Provincial-Level Projection of
the Current Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak

Year 1 & 2 Results
Year 3 (current) Update

For the past 3 years researchers have been conducting a project to project the future extent of the mountain pine beetle outbreak that is currently affecting the interior forests of British Columbia. They have also been projecting the forest management response to the outbreak.

Year 1 & 2 Results

The first two years of the project were jointly supported by the Mountain Pine Beetle Initiative of the Canadian Forest Service and the British Columbia Forest Service.  Detailed results of the first two years of the project are presented:

• Results of Year 1 focussing on the efficacy of beetle management strategies

• Results of Year 2 focussing on uncertainties about non-recovered losses

• Popular Graphic Products produced during year 2 of the project

   
 Cumulative Mortality      Annual Damage
        Slide Show                      Slide Show                   Photos of Damage
       Animated GIF                 Animated GIF

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Year 3 Update

In the past year (2005/2006) both the beetle projection and forest management response portions of the model have been improved and projections updated based on the results of the 2005 Provincial Aerial Overview of Forest Health. This work represents "updates" to the efforts of the second year.

Reports

• Methods updates: describing revisions and enhancements to the model resulting in BCMPB.v3

• Infestation Projection: updated to include 2005 data

• Non-Recovered Losses Projection: updated to include revised shelf-life assumptions and management model enhancements

Spreadsheets

• Projection of the infestation alone (no forest harvesting)  125 KB

Maps

The following series of maps represents the state of the outbreak as seen in 2005 and as projected for 3 different years in the future.  The are 2.5 megabyte PDF files.  [If the PDF files do not load properly within your browser, right-click on a link, save to your computer, then load manually with Adobe Reader.]

• Observed percentage of  pine volume killed in 2005

• Projection of percentage of  pine volume killed by 2006

• Projection of percentage of  pine volume killed by 2009

• Projection of percentage of  pine volume killed by 2012

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