Mideast Dispatches

The hotel is one of the finest in Lebanon, with breathtaking views over the Mediterranean, well-appointed rooms, and the attentive service one would expect from a five-star establishment.

But for the Lebanese legislators now forced to stay at the Intercontinental Phoenicia Hotel in Beirut, it's a gilded prison. Complete with snipers keeping watch from the roof.

At least 40 MPs belonging to the governing majority are now fixtures at the hotel. They live there. They eat and exercise there. They do not open their blinds or windows. They cannot mix with other hotel clientele. And they rarely leave, only under the strictest supervision.

And the rest of us can only enter the hotel under the strictest scrutiny. I've rarely been searched so thoroughly. Guards swept the room in which I was meeting one of the MPs before they allowed him to come, and two of them scowled, just off camera, throughout the interview.

"Lebanese politics is very complex, it has always been very complex," Mohammed Qabbani said gravely. "But in recent years, it has also become very dangerous."

8 assassinations in 2 years

There are arguments that would refute the notion that danger is only a recent phenomenon in Lebanese politics: the long list of assassinated politicians is ample proof. But it is true that over the past couple of years, the violence has appeared with alarming regularity.

In all, eight anti-Syrian figures have been assassinated over the past two years, six of them legislators.

The majority blames Damascus for the killings. But Syria has repeatedly denied the accusation. No one has taken responsibility.

The first assassination was former prime minister Rafiq Hariri, slain along with 20 others in 2004.

The latest was just a few weeks ago: Phalange Party MP Antoine Ghanem, killed by a car bomb lying in wait on the side of a busy street. The Phalange is a right-wing Christian party that has already lost one other MP in the campaign of assassinations.

Delays in presidential vote

Like many other MPs, Ghanem had just returned from self-imposed exile for the summer months, in an effort to avoid assassination. He had returned to participate in a crucial vote in the national legislature, one in which MPs would choose the first new president to lead the country in nine years.

According to the constitution, the Lebanese president must be a Maronite Christian.

The last time Lebanese legislators chose a president was back in 1998. Sitting President Emile Lahoud would have normally served a six-year term as prescribed by the constitution. But in 2004, legislators amended the constitution to allow Lahoud to stay for three more years. The order to do so apparently came from Syria, Lebanon's political master at the time.

The vote Ghanem came home for never happened, because the opposition and the government cannot agree on who should be the next president. The government, teetering with a slim majority, could no longer afford to lose any more MPs. The ruling coalition — led by Saad Hariri, Rafik's son — was concerned about its members' welfare and put them up at the Intercontinental at great cost.

After a second delay, the vote is now set for Nov. 12. The MPs do not plan on going anywhere until then, and very likely won't after the vote, either.

Trying to break political stalemate

One would think that all of this would handicap Lebanon's affairs and complicate matters of state. The good news, if it can be called that, is that the government is already so paralyzed by its spat with the opposition that there's little that the forced confinement of the country's lawmakers can impede.

For a year, the government and the opposition have been unable to see eye to eye, each accusing the other of being a stooge to outside forces. Leaders of the two camps exchanged barbs solely through newspaper headlines and television sound bites. Until the failed vote in September, the legislature hadn't met in nearly a year.

The opposition set up a camp in downtown Beirut nearly a year ago and refuses to dismantle it until the government resigns, or gives the opposition more power. And though they can barely agree on the colour of the sky, now the two sides must together make a weighty decision — or risk plunging the country back into civil war.

Clearly they understand the stakes, because the ice appears to have been broken. There have been a series of first-time meetings between arch-foes, and negotiations are going on around the clock.

The hope is that the Maronite Christians can agree on a candidate to put forward from their community — the two sides have agreed that they will accept any candidate that the Maronites support.

But this time around, the Maronites are divided, some loyal to the opposition, others loyal to the government. They have formed a committee of Maronite members from both sides to try to find middle ground, but so far, they have yet to find it.

Presidential scenarios

A decision will require serious compromise. As starting positions, the West-backed, anti-Syrian majority wants one of its own as president, someone who is independent from Syria and is like-minded on issues such as disarming Hezbollah. The opposition, led by Hezbollah, wants a candidate who will protect the group's arms and ensure Lebanon isn't loyal to the West, and specifically the United States.

The legislators have until Nov. 24 to decide, because that's when Lahoud's term expires. The constitution stipulates that two-thirds of the legislators must approve a candidate before he (there is currently no "she" among the possible candidates) can become president.

There are several possible scenarios:

• The two sides fail to agree. The government goes ahead and chooses a president with a simple majority. That raises the ire of the opposition and increases the likelihood of bloodshed.
• Lahoud could appoint an interim successor, until such time as the two sides are able to choose a permanent replacement. That could raise the ire of the majority, who say that anyone that the pro-Syrian Lahoud appoints would also be loyal to Damascus.

It's possible both scenarios materialize together and lead to a worst-case one: two presidents and then, eventually, two prime ministers and two governments. The Lebanese had a taste of what that's like before, during the civil war. It's not an experiment they want to go through again.

Militias rearming

After the last few years of acrimony, Lebanon is ready to erupt on a moment's notice. It's become apparent recently that various Lebanese militias are rearming.

Weapons are reportedly flooding back in — and not just to Hezbollah. This is not an encouraging sign. It might be just the incentive the two opposing camps need to yield just enough to solve this.

Though hard to believe, there are some in each camp who, deep down, do want to go to war. In the end, it may only take those few who want it, to inflict war on the majority who don't. That's what happened last time.

And if it happens again, even the best hotels in Lebanon will offer little protection.

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