Calling the shots By Don Newman Former Ontario premier David Peterson felt it in 1990 when he called an early election, looking for an easy win, and ended up losing power and leaving public life. Mining CEO Scott Hand came under its influence two years ago, when he tried to merge INCO with rival Falconbridge and ended up seeing both companies lost to a Brazilian conglomerate. And Brian Mulroney felt its sting when he recruited his old friend Lucien Bouchard, an arch Quebec nationalist, to help him win the 1988 election, only to see Bouchard leave in a huff and set up a separatist political party to compete for Quebec seats two years later. What they all suffered from was the law of unintended consequences. And it may be worth asking at this point: Is Stephen Harper about to become another victim of its whims? Consider the legislation the Conservatives enacted in the spring that set a fixed date (Oct. 12, 2009) for the next federal election. Fixed election dates were a key part of the Conservatives campaign platform, but they definitely constrain the prime minister's ability to go to the Governor General and request an election. Fixed election dates mean a prime minister no longer has the power to ask for an election whenever he thinks the timing is best for him and his party. Even in a minority government and especially when the main opponent is disorganized, underfunded and bickering among themselves, as the Liberals are today. Now would seem like a good time for Harper and the Conservatives to go to the polls. But his hands are tied by the fixed election date legislation he passed into law. Passing the power That's why Harper says he wants to govern, while at the same time continuing to create opportunities for his government to lose votes of confidence in the House of Commons. Defeats that would trigger an election. First there was the throne speech with its provocative language and policy taunts. Then came the mini-budget this week. The Liberals allowed both to pass even though past experience suggests the Liberals would have voted against both. After all, isn't that what official oppositions are meant to do at this point, closing on two years into the life of a minority government? Usually minority governments survive by making deals with the smallest party in Parliament. Or the smallest party with enough votes to keep it in power. But for their own strategic reasons, neither the NDP nor the Bloc Québécois feel they can continue to support the Conservatives at this juncture. So despite their official opposition designation, the Liberals have been forced, for their own survival, to keep the Conservatives in power. Not forever, says Liberal leader Stéphane Dion. When his party is better organized and its election platform ready, he will vote against the government on a confidence measure and send Canadians to the polls. In other words, Dion will be the one to effectively set the election date. Before fixed election dates, that was the prerogative of the prime minister. Ah, the law of unintended consequences.

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