Quebec Premier Jean Charest and leader of the Parti libéral du Québec looked very un-prime-ministerial today after the election of the new speaker of the National Assembly.
Over the weekend, the Action démocratique du Québec and the Parti québécois got together and decided to present François Gendron, PQ MNA since 1976 from Abtibi-Témiscamingue, as their mutual candidate. Before this decision had been made, the ADQ and the PQ each presented their own candidates for speaker as did the PLQ, who nominated Yvon Vallières.
Traditionally, each party, if they did nominate their own candidate, would vote according to party lines, ensuring that the speaker would always be from the governing party. Up until the end of last week the ADQ and PQ candidates were still on the ballot, and they had spoken to the PLQ caucus as such.
The ADQ was absolutely opposed to the candidature of Vallières who they considered too partisan to occupy the post (Vallières personally insulted Dumont) and so approached the PQ. In the end, by secret ballot Gendron was elected Speaker of the National Assembly.
The PLQ, and Jean Charest in particular, were livid. They did not applaud Gendron's election nor either of the two speeches by ADQ leader Mario Dumont and PQ leader Pauline Marois. Charest also did not, as is tradition, ceremoniously drag Gendron to the speaker's chair along with the two other party leaders.
Charest's speech was extremely critical of both Gendron and the two parties. Gendron twice had to reprimand Charest for questioning the motives of Gendron and the two parties, something which is forbidden in the National Assembly.
Charest's general argument is that 216 years of tradition have been broken, and that the two parties broke their word with this change of plan over the weekend.
Firstly, in defense of Gendron, 216 years of tradition doesn't quite apply in this case. This is the first minority government in Quebec in about a century. That the governing party was able to elect its own speaker in a majority government is no surprise. That it isn't as simple in a minority government should also come as no surprise.
Secondly, the PLQ knew what they were getting into when word of nominating Vallières came out. Dumont made it clear that his party would not support his election months ago, and pointed out that in a minority government co-operation was necessary. Charest, who speaks of co-habitation in the National Assembly, ignored Dumont's warning and nominated Vallières anyway. If anyone breached the confidence of this co-habitation, as Charest accuses the opposition parties of doing, it is Jean Charest. He stirred up the hornet's nest by not nominating someone more acceptable than Vallières.
The two opposition parties and François Gendron (who is a well-respected MNA and well-liked by myself) broke absolutely no laws or regulations. His election was by the book, fair, and legal. Charest questions the method in which it was done, but has decided to, despite his flailing, accept the democratic will of the National Assembly.
By nominating Vallières, this is Premier Charest's fault. But this may be to his benefit. With the polling numbers decent (but in no way spectacular), Charest is slowly building up a case to bring about the next election.
But he should remember a few things. Firstly, Quebecers don't like a moody Charest. Charest's numbers go up when he is uncontroversial and pleasant. Secondly, the federal House of Commons has been presided over by Liberal MP Peter Miliken, despite the Conservatives being in government. With this situation in Ottawa I don't think Quebecers will be enraged or even bothered by this co-operation between the ADQ and the PQ. People are becoming cynical with politics and partisanship. Acts of co-operation are always looked at with a kind eye, and this partisan bickering on the part of Jean Charest will not make him more popular. To boot, Gendron has been around forever and is well-respected. Mounting a negative campaign against the opposition parties because of his election will most likely be ineffective, if not detrimental to the party's chances of being elected with a majority government.
Congratulations, M. Gendron. With 32 years of service to the nation under your belt, you do not deserve the disrespect of Jean Charest, who has been around for 10. You do, however, deserve the honour of being Speaker of the National Assembly.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Monday, October 20, 2008
Dion Out, Who's Next?
Stéphane Dion will stay on as Liberal leader until a new one is chosen, probably in May. Old news.
A question for the peanut gallery: is Bob Rae electable? Some people tell me that his performance as Premier of Ontario more or less bars him from winning many seats in Ontario (where the Liberals need to win them). True? False? What do you Westerners think of him?
A question for the peanut gallery: is Bob Rae electable? Some people tell me that his performance as Premier of Ontario more or less bars him from winning many seats in Ontario (where the Liberals need to win them). True? False? What do you Westerners think of him?
Canada, the Bilingual Country
My girlfriend's organisation held a dinner last night and I accompanied her. The organisation she works for is national, so there were members of the organisation from throughout the country present. Our table included an Albertan, a Torontonian, and a local resident of Ottawa.
Eventually, the conversation turned to language. The three of them agreed: French was a dying, useless language. They were saying that learning Mandarin or Spanish would be more valuable for their children.
My girlfriend and I, of course, disagreed, both of us being bilingual, I from Quebec and her from Ontario.
It was disappointing to see Canadians disparage French so much, and to consider it less useful than Spanish or Mandarin. I'm sorry, but in Canada there are infinitely more jobs which require French than Spanish or Mandarin. Will you be useful if you can speak Spanish or Mandarin? Sure. But you have far more options if you speak French, a language which is spoken by at least one country or region on every continent.
Anyway, having studied in Kingston, a very francophobic town despite being only a few hours away from the Quebec border, it doesn't surprise me that Canadians feel this way. It would be nice, though, if Canada stopped pretending that it didn't.
Eventually, the conversation turned to language. The three of them agreed: French was a dying, useless language. They were saying that learning Mandarin or Spanish would be more valuable for their children.
My girlfriend and I, of course, disagreed, both of us being bilingual, I from Quebec and her from Ontario.
It was disappointing to see Canadians disparage French so much, and to consider it less useful than Spanish or Mandarin. I'm sorry, but in Canada there are infinitely more jobs which require French than Spanish or Mandarin. Will you be useful if you can speak Spanish or Mandarin? Sure. But you have far more options if you speak French, a language which is spoken by at least one country or region on every continent.
Anyway, having studied in Kingston, a very francophobic town despite being only a few hours away from the Quebec border, it doesn't surprise me that Canadians feel this way. It would be nice, though, if Canada stopped pretending that it didn't.
Black or White
Former Secretary of State Colin Powell endorsed Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama over the weekend. This is significant because Powell is held in high-regard in the United States and is also a Republican. A double-victory for Obama. But one thing bothered me about it.
Powell was questioned by a reporter whether this was about or would be seen as Powell supporting Obama because they are both black. The proper response to that question, which isn't what Powell said, would be to ask if the former Secretaries of State that have endorsed John McCain did so because they're white.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Real Gains, Real Losses
Rather than looking at seat totals and the popular vote percentage, I think it is far more interesting to look at actual vote totals. When we do that, we find out that the only party who gained votes in this election was the Green Party.
The Conservatives received 5,374,071 votes in 2006 but in 2008 earned only 5,205,334. While their percentage of the popular vote went up, fewer people, 168,737 fewer or 3.1% of their vote to be exact, voted for the Conservatives in this election.
The Liberal numbers are even worse. Their vote total went from 4,479,415 votes to 3,629,990, a drop of 849,425 votes or 19.0%.
The Bloc also lost voters, going from 1,553,201 supporters to 1,379,565, a drop of 173,636 votes or 11.2%.
Even the NDP lost votes, going from 2,589,597 votes to 2,517,075. Of the major parties, this was the best performance since they only lost 72,522 supporters or 2.8% of their vote.
The big winners were the Greens. Despite lower voter turnout (which I contend is a statement of its own against a party), the Greens improved their vote totals from 664,068 to 940,747, a gain of 296,679 votes or 44.7%!
When you look at it in this, I believe, more accurate way, every party except the Greens were losers on Tuesday.
The Conservatives received 5,374,071 votes in 2006 but in 2008 earned only 5,205,334. While their percentage of the popular vote went up, fewer people, 168,737 fewer or 3.1% of their vote to be exact, voted for the Conservatives in this election.
The Liberal numbers are even worse. Their vote total went from 4,479,415 votes to 3,629,990, a drop of 849,425 votes or 19.0%.
The Bloc also lost voters, going from 1,553,201 supporters to 1,379,565, a drop of 173,636 votes or 11.2%.
Even the NDP lost votes, going from 2,589,597 votes to 2,517,075. Of the major parties, this was the best performance since they only lost 72,522 supporters or 2.8% of their vote.
The big winners were the Greens. Despite lower voter turnout (which I contend is a statement of its own against a party), the Greens improved their vote totals from 664,068 to 940,747, a gain of 296,679 votes or 44.7%!
When you look at it in this, I believe, more accurate way, every party except the Greens were losers on Tuesday.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
ThreeHundredEight.com
While I still have a lot of eyeballs on my blog, I thought I'd mention my future website, threehundredeight.com. If you go to the site, you won't be allowed to view it because it isn't ready. But I wanted to mention it so you can add it to your bookmarks.
The site is inspired by the American juggernaut fivethirtyeight.com. It will be an electoral projection site with a projection system far more in-depth than the one I used during this election.
The site will have projections for both Canadian federal elections and Quebec provincial elections. The Canadian version will not be up for a little while, but the Quebec projections should be up and running in the next few weeks. I will mention them here when they are ready.
Thanks for reading during this federal election! I hope you'll all stick around.
The site is inspired by the American juggernaut fivethirtyeight.com. It will be an electoral projection site with a projection system far more in-depth than the one I used during this election.
The site will have projections for both Canadian federal elections and Quebec provincial elections. The Canadian version will not be up for a little while, but the Quebec projections should be up and running in the next few weeks. I will mention them here when they are ready.
Thanks for reading during this federal election! I hope you'll all stick around.
The Results
While the overall result of the election comes as no surprise (Conservative minority, weakened Liberals, strengthened NDP), there are many surprises when you go a little deeper. The national results:
Conservatives - 143 seats - 37.7%
Liberals - 76 seats - 26.3%
Bloc Québécois - 50 seats - 10.0%
New Democrats - 37 seats - 18.2%
Greens - 0 seats - 6.8%
Independents - 2 seats - 0.65%
The big winner is clearly the Conservatives, who are up 19 seats from the last election and 16 from dissolution. But they are only up 1.4%, which is very marginal. Considering the weakness of the Liberal Party, the Conservatives still haven't managed to convince Canadians to vote for them. The Conservative victory is mostly because of the gains of the NDP and Greens.
The Liberals lose 27 seats from the last election and 19 from dissolution. A horrible defeat. They lost 3.9% of the popular vote and are probably at their floor. Stéphane Dion lost this election, and has to be ousted if the Liberals want to return to power.
The Bloc won one fewer seat than in 2006, but gained two from dissolution. Their share of the popular vote went down by 0.5%. The Bloc can be satisfied with this result, they have maintained a strong caucus and popular support.
The New Democrats are the second big winners, increasing their caucus by 8 seats from 2006 and 7 from dissolution. They also increased their support by 0.8%, which is less impressive. But Jack Layton has led the NDP to their second best performance in history, so he should be satisfied with this evening.
The Greens had a bittersweet result. The Greens made the headlines but not Parliament. They increased their popular support by 2.3%, which is impressive for a fifth party. But without any regional popularity, they will never win. Having 6.8% support nationally is no small feat, but if your popular support in most ridings is less than 5% you aren't a major party.
Now, the regional breakdowns. First, British Columbia:
Conservatives - 22 seats - 44.4%
New Democrats - 9 seats - 26.1%
Liberals - 5 seats - 19.3%
Greens - 0 seats - 9.4%
The Liberals lost four seats and 8.3% of the popular vote. The NDP maintained and the Conservatives soared by 5 seats and 7.1%. The Greens increased their vote by 4.1%, an impressive tally.
Alberta was no surprise, the Conservatives taking 64.6% of the vote. The biggest surprise was the defeat of Rahim Jaffer in Edmonton-Strathcona by the NDP.
Saskatchewan too went blue, though the Liberals did win Wascana for Ralph Goodale. The NDP, despite having 25.6% of the vote (11% more than the Liberals), did not win a seat.
Manitoba sees the Conservatives and NDP up, the Liberals down.
The Ontario results:
Conservatives - 51 seats - 39.2%
Liberals - 38 seats - 33.8%
New Democrats - 17 seats - 18.2%
Greens - 0 seats - 8.0%
Here is where the election was won and lost. The Conservatives increased their support by 4.1% and 11 seats. The Liberals sank by 6.1% and 16 seats, representing virtually all of their national loss. The NDP, surprisingly, did badly in Ontario. Though they did win 5 seats, an impressive result, they lost 1.6% of the popular vote. The NDP needs to look at why this happened, and it is probably because of the greens, who gained 3.3% to no avail.
The Quebec results:
Bloc Québécois - 50 seats - 38.1%
Liberals - 13 seats - 23.7%
Conservatives - 10 seats - 21.7%
New Democrats - 1 seat - 12.2%
Independents - 1 seat - 0.64%
The Conservatives lost their majority here, losing one seat (from dissolution), but more importantly 2.9% of the popular vote. The Conservatives wanted 20 seats. You can't get that by losing votes. Considering the Conservatives were up everywhere, their performance in Quebec is surprisingly bad. The Bloc has nothing to be ashamed of, they won only one fewer seat than in 2006 and gained two from dissolution. They lost 4% of the popular vote, which is significant, but most of that went to the NDP. The Bloc performance is still better than 1997 for the popular vote and better than 1997 and 2000 for the seat totals. The NDP did well in Quebec - for once - winning their first seat in a general election and gaining an astonishing 8.2% of the popular vote. The Liberals also did well, while they did badly everywhere else, gaining no seats but 3% of the popular vote. Here is the silver lining for the Grits.
New Brunswick went blue, with 6 seats for the Conservatives from 3, all coming from the Liberals. Nova Scotia stayed more or less the same, but the Greens went from 2.6% to 8.0%, mostly because of Elizabeth May. PEI was a big surprise with the Conservatives finally winning a seat, and Newfoundland was the one province where the Conservatives were shut out. Their 3 seats went to the Liberals and the NDP (who won their first seat in Newfoundland in a general election). Danny Williams' ABC campaign was a complete success, with Conservative support dropping from 42.7% to 16.5%!
A very interesting election. I will certainly be pouring over these results for weeks.
Conservatives - 143 seats - 37.7%
Liberals - 76 seats - 26.3%
Bloc Québécois - 50 seats - 10.0%
New Democrats - 37 seats - 18.2%
Greens - 0 seats - 6.8%
Independents - 2 seats - 0.65%
The big winner is clearly the Conservatives, who are up 19 seats from the last election and 16 from dissolution. But they are only up 1.4%, which is very marginal. Considering the weakness of the Liberal Party, the Conservatives still haven't managed to convince Canadians to vote for them. The Conservative victory is mostly because of the gains of the NDP and Greens.
The Liberals lose 27 seats from the last election and 19 from dissolution. A horrible defeat. They lost 3.9% of the popular vote and are probably at their floor. Stéphane Dion lost this election, and has to be ousted if the Liberals want to return to power.
The Bloc won one fewer seat than in 2006, but gained two from dissolution. Their share of the popular vote went down by 0.5%. The Bloc can be satisfied with this result, they have maintained a strong caucus and popular support.
The New Democrats are the second big winners, increasing their caucus by 8 seats from 2006 and 7 from dissolution. They also increased their support by 0.8%, which is less impressive. But Jack Layton has led the NDP to their second best performance in history, so he should be satisfied with this evening.
The Greens had a bittersweet result. The Greens made the headlines but not Parliament. They increased their popular support by 2.3%, which is impressive for a fifth party. But without any regional popularity, they will never win. Having 6.8% support nationally is no small feat, but if your popular support in most ridings is less than 5% you aren't a major party.
Now, the regional breakdowns. First, British Columbia:
Conservatives - 22 seats - 44.4%
New Democrats - 9 seats - 26.1%
Liberals - 5 seats - 19.3%
Greens - 0 seats - 9.4%
The Liberals lost four seats and 8.3% of the popular vote. The NDP maintained and the Conservatives soared by 5 seats and 7.1%. The Greens increased their vote by 4.1%, an impressive tally.
Alberta was no surprise, the Conservatives taking 64.6% of the vote. The biggest surprise was the defeat of Rahim Jaffer in Edmonton-Strathcona by the NDP.
Saskatchewan too went blue, though the Liberals did win Wascana for Ralph Goodale. The NDP, despite having 25.6% of the vote (11% more than the Liberals), did not win a seat.
Manitoba sees the Conservatives and NDP up, the Liberals down.
The Ontario results:
Conservatives - 51 seats - 39.2%
Liberals - 38 seats - 33.8%
New Democrats - 17 seats - 18.2%
Greens - 0 seats - 8.0%
Here is where the election was won and lost. The Conservatives increased their support by 4.1% and 11 seats. The Liberals sank by 6.1% and 16 seats, representing virtually all of their national loss. The NDP, surprisingly, did badly in Ontario. Though they did win 5 seats, an impressive result, they lost 1.6% of the popular vote. The NDP needs to look at why this happened, and it is probably because of the greens, who gained 3.3% to no avail.
The Quebec results:
Bloc Québécois - 50 seats - 38.1%
Liberals - 13 seats - 23.7%
Conservatives - 10 seats - 21.7%
New Democrats - 1 seat - 12.2%
Independents - 1 seat - 0.64%
The Conservatives lost their majority here, losing one seat (from dissolution), but more importantly 2.9% of the popular vote. The Conservatives wanted 20 seats. You can't get that by losing votes. Considering the Conservatives were up everywhere, their performance in Quebec is surprisingly bad. The Bloc has nothing to be ashamed of, they won only one fewer seat than in 2006 and gained two from dissolution. They lost 4% of the popular vote, which is significant, but most of that went to the NDP. The Bloc performance is still better than 1997 for the popular vote and better than 1997 and 2000 for the seat totals. The NDP did well in Quebec - for once - winning their first seat in a general election and gaining an astonishing 8.2% of the popular vote. The Liberals also did well, while they did badly everywhere else, gaining no seats but 3% of the popular vote. Here is the silver lining for the Grits.
New Brunswick went blue, with 6 seats for the Conservatives from 3, all coming from the Liberals. Nova Scotia stayed more or less the same, but the Greens went from 2.6% to 8.0%, mostly because of Elizabeth May. PEI was a big surprise with the Conservatives finally winning a seat, and Newfoundland was the one province where the Conservatives were shut out. Their 3 seats went to the Liberals and the NDP (who won their first seat in Newfoundland in a general election). Danny Williams' ABC campaign was a complete success, with Conservative support dropping from 42.7% to 16.5%!
A very interesting election. I will certainly be pouring over these results for weeks.
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