Newsroom
2003
Bright future predicted for malting barley
March 26, 2003
Winnipeg – Canada’s malting barley exports are projected to increase by 60 per cent to just over two million tonnes annually by 2011-12, according to the Canadian Wheat Board’s (CWB) long-term grain trade forecast released today.
“The growth in malting barley demand is mainly driven by an anticipated increase in beer consumption in China,” said CWB’s Vice-President of Commodity Analysis and Risk Management, Brian White. “China has a very large young population and personal disposable income is growing. As a result, China’s total malting barley imports are projected to climb from an average of 1.9 million tonnes in the base period to 3.4 million tonnes in 2011.”
In the grain trade forecast, White and his team of crop and market analysts summarize their projections for world grain production and trade in the years 2006-07 and 2011-12. The base period used for comparison is the five-year average from crop years 1997-98 to 2001-02. Their predictions cover grain production and import and export projections for total wheat, durum wheat, feed and malting barley and corn in up to 55 different markets.
Global wheat production is forecast to increase by 14 per cent to 676 million tonnes by 2011. Global wheat trade is also forecast to rise by about 15 per cent over this period, but Canada’s wheat exports are projected to remain stable at 17.2 million tonnes. Strong global competition, especially from the “minor” exporting countries such as Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan will keep pressure on prices, limiting Canadian production and exports.
The CWB analysts predict that by 2011, world trade in durum will increase by 13 per cent to 7.6 million tonnes. However, as with wheat, the minor exporters are likely to capture some of the additional trade as their market share is projected to increase from 20 per cent in 2001-02 to 31 per cent by 2011. Canada is expected to retain its 50 per cent market share during this period with steady exports of approximately 3.7 million tonnes.
Canada’s feed barley exports are projected to stay below 500 000 tonnes with the minor exporters increasing their market share for world feed barley to 52 per cent from 28 per cent in the base period. World trade in corn is predicted to climb by 23 per cent mainly due to increased demand from Mexico.
The CWB’s long-term grain trade forecast is available on the CWB’s Web site at www.cwb.ca
Controlled by western Canadian farmers, the CWB is the largest wheat and barley marketer in the world. As one of Canada’s biggest exporters, the Winnipeg-based organization sells grain to more than 70 countries and returns all sales revenue, less marketing costs, to Prairie farmers.
For more information, please contact:
Rhéal Cenerini
Communications consultant
Winnipeg, MB
tel: (204) 983-4497