From January 24 to March 31, 2006, Canadians were invited to share their views on global demographics and geopolitics. Participants were provided with numerous on-line resources to foster clear and informed discussion. There were a total of thirty-nine postings to the eDiscussion.

Four questions were posed to participants by policy makers at Foreign Affairs to guide and frame the eDiscussion. The main points raised in relation to the questions are summarized below:

Shift in balance of power

Participants were asked for their views on how population change affects geopolitics and what the implications of this are for Canada. Some argued that changing demographics would shift the global balance of power away from the West and toward populous regions in the Asia-Pacific. Participants recommended that Canada increase immigration from the region as part of a strategy of strengthening relations with emerging powers. However, one participant countered that viewing the geopolitical landscape in terms of a shifting balance of power was misguided and should not inform Canadian foreign policy. The influence of globalization, he felt, has undermined the relevance of traditional concepts such as ‘balance of power’.

Participants focused on domestic policy responses to global demographic change. Their comments can be divided into three themes:

The first concerned the need to combat population decline in Canada. Most participants advocated using immigration to maintain a stable population level by countering the effect of low fertility rates. Some also called for the Government of Canada to support fertility incentive programmes through social support services and financial assistance to prospective or growing families.

Second, most participants favoured pegging immigration quotas to the employment rate. They argued the number of immigrants admitted each year should be proportionate to available jobs in the overall economy. The question of who should be accepted was the topic of a lively debate. Participants disagreed on whether Canada should pursue an immigration selection process that differentiates individuals based on their specific skills. Some felt that prioritizing skilled youth could benefit Canada economically, while others argued that such policies are unethical because they support the brain drain phenomenon currently challenging the economic development of many countries in the Global South.

Third, participants supported the recognition of foreign education and credentials for underemployed immigrants. They lamented that many immigrants are forced to re-earn their academic qualifications under Canadian guidelines to secure meaningful employment. Participants also felt that recognizing foreign qualifications could help fill the void left by retiring baby boomers in Canada’s social, health, and other sectors. The suggestion was that curbing the demographic erosion of our labour force is critical to maintaining and strengthening Canada’s relative power and influence in the world.

Resource shortages

Participants felt that increased demand for energy and resources would lead to conflict between states and become a pressing issue in Canadian foreign policy. They highlighted the importance of curbing Canadian reliance on imported items such as cement, and stressed the need to curb domestic oil consumption, in order to reduce future dependency on foreign markets.

Furthermore, participants expressed concern over conflicts arising from resource scarcity, caused by burgeoning populations in the Global South. Many worried that fierce competition for basic resources would fuel migration, sharply increasing the flow of immigrants to Canada. Participants therefore supported assigning greater priority to international environmental issues to mitigate the impact of resource scarcity on global migration. They also recommended that Canada draw on its abundant natural resources to aid depleted countries with the provision of survival resources like water.

Implications for Canada-US relations

Several participants commented on the implications of changing demographics in the United States for Canada-US relations. One participant worried that massive population increases in the sun-belt region of the US would lead to unsustainable resource consumption patterns there. This would negatively affect the US economy and create greater demand from the US for resources such as water, of which Canada could be a key supplier.

Moreover, this participant suggested that population growth of economically disadvantaged minority communities could augment US voter support for the Democrats, given traditional voting patterns of these groups. This, in turn, would affect US domestic and international policy in ways to which Canada would be forced to adapt.

Hence, the proposed implication of resource scarcity in the sun-belt and an increasingly diverse US population is that Canada’s relative influence over the US will likely grow. To explain this, participants pointed to Canada’s abundant natural resources and reputation as a model “enterprising and inclusive” society.

Participants noted that increased demand for immigration from other parts of the world to the US could prompt US isolationalism, expressed through more stringent immigration controls. This would result in greater disparity between Canadian and US immigration policies, as similar restrictions on immigration in Canada would not be feasible in light of our low birth rates.

Impact on Canada’s foreign policy

Discussion on the impact of demographic change on Canadian foreign policy varied. Participants emphasized the importance of immigration in encouraging multiculturalism and upholding Canada’s positive, worldwide reputation as a welcoming country. One participant suggested Canadian foreign policy would be affected by population bulges in fragile states, as well as remittance flows from Diaspora groups in Canada to communities in these states. They also identified population growth, environmental scarcity and widespread poverty in the Asia-Pacific region as a security challenge that Canadian foreign policy would have to confront. According to participants, the confluence of these factors would lead to migration from the Asia-Pacific region to Canada. This would have a positive effect by assisting Canada in compensating for low fertility rates.

Official response by Foreign Affairs Canada

This summary of the views received during the eDiscussion on demographics and geopolitics is currently being reviewed by policy planners within Foreign Affairs Canada. Their response will be posted on the Canadian International Policy site in August 2006.