Security Sector Reform

My name is Mark Sedra and I am the Cadieux-Léger Research Fellow at Foreign Affairs Canada. This is a nine-month research fellowship that I began in September 2004. I have been working on Afghanistan for about three years now, in various capacities. I was a research associate at the Bonn International Center for Conversion for two of those years where I led a project that monitored the Afghan security situation and particularly the security sector reform process.

The security sector reform process in Afghanistan has five pillars. Each of which is overseen by a lead donor nation. The first pillar is military, or defence sector reform, which is lead by the United States. The second pillar is police reform, led by the government of Germany. The third pillar is the disarmament, demobilization and reintegration of ex-combatants, led by the government of Japan. Judicial reform is the fourth pillar and this is led by the government of Italy. And finally, the counter-narcotics pillar, and this is led by the United Kingdom.

 Over the last few years, I have monitored all developments in these five pillars. My project, at the moment in the country, is to do a state of affairs of the process. I am here to take a look at what is the status of reforms in relation to each of these sectors. 

Ethnicity

Afghanistan is a very diverse country - ethnically and linguistically. There are four principal ethnic groups, although there are many other smaller ones.  The principal groups are the Pashtuns which account for about 39-45% of the population, depending on the figures you use. The Tajiks which can account for about 20-26% of the population; the Hazara which account for about 10-13% of the population and the Uzbeks which may account for 8-10% of the population. And then there are a number of smaller ethnic groups which make up the rest. The population of Afghanistan is roughly between 25 and 30 million.

 
All of these figures are very hard to nail down as there hasn't been a census in the country for decades. It is also a very politically sensitive question because the percentage of the population would help to determine what share of government postings that each ethnic group would be able to claim.

 
The interesting thing about ethnicity is that there is a very strong national identity. Most Afghans strongly identify as an Afghan and not just with their ethnic group. However, most groups still mobilize along ethnic lines, both politically and in the past, militarily. So it is a vital factor that you can't discount. It is important to note that there have been no cessationist movements in Afghanistan. I think this is an important thing to emphasis because often, in the West, we tend to characterize the Afghan conflict as an ethnic conflict and in many cases this just shows part of the story.

Elections 

There were presidential elections held in Afghanistan in October 2004. They were remarkably successful. There were a lot of "doom and gloom" predictions that there would be a large scale violence that would mar the polls. This largely didn't transpire. The elections proceeded peacefully and President Karzai was elected with a robust majority. He was the only candidate that was able to secure votes from across the ethnic spectrum in the country, which was very important.

 
I think that the elections gave a really important boost to the reconstruction and political process in this country. It also gave renewed confidence to the government and the international community that Afghanistan is on the right track.

 
Parliamentary elections will be held in Afghanistan in 2005. These are going to be much more difficult than the presidential elections, both logistically and in terms of security. But this is an incredibly important step on Afghanistan's path toward democracy.