| Background |
In the past, force planning issues tended to be dealt with on a case by case
basis with supporting analysis derived from a variety of methods,
including purpose built scenarios. As a consequence, it was sometimes
difficult to relate force planning decisions to the policy on which they were
based.
Thus, establish a comprehensive and consistent approach to force planning,
departmental scenarios have been introduced as a key force development tool.
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| Definition |
Scenarios are an outline of a planned series of events (real or imagined)
that include specifications as to the various scenes and situations, the cast
of characters and detailed direction for the stage setting and the
development of the events.
Scenarios describe the set of circumstances in which defence forces are
expected to be used. They help frame the expectations for key results and
focus capability against the most probable set of eventualities.
"Scenario planning is a very clearly defined technique: It is a disciplined
planning methodology that generates a wider view of the external
environment."(1)
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| Aim |
To provide a set of scenarios which offer a recognized framework
within which long-term departmental force planning and analyses, can be conducted.
|
| Caveat |
The scenarios are designed to provide situations illustrative of those in
which the Canadian Forces (CF) might be involved. They are a tool for strategic planning purposes only; as such,
they do not reflect a Canadian position on the likelihood of any or all of
these situations arising, or on the future employment of the CF.
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| Development Factors |
The most difficult challenges in developing a useful set of scenarios were:
- establishing the boundaries in which they are be set;
- defining the issues around which the major plays are written; and
- identifying the assumptions inherent in each scenario.
The goal was not to eliminate uncertainty from planning, but to establish
manageable boundaries around that uncertainty in order to bring emerging
planning issues into focus. To account for the inevitability of future
geopolitical and technological change, the scenario was made flexible
enough to allow for subsequent adaptation or modification as
circumstances warrant. The set also caters to the requirement for
periodic updates to ensure continuing currency with Government,
Departmental and CF policy.
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| Development Guidelines |
These guidelines governed the development of the scenario framework:
- the scenarios are based upon current Defence Policy;
- the scenarios are set at the strategic level;
- the scenario set has been centrally approved;
- the scenarios are credible, realistic, and representative of the
types of generic missions the CF could be called upon to perform;
- the number of scenarios developed is to be kept to a minimum;
- the scenario set is designed to build upon already existing material;
- the scenarios apply to the CF as a whole and are not single service specific;
- the framework spans the entire spectrum of conflict so that they can
assist the Department and CF in identifying those capabilities
the CF may require in the future;
- the scenarios are designed to be illustrative in nature; and
- the scenarios are designed to allow users to add to or adapt
details to develop "vignettes" at the operational and tactical levels.
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| Scenario Spectrum |
This figure locates the individual components of the scenario envelope on
the spectrum of conflict.
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|
| The Framework |
Force planning scenarios have been developed for use as a planning and
management tool. They are intended to assist in providing coherence and
discipline to DND/CF long-term planning activities and to generate a
wide view of the external environment confronting DND and the CF.
This disciplined methodology allows long-term planners to develop
plausible alternatives against which current and future plans can be
assessed.
Scenarios benefit DND and the CF by encouraging senior planning
staffs to think together in systematic and more disciplined ways.
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| The Way Ahead |
Capability-based, scenario-supported analyses will facilitate the
identification of environmental and joint capability requirements,
promote trade-offs in efficiencies and assist planners in developing
long-term force planning goals at the strategic and operational levels.
When compiled and analysed, the statements of environmental and
joint capabilities derived from the scenarios will provide ECS and
GPs with a detailed inventory of the corporate capability the CF
is called upon to establish and maintain to fulfil its mandate.
The tool as developed, with others, will assist senior leaders in
establishing an order of precedence among the ensuing deficiencies and
the associated long-term equipment acquisition and force development
processes.
The scenario framework will provide senior management and their
representatives with a sound basis upon which to base resource and force
structure analyses.
By providing the DND/CF long-term planning activities with a common
set of assumptions and circumstances, the framework provides a clear link
to government direction, as provided in the 1994 White Paper;assists
senior management in their decision making; and promotes a sound basis
from which long-term planning activities can be projected.
"Scenarios are tools for improving the decision-making process against a
background of possible future environments"(2)
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| Concurrence |
The issue of concurrence of scenarios is fundamental to the identification
and extent of the level and extent of the capabilities required to fulfil the
Defence policy mandate. Work is ongoing in this area.
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| Performance |
A well thought out set of scenarios can also have applicability in the field of performance measurement. There is potential for scenarios to
provide a suitable basis upon which to establish and measure defence
outcomes. Work is ongoing in this field.
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| Summary |
"[Scenarios] don't provide the sole and ultimate answer to planners' and
decision makers' needs. However, scenarios can lead to the creation of a
new flexible and effective planning culture".(3)
the scenario framework has been developed as an aid to executive decision
making, the methodology facilitating the delivery of the anticipated
Defence outputs in a coherent, efficient and transparent manner. Scenarios
promote unified vision of the future and a single framework for carrying
out comprehensive force planning.
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1. Daniel G. Simpson, "Key Lessons for Adopting Scenario Planning in Diversified
Companies."
Planning Review 20, no.3 (1992): 10-17, 47-48.
2. Paul J.H. Schoemaker and Cornelius A.J.M. van der Heijden, "Case Study Integrating
Scenarios into Strategic Planning at Royal Dutch/Shell."
Planning Review 20, no. 3 (1992): 41-46
3. Ian Wilson, "Teaching Decisions Makers to Learn from
Scenarios: a Blueprint for Implementation.",n.p, n.d.
