The Theme
This map shows, for the populated area of each census division,
the projected change in the market share of large cars in total
light-duty vehicle sales, from the model year 1990 to 2010 (the
base year and the target year of the Kyoto
Protocol), based on the business-as-usual scenario. The business-as-usual
case assumes that there are no major policy changes in the 1990
to 2010 period, which would affect vehicle preferences. This change
was derived based on the 1990 market share and the 2010 market share
projection. The 2010 market share projection is provided as an alternative
layer in this map.
Light-duty vehicles include all cars and light trucks. The light-duty
vehicle size classes, defined by the US Environmental Protection
Agency, were adopted for the vehicle classification. This classification
has 15 classes: six classes for automobiles, six classes for light
trucks, and three classes for station wagons. Among these 15 classes,
seven prominent classes account for the large majority of new light-duty
vehicle sales in each census division. The prominent classes are subcompact cars, compact cars, midsize cars, large cars, small vans,
small utility vehicles and large pickups. The remaining classes
include two seater cars, minicompacts, small pickups, large vans,
large utility vehicles, and three size classes of wagons.
Note that there are no data available for the Territories.
Relation to Climate Change
Because vehicles consume a substantial part of energy in Canada,
average vehicle fuel efficiency is an important indicator for greenhouse
gas emission and climate change policy making. The lower the fuel
efficiency, the higher the emission per vehicle, and, consequently,
the greater the contribution to greenhouse gases. Average new light
duty vehicle fuel efficiency, which measures miles travelled per
gallon, is defined by averaging the tested fuel efficiency
rating for each vehicle's class, weighted by that class' market
share in each census division. Vehicle market share is therefore
one of the two determinants to vehicle fuel efficiency. Large cars
are less fuel-efficient vehicles. A large market share of large
cars, normally, makes the overall vehicles in a particular area
less fuel-efficient.
Map Interpretation
The pattern of spatial variation, in relation to the 1990 interpretation,
remains largely unchanged in the projected market share of large
cars for 2010. However, the projected changes from 1990 to 2010 vary significantly across Canada. It appears that areas with a low large car share in 1990 would have a more significant increase in this share over this period, while areas with a high large car share in 1990 tend to have a decrease in this class share over the same period. This indicates that the spatial variation of market
share of large cars would be less significant in 2010 than in 1990.
Overall, the increase in the market share of large cars would be
insignificant. This is likely due to the increasing relative cost
of purchasing and fuelling a car of this class, as shown in Figure 3. The market share models suggest that the large car share is positively
correlated to the age of the population and level of household income,
and negatively correlated to relative cost of owning a vehicle of
this class (i.e. negative savings). The increased relative cost
appears to be overwhelming to the projected growth in the other
factors, as shown in Figures 2 and 3.
[D] Click for larger version, 2 KB Figure 1. Projected Age Group of Younger and Older Populations
[D] Click for larger version, 1 KB Figure 2. Projected Household Average Income
[D] Click for larger version, 3 KB Figure 3. Projected Savings of Purchasing and Fuelling a Vehicle of a Certain Class Relative to the Weighted Average of all Light Vehicles for the Given Year
Data Source
A case study was conducted at the GeoAccess Division of Earth Sciences
Sector, Natural Resources Canada, in collaboration with
Transportation Energy Use Division of Energy Sector, Natural Resources
Canada, in order to showcase a spatial econometric approach to modelling
in support of policy making. The
projection for the market shares of light-duty vehicles by census
division was produced during this study. More details on the spatial
econometric approach are provided in Methodology
for Projection.
The verification of this projection of light-duty vehicle market
share has shown its likely validity for forecasting shifts in the
mix of light-duty vehicle sales for a given model year in a short
to medium term. This projection, however, is based on a series of
macroeconomic assumptions in Canada's Energy Outlook 1997, which
represent a best guess for the possible future if there will be
no additional policy interventions. Generally, it is suggested that
an econometric projection should serve as a trend forecast rather
than a numerical forecast.
An official projection for vehicle fuel efficiency and market shares at provincial and national levels can be found in Canada's Emissions Outlook: An Update 1999.
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