The National Tourism Indicators (NTI) portray the evolution of tourism in Canada on a quarterly basis. These bottom-line figures officially represent the most current results on the significance of tourism in the Canadian economy and form the basis to measure its progress. They constitute a set of statistics that provide historical and current quarterly analysis of tourism, covering tourism commodity supply and demand, employment and prices.
Statistics Canada released on March 30, 2003 the National Tourism Indicators (NTI) Quarterly Estimates Fourth Quarter 2003 and full year in review.
Summary of 2003 preliminary results expressed in current prices (compared to the preceding year):
- Total tourism expenditures reached $50.9 billion, a decrease of 1.8% over 2002. Weak tourism activity was mainly caused by a few adverse events responsible for this decline, such as: the war in Iraq, SARS outbreak.
- Results were mixed across all tourism commodities, with spending on the accommodation down 7.6%, passenger air transportation down 6.1%, while vehicle fuel and recreation and entertainment up 5.8% and respectively 2.9%.
- Spending by Canadians travelling in Canada reached $35.1 billion, up 3.3% from 2002, despite the hurdles of the overall tourism sector.
- Foreign spending had a sharp decline of 11.5% from the previous year, reaching $15.8 billion.
- Total tourism employment reached 572,800 full and part-time jobs, down 1.2% from the previous year.
- In real dollar terms, after adjusting for inflation and expressed in 1997 constant dollars, total tourism spending in 2003 amounted to $46.0 billion, a 2.7% decline.
Summary of the fourth quarter results for data unadjusted for seasonality and expressed in current prices (compared to the preceding year):
- Total tourism expenditures reached $10.8 billion, a decrease of 1.4% over the same quarter of 2002. Major decreases in spending were registered in passenger air transport (down 6.0%) and accommodation (down 2.8%); however, other industries registered substantial increases, such as: vehicle repairs and parts (up 5.9%), and recreation and entertainment (up 4.6%).
- Spending by Canadians travelling in Canada reached $7.7 billion, up only 0.2%.
- Foreign spending reached $3.2 billion, down 5.0%.
- Total tourism employment reached 568,500 full and part-time jobs, down 1.8% from the same quarter of 2002.
Summary of the fourth quarter 2003 results adjusted for seasonality and inflation and expressed in 1997 constant dollars (compared to the preceding quarter):
- Total real tourism spending reached $11.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2003. This represents a 3.2% increase over the third quarter of 2003. Increases in spending were registered in passenger air transportation (up 5.5%), accommodation (up 5.0%), and passenger rail transportation (up 4.3%).
- Real spending by Canadian residents in Canada amounted to $8.1 billion (up 1.1% over the previous quarter), which was mainly due to an increase in spending on air transportation.
- Foreign spending in the fourth quarter 2003 registered a sharp increase by 8.2% over the previous quarter, reaching $3.6 billion.
- Total tourism employment reached 576,600 full and part-time jobs, an increase of 1.4% from the previous quarter. This increase was driven by the growth in air transportation (up 2.9%) and accommodation (up 2.1%).
The National Tourism Indicators (NTI) fourth quarter 2003 also includes the Study of Data Revisions to the NTI Estimates for 1997-2001. The study examines the quality of the NTI by analyzing their revisions.
At present, the NTI quarterly estimates are revised with releases for subsequent quarters for the same calendar year, as is the case in the Canadian System of National Accounts (CSNA). As a result, improvements to CSNA data throughout the year (such as incorporation of late reports) get carried through the NTI. The CSNA, however, also undergoes an annual revision, when all quarterly estimates back four calendar years get revised. The NTI do not go through annual revisions, therefore, information that becomes available more than three months after the reference year cannot be regularly incorporated. As a result, over time, the NTI diverge from their underlining data sources (including the CSNA and the International and Canadian Travel Surveys).
The study's main findings are the following:
- Generally, revisions to the NTI were relatively small (1.0% or less of the total). This was the case of total tourism demand, domestic demand and exports as well as supply of tourism commodities.
- Revisions to total tourism demand over 1997 to 2001 tended to be upward. In other words, the initial estimates tended to understate total tourism demand.
- Domestic demand and exports also tended to be revised upward. This was the case for spending on most tourism commodities, except for accommodation, which was revised downward.
- The quarterly estimates of the supply of tourism commodities tended to be revised down. They also showed smaller revisions on average than those for tourism demand.
- Growth rates of total tourism demand were revised upward 0.4 percentage points on average over 1997 to 2001.
- The NTI tended initially to understate the downturns and upswings in the tourism spending.
- Estimates of jobs generated by tourism on average were revised up a slight 0.03%. However, tourism employment growth was revised down 0.06% on average.
For more information on the NTI 4Q 2003 and full year in review, contact Denisa Georgescu (613) 946-2136.
