The Environment Canada Policy Research Seminar Series

Dr. C.S. (Buzz) Holling May 3, 2002

On September 30, 2002, the Environment Canada Policy Research Seminar Series featured C.S. (Buzz) Holling of the University of Florida’s Department of Zoology for a presentation entitled "Surprise is Here : Recent Advances in Linking Environmental, Economic and Social Systems". The following is a précis of Dr. Holling’s presentation.

Dr. Holling is known for innovative ideas that challenge existing theories of system growth, change, evolution and resilience. His presentation touched upon the findings of his recently completed 6-year multidisciplinary research project on the Florida Everglades involving over 300 researchers from around the world and producing over 150 published articles. The project also generated books in the disciplines of ecology, mathematics, social issues, and an integrative volume entitled "Panarchy".

Having conducted extensive theoretical and empirical research on system dynamics, Dr. Holling concludes that every system, both in nature and within human societies, exhibits a classic pathology. In other words, systems are characterized by strong commonalities in their evolutionary cycles.

Human and natural systems are complex, continually adapting through cycles of change. Change can be fast or slow — it can move with the velocity of invasive species rapidly overtaking an ecosystem, or at the unhurried pace of mountains rising and falling. Scales can range from millimetres to kilometres. However, no matter how simple or complex systems are, they share common cycles of change, which he labels "panarchies" – a word which combines "Pan", the God of Mischief in classical Greek mythology, and the term "hierarchy".

The panarchy cycle is characterized by two distinct phases of change.

Figure 1.

The first phase is marked by expansion and prosperity with growth and accumulation of capital and wealth (broadly defined to apply to different types of systems) by the dominant species as it establishes control over its environment. Though changes may be slow, the effects can become substantial as they gradually accumulate.

The second phase is the "back-loop" characterized by creative destruction and reorganization, potentially suddenly. It is a period of low predictability with the constant potential for surprises. During the back-loop of the cycle, a sudden event, like a forest fire, can unexpectedly "flip" an ecosystem or economy into a qualitatively different state by triggering the release of biomass, capital and wealth. Dr. Holling used the example of a lake flipping from a state of clear water with fish as the dominant form of aquatic life, to turbid water dominated by plankton. The transformation into another state may not only be biologically and economically impoverishing, but also effectively irreversible.

Figure 2.

Dr. Holling also emphasizes that systems are interdependent. Change at one level can cascade up or down to either support or disturb linked systems either above or below.

For instance, the collapse of one component of an ecological system could spread to linked economic and social systems. Correspondingly, models of economic growth should be linked to ecological and social systems. Failure to link systems, in mathematical modeling or otherwise, will lower the accuracy of predictions and could lead to unwise management decisions.

To illustrate the point, Dr. Holling pointed to the impact the collapse of the Berlin Wall in 1989 had on governing regimes. Since many Eastern Bloc social, economic and political systems were in back-loops at the time, this single sudden event triggered a wave of regime collapses.

In analyzing a multitude of problems arising within systems, and management approaches to finding solutions, he noticed a common pattern. Dr. Holling contends that most past and present policy management approaches have and continue to focus on single systems and their processes in isolation; they strive to achieve quantifiable targets for outcomes in one system, without taking into account the potential impacts on linked systems.

Such simplified solutions usually work in the short run, but more often than not, this transient success leads to larger failure. For instance, to address the budworm breakout in Canadian spruce forests, a technological solution (pesticides) was implemented. As a result, the pulp and paper industry became more dependent and the ecological system became more vulnerable due to a loss of resilience (less diversity in species, genes, and spatial heterogeneity).

Dr. Holling contends this example typifies traditional oversimplified means of defining problems. First, the management agencies became more myopic in their treatment of systems. Second, economies became more dependent on the ecological systems. Third, ecological system became more vulnerable.

How can policymakers make constructive use of knowledge of the panarchy cycle? Dr. Holling emphasizes that we need adaptive management. His central message is that the policy community needs to move beyond one-dimensional theories of change and adopt a more holistic approach. Systems in the back-loop need not be destined for catastrophic reorganization. The resilience of systems can be enhanced by the actions and ingenuity of individuals.

First, management can be enhanced by identifying the thresholds for system flips. But even still, efforts to freeze the system in one state can cause such an extremity of transformation that recovery will be very slow (memory is destroyed). Second, We can’t optimize for both growth and resilience; they are opposites, though both are necessary in a system. Second, by stimulating innovation, protecting the experiences needed for change, and by building adaptive capacity, we can foster flexible management to cope with threats of sudden system collapse and build system resilience.

With respect to innovation, Dr. Holling points out that our efforts to innovate can be easily smothered if not strategically implemented with a holistic view of system interactions. Innovation usually starts at lower levels, but will only spread if upper levels are vulnerable. As a corollary to this, it is possible to experiment with innovations in a safe-fail environment, provided we take advantage of opportunities when linked systems are not vulnerable.

Moving from the theory of resilience to our current world system, Dr. Holling leaves participants with the discomforting message that, at present, globally, we find ourselves in the back-loop of the panarchy cycle. As evidence of how predictability is low and we are prone to unexpected surprises in our present day global system, he points to global climate change, instabilities arising from the information revolution, the emergence of new diseases, and unforeseen terrorist incidents.

To summarize, in rising to the present challenges of managing complex economic, ecological and social systems, Dr. Holling advises that individual systems behave in a manner which is fundamentally different than can be understood from the causal relationships within any one system. Individual system behaviour cannot be explained solely by causal relationships within that system. His presentation offers various principles of system dynamics that advance our understanding of ecological, human and natural systems alike.