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Visions of Growth: Policy Implications for the 2004/2005 Crop Year
A target of "doubling the combined value of exports and domestic processing of western grain" over a 10-year period has been established by an advisory group of senior executives from the grains industry (called the Vision Committee). This goal of achieving such ambitious growth in western grains and oilseeds production is intended to expand the vision of the corporate strategies and policies of the industry. AAFC, in conjunction with the Western Grains Strategic Planning Group, conducted this analysis with the objective of quantifying the potential for the western agricultural sector to meet this growth target.
The analysis defines and quantifies the target in terms of the value of exports and domestic processing of western grains and oilseeds. It is estimated that this value was $12 billion in 1994. Doubling the sector's output by 2004/5 yields a total Grain Visions Target of $24 billion.
The values of grains and oilseeds production in 2004/05 are estimated based on the AAFC Medium Term Baseline. These estimates indicate that the total value of grains and oilseeds exports and domestic processing would be $16.4 billion by 2004/05 if current production patterns and policies were to continue. From this baseline, scenarios are modelled to examine simultaneously the impacts of increased livestock production and meeting the 1994 Canadian Wheat Board export forecasts for wheat and barley. By changing crop yields and relative price levels, insights as to the requirements for meeting the target are determined.
The first part of this report examines the scenarios and the results in terms of how closely they meet the established target. The main conclusion is that a large gap remains between what the industry would like to achieve and what might be obtained in 2004/05. Even with optimistic increases in yields that allow higher bulk exports, and a significant increase in red meat production, the industry still faces an unresolved challenge of some $6-7 billion. Relative to the 2004 baseline figure of $16.4 billion, even aggressive growth scenarios contribute only an additional $1 billion to the value of output. These results are then put into broader terms with respect to the resource constraints facing current agricultural production.
The analysis provides a backdrop on which to discuss the future of all aspects of the Prairie grain and livestock industries. The second part of the report is thus designed to stimulate discussion regarding the possible policy concerns or pressures that might emanate from these results. A number of issues are raised under the broad headings of regulation, research and development, marketing systems, and other related policy issues.
One of the impacts of setting such an optimistic target is that it forces the discussion away from the status quo. It also encourages the search for innovations and new strategies. Clearly, stakeholders (industry, government and producer groups) will assess the findings from their own perspective.
For more information on this publication, please e-mail: Econ_Research@agr.gc.ca.
Table of Contents
Visions of Growth: Policy Implications for the 2004/2005 Crop Year (PDF version, 298 KB) - Help on PDF
Publication: 1984/E - ISBN: 0-662-27227-7 - Catalogue: A22-180/1998E - Project: 98076r