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Posted by Jesse Brown on November 08 at 07:54 AM
Music downloads increase CD sales: the Industry Canada study, Michael Geist's blog item.
America's tech-election (part 1- the Democrats):
The Politics of Pile On (Clinton's clip)
The Politics of Parsing (Edward's response clip)
Other YouTube election clips mentioned: Vote Different, Obama Girl
Micah Sifry's sites- PersonalDemocracyForum and TechPresident
James Kotecki (AKA Emergency Cheese) interviews Mike Gravel in his dorm room and hits the mid-time on Politico.com
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Comments
The study that Michael Geist referred to is terribly flawed. A complete dismantling of the studies analysis and conclusion can be found at http://www.utdallas.edu/~liebowit/intprop/main.htm#canadian
the author, Stan Leibowitz is a noted academic. perhaps Mister Geist should have done more research before research before championing such a poor piece of work.
Posted by: Don Berkowitz | November 13, 2007 10:58 AM
You said that there was no "obama girl" video for Clinton. I guess you haven't seen the "hot for Hil video". . .
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-LWF9LF_NQM
Posted by: calfaile | November 13, 2007 12:09 PM
I agree with the comment made by Don Berkowitz.
The debate on P2P-CD sales is difficult to track. As the study's authors write themselves, there are certainly two factors at play: sampling (P2P -> +CD) and substitution (P2P -> -CD).
I went back to the study. On page 24 the authors write that "[R]egressions based on cross-sectional data cannot prove causality; instead they only show an association between variables." Later they acknowledge that simultaneous equations systems ("capable" of dealing with circular causality) would have required "instrumental variables" (indicators that are unambigously related to only one of the two inter-related variables) that were not available. Too bad.
But then, how can the authors conclude that 12 P2P downloads per year increase CD purchases by 0.44? (!!) (rather than say an increase of .44 CD per year increase the likelihood of P2P downloads by 12).
I suppose that everybody will agree that:
1) the more I like music, the more I am likely to sample
2) the more I like music, the more I am likely to acquire music
So there is no surprise if we find a positive correlation between P2P and purchases. (the Leibowitz file has a useful numerical example)
The question is whether the positive sampling effect on CD sales is larger than the negative substitution effect. Possible, but frankly, I doubt it. And the aforementioned study doesn't provide a satisfactory answer.
Posted by: Stephane Gauvin | November 13, 2007 10:51 PM
I agree totally.
Posted by: rob | November 16, 2007 04:13 PM
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