Green Party at 26% in BC: Angus Reid; Greens set to win numerous seats in BC

"In British Columbia, the Greens have surged to 26%," notes the latest Angus Reid Strategies poll released this weekend (Sept 13). The Greens are ahead of the Liberals and NDP (see chart above). Put simply this means the Green Party is set to win numerous seats in BC.

The poll points out that Elizabeth May is the only national leader with a positive momentum score. May's momentum score is +7 while Harper's is -18, Dion's is -17 and Layton's is -6. In Quebec, Duceppe's momentum score is -14.

May's leadership rating at 25% is ahead of Dion's and just 4% behind Layton and 11% behind Harper. You can download the full study at http://angusreidstrategies.com/uploads/pages/pdfs/2008.09.13_ARPW.pdf

Greens are Shaking Up the Political Landscape
The Green Party's momentum coming out of the first week of the campaign is really shaking up this election. Here are some of the highlights from polling from different research firms in the first week of the campaign:

The Green Party is the #1 choice of Gen X voters in large Canadian cities; (EKOS)

Green supporters are more likely to vote than supporters of any other party; (Ipsos-Reid)

The NDP and Conservatives reversed their opposition to Elizabeth May being in the leaders debates because it threatened their electoral chances in key swing ridings; (Strategic Counsel)

Conservative support fell an average of 1% a day for the first five days of the campaign according to a 5,000 sample size poll. (EKOS)

Green Party #1 Choice for Gen X in Large Cities
An EKOS poll of nearly 5,000 Canadians in three big cities found “the Green Party is making remarkable inroads with post-baby-boomers.”

EKOS surveyed in Canada’s three largest metropolitan areas – Toronto, Montreal and the lower mainland in BC (Vancouver).

In Toronto and Vancouver, the Green Party is in first place among “generation Y” voters – those aged 18 to 25.

In the lower mainland in BC the 35% of voters who are 18-25 say they’re voting Green vs. 27% for the conservatives; 22% for Liberals and 16% for the NDP.

In Toronto 31% of voters who are 18-25 say that if the election were held tomorrow that they would vote Green vs. 29% Liberal; 22% NDP and 18% Conservative.

In Montreal the Green Party is in first place among “generation X voters – those aged between 25 and 33.

To read the full poll online go to http://www.ekoselection.com/index.php/2008/09/liberals-stop-their-rot-in... or to download the full study at http://www.ekoselection.com/wp-content/uploads/1048-ivr-week-1-metro-fin...

Conservative support falls significantly in first week
A separate EKOS poll of 5,000 – the largest sample size of any published poll in the election to date, and therefore the most accurate because it has the lowest margin of error, shows the Conservatives slipping an average 1% a day for the first five days of the campaign – falling to 34% on Thursday (below their level of support on Election Day in 2006). The net effect of this was that the Conservative lead over the Liberals fell 8% in the first week of the campaign. See http://www.ekoselection.com/index.php/2008/09/tory-lead-over-liberals-dr...

Green Party supporters “Most Likely to Vote”
Green Party supporters are the most like to go and cast their ballots than supporters of any other party, according to the Ipsos Reid poll released this weekend (Sept 13).

Of Green supporters 67% indicate that they are “absolutely certain” to vote. Next are Conservative supporters 66%; Liberal 59%; NDP 58%; Bloc 57%.

Accordign to Ipsos Reid, the Green Party has 11% support across Canada – in a statistical tie with the NDP at 13%. The Liberals are at 29% and the Tories at 38%, The study has some other interesting findings.

The NDP which had opposed May’s inclusion in the debate and as a reuslt suffered significant criticism, dropped 3% -- ending up at 13% in this poll.

In vote rich Ontario, the Greens and NDP are both at 13% while the Liberals lead the Conservatives 40% to 33%.

In Alberta the Green Party is more than double the NDP’s support (11% vs. 5%).

The poll was conducted September 9 to 11 of 1,016 Canadian adults. To read about it online and download the full study and detailed tables go to http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=4070

NDP and Conservatives Reversal on Leaders Debates Driven by Voters – Particularly Female Voters in Key Swing Ridings
A poll this past week by Strategic Counsel points out very clearly to why the NDP and then the Conservatives reversed their position opposing Elizabeth May in the televised leaders debates.

In key swing ridings in Ontario, British Columbia and Quebec more than 70% of voters believe that Elizabeth May should have been included in the televised leaders debates. And with female voters it was closer to 80%. This explains the reversal by the NDP and Conservatives – they were losing support – especially with female voters in these key swing seats. Had they held to their anti democratic position they risked alienating voters and losing key seats. See page 15 or 16 at http://www.thestrategiccounsel.com/our_news/polls/2008-09-11%20Election%20Tracking%20(reporting%20Sept%208-10)%20for%20web.pdf