic on Canadians.
Does Canada have a Pandemic Influenza Plan?
Yes. Health Canada is working with its provincial and territorial health partners to finalize
the Pandemic Influenza Plan. It provides the basis for coordinated and collaborative preparations
and action by the provinces and territories, Health Canada and other federal agencies in
the event of a pandemic. The plan will be submitted to the Conference of Deputy Ministers
of Health for final approval by December 10th. If the plan is approved, it will be made
available to the public shortly thereafter.
Is Canada's Public Health System as up to date as it could be?
Public health involves anticipation, readiness planning, careful monitoring and surveillance,
effective research and diagnosis, as well as quarantine systems and medical care to contain
an outbreak.
SARS showed us where the gaps are and the Government of Canada addressing them. On November
19, the Minister announced measures that will result in more support for frontline workers
so that they have the tools they need to do their jobs effectively, better surveillance
measures, stronger laboratory capacity and more research.
Will Canada have sufficient vaccine if there is a pandemic event?
Health Canada is taking a leading role on vaccine procurement efforts and will ensure
that vaccines are available to all Canadians in the event of a pandemic. Canada currently
has agreements in place to rapidly produce large quantities of vaccine in the event they
are needed. Research and surveillance activities are also being supported to ensure that
all vaccines are as safe and effective as possible.
Was SARS a Pandemic?
No, SARS is not an influenza virus. It is a coronavirus. However, the outbreak of SARS
did teach us some valuable lessons and showed us the areas where we could improve our public
health system and our control processes for diagnosis, quarantine and treatment of infectious
diseases.
Need more information?
Check out the web site at www.hc-sc.gc.ca
For SARS information see www.sars.gc.ca
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