The Theme
This map shows the regional trends of greenhouse
gases (GHG) emissions for the period 1990 to 2020. The values
of emissions for 1990 and 1998 are based on historical data, while
those for 2010 and 2020 represent the most current greenhouse gas
projection by Natural Resources Canada as of the date of publishing
for this map (August 2001). This map also shows a projection of regional carbon intensity in
terms of tonnes of carbon dioxide per million dollars of Real Domestic
Product (RDP). Higher carbon intensities (identified by a dark green
color on the map) means that the economies of these regions use
comparatively more carbon-content fuel per million dollars of RDP
to produce goods and services.
All the GHG statistics
are represented on a provincial basis, except for British Columbia
and the Territories, for which only regional aggregate statistics
are available (British Columbia makes up about 95% of the population
in the British Columbia and Territories region). The provincial
statistics for each of the Atlantic provinces can be viewed by zooming
in on this region.
Interpretation
This map shows long-term GHG
emissions growth on a provincial and territorial basis. The pattern
of emissions growth varies across provinces, largely reflecting
the distribution of energy sources available, the existence of energy
production, and the nature of manufacturing activities and projected
population growth. The major highlights of emissions growth in the
provinces and territories are:
- In relative terms, the provinces of British Columbia, Alberta
and Saskatchewan are expected to experience the largest increases
between 1990 and 2010. Emissions for British Columbia are expected
to increase by 38%, while those for Alberta and Saskatchewan each
may increase by 40%. By contrast, emissions in Quebec are expected
to increase by only 11%.
- In absolute terms, Alberta and Ontario are expected to experience
the largest increases in emissions. Between 1990 and 2010, emissions
in Alberta, which is the principal oil and natural gas producing
province, are expected to increase by 67 Mt (where Mt means millions of tones of carbon dioxide equivalent), while emissions in Ontario
- Canada's industrial heartland and most populated province -
are expected to increase by 31 Mt.
- Between 1990 and 2010, emissions in the Atlantic region are
expected to increase by 23%. Out of the Atlantic provinces, Newfoundland
and Labrador will experience the largest percentage increase,
due to increased economic activities resulting from offshore oil
production projects such as Hibernia and Terra Nova.
Data Source
The projections of provincial GHG
emissions were produced by the Analysis and Modelling Division of
Energy Sector, Natural Resources Canada. The projection methodology
starts by defining the major framework assumptions upon which the
results are constructed. These assumptions concern: energy prices,
the United States' economy and energy market, Canadian macroeconomic
performance, Canadian demographics, and Canada's current policy
stance. The assumptions to construct this framework were developed
by or through consultation with international experts and private
consultants.
A modelling structure that combines econometric, end-use, and process
techniques is then used to project the energy demand, supply and
associated emissions. The preliminary results were shared with stakeholders
for their input and their advice was then incorporated into the
final version of the projections.
The digital data for this map can be downloaded
here.
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