10 PRIVATE PASSENGER VEHICLES

Motor vehicle ownership and use continues growing at a faster pace than population and the economy in general; Canadian per capita ownership levels are higher than Europe's, but still lower than in the US.

The Legislative and Institutional Framework

Provinces and territories are responsible for licensing vehicles and drivers, as well as for regulating in-use vehicles. The federal government, under its powers to regulate interprovincial and international commerce, sets the standards for new vehicle safety, emissions and fuel consumption. ^{note 1} The rules of the road are set by the provinces, territories and municipalities. Enforcing those rules is the responsibility of either provincial or municipal police forces, or the Royal Canadian Mounted Police.

The Canadian motor vehicle fleet has grown almost without interruption since the first vehicles appeared early this century, reaching 17 million vehicles in 1995 (see Figure 10-1). More than 80 per cent of the fleet is registered in the four most populous provinces (see Figure 10-2).

About 13.2 million automobiles accounted for 78 per cent of all vehicles in 1995. Some 3.4 million trucks of all types made up 20 per cent of the total. The remaining two per cent of vehicles consisted of 319,000 motorcycles and mopeds and 64,000 buses.

The "truck" registrations are somewhat misleading, as they include large numbers of small vans, multi-purpose vehicles and pick-up trucks, which have become increasingly popular as alternatives to the more traditional passenger cars. Although technically trucks by construction, most are unlikely ever to be used commercially. Unfortunately, they are not distinguished in routine registration statistics from heavy trucks, so it is not possible to show precisely how they have grown relative to heavy trucks or passenger cars.

The number of heavy trucks - more than 4.5 tonnes gross (laden) weight - that are recognizable as such (i.e., that are larger than a step-van or similar vehicle) has been estimated recently to be only about 700,000. ^{note 2} About 100,000 of these are accounted for by for-hire carriers, and about 300,000 by private trucking fleets. The rest are owned singly or in small numbers by farmers, tradespeople, small businesses and so on, or can be found in government fleets. This leaves some 2.7 million vehicles that are technically "light trucks." It is estimated that these vehicles are used for private passenger travel about 80 per cent of the time, rather than for any business or commercial purpose. ^{note 3} The 1995 registrations are illustrated in Figure 10-3.

Growth in the size of the vehicle fleet appears to have slowed in the last two decades. Figure 10-4 shows the ratios of registered cars and trucks to population - about 560 vehicles per 1,000 persons in 1995. The flattening of the trend lines in recent years is clearly evident, particularly during the 1990s. Whether this is likely to continue, or whether vehicle sales are likely to resume their earlier proportions - raising fleet growth once again - is a matter for conjecture. It is noteworthy, however, that US vehicle ownership rates are still over 30 per cent higher than those in Canada and continue to rise. The 1995 per capita ownership rate in Canada is similar to that of the US in the early 1970s.

There were 19.6 million licensed drivers in Canada in 1995 - three times what there were in 1960. Intriguingly, the ratio of drivers to vehicles has remained relatively stable: there are currently about 114 drivers for every 100 registered vehicles, down slightly from about 120 in 1960.

As well as representing growth in the adult population, the growth in the number of drivers reflects two other trends, illustrated in Figure 10-5. First, the proportion of the entire adult population (aged 15 and over) holding a driving licence rose from 50 per cent in 1960 to more than 80 per cent in 1995. Second, the age structure of the population has changed, with fewer children and increased longevity combining to raise the proportion of adults from 65 per cent in 1960 to 80 per cent in 1995. Since the proportion of the elderly population holding driving licences is still substantially lower than that of younger adults, it can be expected that the proportion of licensed adults will continue to rise for some decades, although at a slower pace.

Unfortunately, the nature and extent of private passenger travel is not described in Canadian transport statistics. The focus of the national transport statistics program has always been on the activities of the public carriers, and there have been no national surveys of passenger vehicle use. Provincial highway traffic volume counts provide estimates of traffic on those sub-networks, but they account for only the minority of total national vehicle-kilometres or passenger-kilometres by passenger vehicles. The majority of private passenger traffic is on urban and local roads. A national survey for tourism purposes - the Canadian Travel Survey - obtains information biennially on long-distance (more than 80 kilometres one way) or overnight travel by private passenger vehicles, but this survey addresses only a minority of total passenger-kilometres. ^{note 4}

An estimate of total traffic can be made from records of fuel sales, with calculations based on the average fuel consumption of the vehicle fleet. Unfortunately, fuel consumption is also unavailable from any routine survey, so the estimate for the Canadian fleet must be deduced from US national statistics on total fuel sales and total vehicle- kilometres. ^{note 5}

Figure 10-6 shows the resulting estimates of vehicle-kilometres of private travel, separately for cars and light trucks. The totals in 1995 are approximately 200 billion vehicle-kilometres by car and another 50 billion by light trucks and vans. If the US trends in average fuel consumption can be applied to Canada, the growth over five decades has been as shown in the figure. The data for individual years are very uncertain following this procedure, but the broad trends are clear. They suggest growth at an average rate of about 4.6 per cent each year for cars and more than six per cent each year for light trucks, or a combined annual rate of approximately five per cent.

Estimating the number of passenger-kilometres involved in this traffic is even more hazardous, as there are no direct measurements - nor even reliable estimates - of average vehicle occupancies in Canada. By comparison with US data, a figure of 1.9 is considered appropriate for 1995, ^{note 6} giving an estimate of 380 billion total passenger-kilometres for cars and 95 billion for light trucks (for a total of 475 billion). Finally, estimating the change in average occupancy over time allows the vehicle-kilometre trend over time to be converted into passenger-kilometres, as illustrated in Figure 10-7.^{note 7}

Vehicle Ownership

The ownership and use of vehicles is influenced strongly by household income. Figure 10-8 shows proportions of households owning different numbers of vehicles. About half of those in the lowest income group own no vehicles, but this is true for fewer than three per cent of those in the highest income group.

On the other hand, the proportion owning two or more vehicles rises rapidly from 10 per cent for the lowest income group to more than 70 per cent for the highest group. The lack of vehicle usage data prevents an examination of vehicle- kilometres and passenger-kilometres by income, but it can be expected that both rise faster than income. Surveys of family spending show that, not only does spending on private vehicle use rise with income, so also does the proportion of income spent on it.

These findings imply that the recent lack of real growth in disposable income in Canada^{note 8} has constrained the growth of vehicle ownership and use, and that both can be expected to increase as average real incomes rise in the future.

Vehicle ownership in North America has led the developed world throughout this century, but much of Europe and Japan has caught up rapidly in recent decades. Ownership remains 10 to 20 per cent higher in Canada than in France, Germany and Japan, and 25 per cent higher than in the United Kingdom (see Figure 10-9).