Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Improvement: Model Year 1990 to 2010

The Theme

This map shows the projected change in the average fuel efficiency of light-duty vehicles from model year 1990 to model year 2010 for the populated area of each census division. The projection was based on the business-as-usual case, which assumes that there are no major policy changes in the 1990 to 2010 period, which would affect new light-duty vehicle preferences. The years, 1990 and 2010, are the base year and the target year, respectively, for greenhouse gas reductions for the Kyoto Protocol.

The average fuel efficiency of light-duty vehicles, which measures miles traveled per gallon, was defined by averaging the tested fuel efficiency rating for each vehicle's class, weighted by that class' market share in each census division. The projected average fuel efficiency improvement was derived based on the 1990 average fuel efficiency and the projected 2010 average fuel efficiency, which are both mapped within this module.

Light-duty vehicles include all cars and light trucks. The light-duty vehicle size classes, defined by the US Environmental Protection Agency, were adopted for the vehicle classification. This classification has 15 classes: six classes for automobiles, six classes for light trucks, and three classes for station wagons. Among these 15 classes, seven prominent classes account for the large majority of new light-duty vehicle sales in each census division. The prominent classes are subcompact cars, compact cars, midsize cars, large cars, small vans, small utility vehicles and large pickups. The remaining classes include two seater cars, minicompacts, small pickups, large vans, large utility vehicles, and three size classes of wagons.

Note that there are no data available for the Territories.

Relation to Climate Change

Because vehicles consume a substantial part of energy in Canada, average vehicle fuel efficiency is an important indicator for greenhouse gas emission and climate change policy making. The lower the fuel efficiency, the higher the emission per vehicle, and, consequently, the greater the contribution to greenhouse gases. Vehicle market share is one of the two major factors determining average vehicle fuel efficiency (the other being the fuel efficiency of a vehicle class per se). The map of average fuel efficiency, therefore, suggests the mix of vehicle classes in a particular area.

Map Interpretation

Overall, from the model year 1990 to 2010, the average fuel efficiency of light-duty vehicles would be enhanced considerably, because of the potential improvement of vehicle fuel efficiency technology. However, part of the technology improvement would be negated by a shift from the use of small vehicles (such as subcompacts and compacts) to larger vehicles such as sport utility vehicles and small vans. The major causes for the shift include an ageing population (Figure 1), and an increase of household income during this period (Figure 2).

[D]
Click for larger version, 2 KB
Figure 1. Projected Age Group of Younger and Older Populations

[D]
Click for larger version, 1 KB
Figure 2. Projected Household Average Income

The improvement of average fuel efficiency also exhibits significant spatial differences. The largest improvement would be in Saskatchewan (over 8%), because of the shift from agriculture to other occupations according to the occupation projection by Human Resources Development Canada. This switch would lead to the use of more passenger vehicles rather than large pick-up trucks, thereby resulting in a significant enhancement of average fuel efficiency. It should be noted that, while having a relatively smaller range of improvement over this period, Quebec would still have the highest average vehicle fuel efficiency throughout the forecasting period.

Data Source

A case study was conducted at the GeoAccess Division of Earth Sciences Sector, Natural Resources Canada, in collaboration with Transportation Energy Use Division of Energy Sector, Natural Resources Canada, in order to showcase a spatial econometric approach to modelling in support of policy making. The projection for the average fuel efficiency of light-duty vehicles by census division, was derived during this study from two projections: a spatial econometric projection for the market shares of light-duty vehicles by census division, which was produced also during this study; and the projection of light-duty vehicle fuel efficiency by vehicle size class, which was produced by the Department of Energy of the United States. More details on the methodology for the spatial econometric projection are provided in Methodology for Projection.

The verification of this projection of light-duty vehicle market share has shown its likely validity for forecasting shifts in the mix of light-duty vehicle sales for a given model year in a short to medium term. This projection, however, is based on a series of macroeconomic assumptions in Canada's Energy Outlook 1997, which represent a best guess for the possible future if there will be no additional policy interventions. Generally, it is suggested that an econometric projection should serve as a trend forecast rather than a numerical forecast.

Also note that, while conducted within Natural Resources Canada, this projection does not represent an official Natural Resources Canada projection. An official projection for vehicle fuel efficiency and market shares at provincial and national levels can be found in Canada's Emissions Outlook: An Update 1999.

• Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Efficiency: 1990 Model Map | Read about this map
• Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Projection: 2010 Model Map | Read about this map
• Market Share of Subcompact Cars: 1990 Model Map | Read about this map
• Change in Market Share of Subcompact Cars: Model Year 1990 to 2010 Map | Read about this map
• Market Share of Compact Cars: 1990 Model Map | Read about this map
• Change in Market Share of Compact Cars: Model Year 1990 to 2010 Map | Read about this map
• Market Share of Midsize Cars: 1990 Model Map | Read about this map
• Change in Market Share of Midsize Cars: Model Year 1990 to 2010 Map | Read about this map
• Market Share of Large Cars: 1990 Model Map | Read about this map
• Change in Market Share of Large Cars: Model Year 1990 to 2010 Map | Read about this map
• Market Share of Small Vans: 1990 Model Map | Read about this map
• Change in Market Share of Small Vans: Model Year 1990 to 2010 Map | Read about this map
• Market Share of Small Utility Vehicles: 1990 Model Map | Read about this map
• Change in Market Share of Small Utility Vehicles: Model Year 1990 to 2010 Map | Read about this map

• Climate Change
• Human Activities Leading to Emissions
• References and Links