Ivan Moore Research. 10/17-19. Likely voters. MoE 4.4%. (10/3-6 numbers)

Ugh. That's some critical ground lost for Orange to Blue candidate Mark Begich.

This race has been tight for a while...too tight, especially as Stevens is under indictment. The case of US vs Stevens went to jury today. If Stevens is convicted, Begich will win. If he is acquitted, Stevens is favored strongly, though he could still lose.

Those taking this race for granted should think again; while Begich's favorables are still very high, Stevens has a good chance of winning reelection.

In the House race, however, the news is far better:

Ivan Moore Research. 10/17-19. Likely voters. MoE 4.4%. (10/3-6 numbers)

Well, with two weeks to go, and no trial pending, no last-ditch chance to save himself, Don Young looks pretty doomed.

Some of the best news: Obama and Biden are closing in in the presidential race:

Ivan Moore Research. 10/17-19. Likely voters. MoE 4.4%. (10/3-6 numbers)

The "Palin effect" seems to be wearing off even in a state where she could do no wrong for two years.

On the web:
Mark Begich for Senate
Ethan Berkowitz for Congress
Orange to Blue ActBlue page

Tonight's Rescue Rangers are srkp23, vcmvo2, jennyjem, HansScholl, BentLiberal, Avila and grog.

• professorfate gathers the facts and figures concerning the ongoing redistribution of wealth and declares Finally, a War McCain Does Not Like. (srkp23)
• dconrad is outraged about U.S. medical care in Hospital bills woman after 19 hour wait in the ER; another man died waiting. (BentLiberal)
• drational provides another angle on an important issue in Stealing Obama Votes in Indiana: Court Ruling Today. (jennyjem)
• KingOneEye lays out the crucial facts in Who Do The Troops Support? Don't Ask Fox News! (srkp23)
• The Bargeron pens a thoughtful diary about a conservative friend's vote for Obama in I Got A Picture Message this Morning. (BentLiberal)
• Xapulin uses poetry and images to reflect on the struggle for equality in the civil rights movement: I is the total black, being spoken (photo essay). (vcmvo2)
• Tirge Caps reports that the White House Guts Last Provisions Protecting Streams from Mountaintop Mining and calls for action. (srkp23)
• blueness reports the story of three men who were falsely imprisoned in "These Three Men Were Sacrificed To Show The United States That Canada Was Doing Something." (jennyjem)
• mhojo gives a comprehensive summary of the legalities of the Indiana Voting Lawsuit: Early Voting Can Continue. (BentLiberal)
• craigkg calls for an end to the lip-service and feels it's time to push The 2009 Homosexual Agenda™. (jennyjem)
• AustinLiberal writes movingly about why voting No on proposition 8 is so important, in You Can't Sign The Death Certificate But You Can Pay For The Funeral. (vcmvo2)
• UnaSpenser responds to a diary on the failing health of a fellow Kossack with a touching story of her own in How Many of Us Have Fallen Through the Cracks? (BentLiberal)

jotter gives us the day's High Impact Diaries - October 21, 2008, while noweasels has Top Comments: Call to Action! Yes YOU Can!

Shamelessly self promote your diary or pimp for a friend in this Open Thread!

PLEASE NOTE - This is not an open thread and is intended for diaries and discussion of downticket races.

For all the introductory stuff and links to previous diaries in the series, please look below the fold...

This Rescue Diary covers the period from 12:00 Noon, Tuesday, 10/21 to 12:00 Noon EDT, Wednesday, 10/22

Today's Menu Includes :
78 Diaries Overall

- 42 On House races

- With 30 covering individual Districts in 23 states

- 12 On Senate races

- Representing 8 different states

- 18 On Various election races and ballot issues

- Encompassing Governor, Secretary of State, Local, and more

- 6 General election-related diaries

Follow us for more, come on in............

Let's pretend we have a time machine.  And let us travel back in time to visit wise words from the John McCain of old. Let's travel back to May 25, 1993, specifically, when the old John McCain stood on the floor of the Senate and presented the following eloquent condemnation of the abuse of campaign funds (PDF):

Mr. McCAIN. Madam President, the amendment before the Senate is a very simple one. It restricts the use of campaign funds for inherently personal purposes. The amendment would restrict individuals from using campaign funds for such things as home mortgage payments, clothing purchases, noncampaign automobile expenses, country club memberships, and vacations or other trips that are noncampaign in nature.

Madam President, I want to emphasize I will be citing some examples of how campaign funds have been used which are extremely egregious, but I want to point out they are not illegal, and the purpose of this amendment is to restrict the use of those campaign funds because, if we are truly going to have campaign finance reform, I do not believe that campaign funds should be used for such things as country club dues, tuxedos, vacations, and other purposes for which they are now almost routinely used by certain Members of both bodies.

I point out that Senators and Members of Congress currently earn $139,000 a year, which means that Members of Congress are in the top 1 percent of wage earners in the country. So let there be no mistake, Members of Congress do earn a good wage, a wage that does not leave them poor.

I think it is worth contrasting a Member's salary and perks with that of a typical American family.

According to the U.S. census, in 1990 the median family income in America was $30,056. With that $30,056, the average American family was expected to put a roof over their head, feed their children, and send them to school. It seems to me that we should be able to survive as well at a salary level of $139,000 per year. [ed. note: Sarah Palin's salary as Governor of Alaska is $125,000 per year]

The use of campaign funds for items which most Americans would consider to be strictly personal reasons, in my view, erodes public confidence and erodes it significantly.

Sara Fritz, a reporter for the Los Angeles Times, in her book `Handbook of Campaign Spending' calls campaign funds that are used for personal reasons nothing more than a slush fund. [...]

Under House and Senate ethics rules, Members of Congress must use campaign funds for political--not personal--purposes. Yet the commonly accepted definition of a political expenditure has grown so broad and enforcement of the rules has been so lax that congressional campaigns now routinely make purchases that on their face appear to be personal, such as resort vacations, luxury automobiles, expensive meals, apartments, country club memberships, tuxedos, home improvements, baby sitting, and car phones.

I want to point out again, Madam President, that the examples I am going to cite are legal and they will seem egregious, but the fact is, in my view, they should be severely restricted.

Further, Ms. Fritz later concisely points out:

In many cases, in fact, [the use of campaign funds for personal purposes] has transformed middle-class politicians into members of the country club set, isolating them from their constituency.

One major reason the public does not approve of Congress is that they believe we are isolated and nonresponsive, and we, of course, do not want to maintain a policy that encourages the Congress to be even more separated and disconnected from the people.

If we in Congress learned one thing from President Clinton's $200 haircut last week, it should be that the public does not approve of its elected officials being treated as royalty. We should be no different.

The solution to this problem is simple; restrict the use of campaign funds solely to campaign purposes. [...]

According to Ms. Fritz, campaign funds have been used to buy items such as globes and trips to exotic locales such as Thailand, Taiwan, and Italy, tuxedos and an unexplainable $299 for bow ties.

I cannot imagine being able to justify to the public what will soon be the use of tax dollars in this fashion. [...]

I point out these abuses, in my view what are abuses, because they are certainly not what the average contributor intends for their funds to go to.

And the old, principled John McCain reiterated his stance on the issue in January of 1994 (PDF):

Mr. President, I do not believe the general public is aware of how their campaign contributions are being used. I think it would be fair to say that if they did, they would be outraged, and well they should be.

According to Ms. Fritz, campaign funds have been used to buy such items as a jumbo illuminated globe from Hammacher Schlemmer, for trips to exotic locals such as Thailand, Taiwan, and Italy, and for tuxedos and an unexplainable $299 for bow ties. [...]

Mr. President, it is time to break with the norm. What is occurring is wrong, and it must be stopped. T[...]

It is time the Congress, and those whose privilege it is to serve there, learn to live within its means. Restricting the use of campaign funds for personal purposes is a vital first step in that direction.

And what does the new McCain have to say about Sarah Palin's "abuses" and "erosion of public confidence"? The campaign said it was "remarkable" that people were even discussing the issue.  Apparently, if the new McCain has a time machine of his own, he would travel back in time and tell the old John McCain to shut the hell up.

The blaring headline at the Seattle Time's, what passes as Seattle's "leading" paper, Darcy Burner's claims of a Harvard degree in economics aren't true" and the subsequent story would lead one to think Darcy Burner was a serial liar.

Until someone asks the real question, which Matt Stoller did:

Burner has a degree in computer science and economics from Harvard, as her website says.  Having gone to Harvard, I know how this works.  You get a degree under one department, take classes in another, write a thesis joining the two, and that thesis is reviewed by professors from both departments.  It's actually much harder to get a joint degree, but the registrar shows a degree only from one department because Harvard doesn't have minors.  In fact, economics is a fairly easy degree to get, while computer science and economics takes a lot more work.

Heffter took this to mean that Burner made up her Harvard degree, and misquotes Harvard officials to prove the story.  Heffter quotes Harvard computer science professor Harry Lewis, who supervised the computer science students when Burner attended Harvard.

"She doesn't have a degree in economics," he said. "It's a specialty within the computer science degree that she has."

Here's Harry Lewis's recounting of the conversation.

Talked to her and told her you had a degree in CS with a specialization in Ec. She said you were claiming to have a degree in Ec and I just repeated myself. She asked me what that consisted of and I said a block of Ec courses. She started to ask me if that would make you qualified ... and I cut her off, saying I couldn't judge economics qualifications. She thanked me and said that was helpful.

Meanwhile, the real story happening in the 8th Congressional District, which the Times intrepid reporter seems intent upon ignoring, is the illegal loan Reichert has received to run his advertising.

Bellevue (October 22) – The campaign of 8th District Democratic congressional candidate Darcy Burner today filed a complaint with the Federal Elections Commission over a six-figure illegal loan provided to the campaign of Republican incumbent Dave Reichert by his media buying firm.

The complaint comes in response to the Burner campaign’s discovery last Friday that Reichert had secured more than $1 million in television advertising time for the closing two weeks of the campaign despite being short of cash.

Reichert is able to run the ads only because he is receiving an illegal corporate loan from his media purchasing firm, Media Plus+, which is guaranteeing to pay television for the ad time after the election. The firm appears to be loaning the money so Reichert can purchase at least $580,000 of television time that he lacks the funds to pay for. That is a clear violation of the Federal Election Campaign Act, which "prohibits corporations from making contributions or expenditures in connection with Federal elections," according to the complaint filed with the FEC, see document.

That's on top of the NRCC's massive investment in his race, more than has gone into any other Republican incumbent's race. HorsesAss has more on the illegal loan. Reichert can't pay for his own media because he hasn't been able to match Burner in fundraising. Another story beyond Seattle Times reporter Emily Heffter seems incapable of following.

Don't hold your breath waiting for Heffter to report on this story of Reichert's skirting the law, either. The shiny object of Burner's college degree is just far too distracting for this "reporter."

On the web:
Darcy Burner for Congress
Orange to Blue ActBlue Page

Update: Heffter "reports" on the FEC complaint:

Reichert campaign spokeswoman Amanda Halligan said Media Plus+ pays for the ads and then sends the campaign a bill. They pay it, she said, "like any other business."

"There’s no loan associated with it," she said.

Which ignores the fact that the ad buy puts Reichert about $580,000 in the red. This would make the ad buy by Media Plus an illegal campaign contribution, according to the FEC: "prohibits corporations from making contributions or expenditures in connection with Federal elections." They're footing the bill for the ads now.

Update II: It gets even better. In an update to his story, Stoller has a link to the Times own bio for Darcy, which states, very clearly:

Education: Harvard University, B.A. in computer science with a special field of economics, 1996.

AK-Sen: US v. Stevens went to jury today. A decision is expected tomorrow. The New York Times rounds up the trial:

As the fate of Sen. Ted Stevens is placed in the hands of a jury today, the government's once-powerful corruption case against the long-serving Republican suddenly looks too close to call.

Because of a finding of prosecutorial misconduct by U.S. District Judge Emmet G. Sullivan, one of the signature allegations in the indictment -- that Stevens got a sweetheart car deal from an Alaskan oil tycoon -- will not be considered by the jury.

Too close to call, like the race itself. If Stevens is acquitted, he will likely win reelection, although that is not guaranteed. If convicted, he will lose.

KY-Sen: With the race apparently tied, the DSCC has a stinging new ad against Mitch McConnell:

NH-Sen: The New York Times thinks John Sununu is in deep trouble:

If there was a swing state in America where a ticket headed by Mr. McCain was supposed to have long coattails it was New Hampshire, where he defied the odds to win presidential primaries in 2000 and 2008. But with Mr. McCain skidding in the polls amid a rising tide of Democrats here, Mr. Sununu, who is battling to keep his job in one of this year’s most bitterly contested Senate races, is hardly hitching a ride to easy re-election.

Instead, Mr. Sununu finds himself in a jam, forced to engage in raw politicking to help prop up the Republican ticket and energize the party’s apathetic base. But even as he is scheduled to appear at a rally with Mr. McCain on Wednesday in Goffstown, he also desperately needs to appeal to independents and Democrats at a time when persuading supporters of Mr. Obama to split the ticket may be his only hope of winning his own race.

Mr. Sununu is in a grueling rematch against former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen in a state that is emblematic of a national climate in which Republicans are in danger of ceding Democrats a filibuster-proof Senate majority for the first time in 30 years.

ID-Sen: Man, Republican Jim Risch is a horrible person.

At a senior American government class at Capital High School on Oct. 15, he paced across the front of the classroom. He spoke rapidly and energetically, peppered the 17- and 18-year-olds with questions and didn't always wait for their answers. He sometimes complimented them, once saying, "We weren't nearly as sophisticated as you kids are," but most of the time he tried to connect with the kids by giving them a hard time.

"Could you explain to me the tax shift?" asked the first boy in the class to raise his hand during the question and answer session.

"Yoooou're a Democrat," Risch retorted.

"No he's not," a girl in the back piped up.

"Only Democrats use that phrase, 'tax shift,'" Risch replied. "By the way, don't be afraid to ask questions of me," he said to the other students in the class. "They're not stupid questions like this one over here."

Wow. Calling high school kids stupid is Risch's idea of good campaigning? What a dick.

CA-50: Elections can't be won without the support of independents. In the San Diego area, even in once solidly conservative district, independents appear to be swinging dramatically to the Democratic Party.

Democratic candidate Nick Leibham, in California's 50th district, currently trails Republican incumbent Brian Bilbray by just two points in his internals, 44% to 42%. Instructively, though, he leads among independents. From a campaign polling memo:

One important point about registration trends is that the number of voters who register as independents (so-called "decline to states") is on the rise.  In our recent poll, Leibham leads by a wide margin with these voters (48% to 32%) and Obama leads by an even wider margin (63% to 29%).  

That bodes well for an Obama landslide in California, which ought to be nice for his popular-vote margin. It also means that Leibham has an excellent shot at unseating Bilbray, an immigration hard-liner. The polling memo also indicates that despite the district's old R+4 lean, Democrats lead in a generic Congressional ballot by two points, a 14-point swing from 2006, and Bilbray's favorables have dropped 14 points into negative territory.

IN-03: Hey, Mark Souder is a full-fledged Bachmann apologist!

At a recent GOP press conference, our man Mark fielded a question about his fellow Midwestern Republican's controversial appearance on Hardball. Here's what Souder had to say about Madame Bachmann...(emphasis added):

SOUDER: I read the whole interview. Chris Matthews tried to trick her into that question, over and over for the entire interview. Unfortunately, her last comment, she fell for the trap. No, we shouldn’t have an investigation into Congress. They are elected by the people of the United States. I have full faith and confidence. Now, I think some of them, for example, Sen. Obama, should be careful who he pals around with.

Aw, Tweety, that big meanie! If he hadn't spent so much time trying to figure out just why Bachmann would call her fellow Americans anti-American, and what in God's name she could possibly mean by that...well, none 'a this woulda ever happened!

Souder lives and works in one of the nation's reddest districts, the Fighting Third of Indiana, where he's opposed by Democrat Michael Montagano. While Bush fired 68% there in 2004, Marky Mark has struggled to put up numbers like that. He edged Democrat Tom Hayhurst with 54% in 2006, and a recent Democratic internal gave him just 44%, and a five-point lead, against Montagano.

If he loses, perhaps he'll blame Chris Matthews for tricking the voters.

MN-06: Speaking of Bachmann, the NRCC is washing their hands of the Dragon Lady:

Five days after Rep. Michele Bachmann went on a McCarthy-esque rant suggesting Barack Obama was unpatriotic and urging the major newspapers of the country to investigate anti-American sentiment in Congress, the national Republican political parties are running for cover.

Two sources aware of ad buys in Minnesota say that the National Republican Congressional Committee is pulling its media purchases from Bachmann's race. If true, it is a remarkable fall for a congresswoman who, until recently, seemed relatively safe in her predominantly conservative district. The race had become closer in recent days -- the NRCC had transferred funds from Rep. Erik Paulsen (MN-03) to Bachmann a little over a week ago.

In the days following her appearance on Hardball, however, Bachmann has watched as her challenger, El Tinklenberg raised more than a million dollars off her incendiary remarks. That surge in fundraising put Bachmann's re-election in a far less certain position. Bachmann tried to stem the bleeding by telling the press she was sorry for her remarks. But with the national party now apparently pulling the plug, the situation has gone from bad to worse.

Rep. Bachmann is in very, very large trouble.

CO-04: And the hits just keep coming...this one happens to be especially sweet.

The Red Army is pulling out of Colorado's Fourth District, too...essentially leaving for dead one of their own, and a longtime Democratic target (and netroots target), the one and only Rep. Marilyn Musgrave.

Multiple sources with knowledge of GOP spending decisions tell The Scorecard the National Republican Congressional Committee has pulled ad money from Colorado's Fourth Congressional District, where Rep. Marilyn Musgrave faces a difficult race for a fourth term.

The NRCC has already invested just over $800,000 on Musgrave's behalf, including a $376,000 media buy this week, according to FEC reports filed Monday. Those ads will continue to run, leaving Musgrave without GOP backing for the final week before Election Day.

The DCCC has spent about $775,000 on behalf of ex-congressional aide Betsy Markey, and outside groups like Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund and EMILY's List have run a whopping $1.15 million in ads of their own slamming Musgrave.

Markey has led in most public polling, so the NRCC abandoning Musgrave (who once swore that gay marriage was the greatest threat to our nation) is rather terrible for her chances at reelection.

She won't be missed.

Drip, drip, drip. In the ongoing stream of good news for Democrats, we're that much closer to gaining another wingnut's seat. The NRCC is abandoning Marilyn Musgrave.

In a surprise move, National Republican Congressional Committee canceled its TV advertising buy in the 4th Congressional District for the last week of the election on Wednesday in what some experts say is clear sign Republican incumbent Rep. Marilyn Musgrave’s re-election bid for a fourth term is at risk. It could also mean that Musgrave’s challenger Betsy Markey could become the first Democrat elected to the 4th CD in decades.

The NRCC has focused on the 4th in recent weeks by dumping more than $700,000 into the race including an additional $400,000 in TV airtime to be used in the final week of the campaign — money the NRCC pulled out today by sending letters to Denver TV stations canceling the ad buy. Both parties have viewed the 4th CD as a clear toss-up throughout the election cycle....

Polling so far hasn’t been good for Musgrave this year. A Roll Call poll by SurveyUSA in August put Markey ahead by 7 percentage points and a more recent poll by EMILY’s List, a Markey supporter, put Markey up by 9 points. The EMILY’s List poll is somewhat skewed being it included a smaller percentage of registered Republicans than the 4th’s voter demographics. In addition, Markey’s campaign also released internal polling in June that showed her up over Musgrave by 4 percentage points. Musgrave’s campaign has not released any polling in recent months and no outside groups gauging the race have shown Musgrave in the lead.

Polling must have gotten a lot worse recently, if the Republicans are abandoning this one, too. Colorado is looking more and more likely to be deep blue come November 4.

McCain's attention seems to be wandering:

Update (5:40PM): Here's a link to the full interview broadcast on tonight's NBC Nightly News broadcast. Note how McCain doesn't even seem to believe himself when he says that he's got Obama and Biden right here he wants them.

The internal rumblings of the House GOP, it seems, reveal a caucus even more pessimistic about Republican chances this fall than we are optimistic about Democratic chances.

While we hope and expect to gain in excess of 20 seats in the House, the GOP is looking at even bigger numbers:

Voter displeasure with the war and economy, coupled with Sen. Barack Obama's popularity, has the House GOP running for cover. Even though polls have shown that Americans don't like congressional Democrats any more, a new internal GOP tally of House races suggests a Democratic route that could keep the Republicans in the minority for decades. A document provided to Washington Whispers from a House GOP official shows that they could lose a net 34 seats. That means the Democrats would have a 270-165 advantage in the 111th Congress. In the Senate, Republicans expect to lose also but to keep up to 44 seats, ensuring their ability to stage a filibuster.

34 seats! Is this simply a Republican trick, raising expectations for Democratic gains?

It doesn't seem like it, considering they expect to "keep up to 44 seats" in the Senate. That would be a net loss of five seats, a scenario which frankly would be rather optimistic for Republicans.

The document provided to Whispers is no gag: It comes from one of the key House GOP vote counters. The source called it a "death list." The tally shows several different ratings of 66 House Republicans in difficult races or open seats held by retiring Republicans. "Rating 1" finds 10 Republicans "likely gone."

Here are a few of the seats the GOP has already written off as gone:

AK-AL Young
AZ-01 Renzi (open)
FL-24 Feeney
IL-11 Weller (open)
MI-07 Walberg
NV-03 Porter
NC-08 Hayes
NY-13 Fossella (open)
NY-25 Walsh (open)
VA-11 Davis (open)

It is especially nice to see Tom Feeney and Robin Hayes on the death list, after their shameful conduct this week, and it gets even better:

Under "Rating 2," nine Republican seats are listed as "leaning Democratic." Under "Rating 3," some 22 GOP seats are listed as "true toss-up." The fourth rating, "lean Republican," finds 15 seats in the category that comes with this warning: "If there's a wave, some could be in trouble." The last "likely Republican" rating finds another 11. Only three Democratic districts are seen as "hopeful" GOP pickups. They are Florida 16, Pennsylvania 11, and Texas 22. Another 10 Democratic seats are listed as "possible" pickups.

So the Republicans list 58 seats as competitive on their side, next to 13 on ours. Yeowch.

Without getting ahead of ourselves, I don't think our side is the only one acknowledging the possibility of a "wave election".

With his multiple wives and cross-dressing ways, Rudy Giuliani was never going to make it onto the Republican ticket, but that doesn't mean that Mr. "a noun, a verb, and 9/11" isn't willing to get down in the mud with John McCain and Sarah Palin. Here's a robocall that is running in Maine, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Ohio, and Colorado, starring Rudy Giuliani in the McCain campaign's latest smear routine:

Hi, this is Rudy Giuliani, and I'm calling for John McCain and the Republican National Committee because you need to know that Barack Obama opposes mandatory prison sentences for sex offenders, drug dealers, and murderers.

It's true, I read Obama's words myself. And recently, Congressional liberals introduced a bill to eliminate mandatory prison sentences for violent criminals -- trying to give liberal judges the power to decide whether criminals are sent to jail or set free. With priorities like these, we just can't trust the inexperience and judgment of Barack Obama and his liberal allies. This call was paid for by the Republican National Committee and McCain-Palin 2008 at 866 558 5591.

Really, Rudy? You read them yourself? Then how did you miss this little detail from Obama's own words?

Chief Justice Rehnquist observed that "one of the best arguments against any more mandatory minimums, and perhaps against some of those that we already have, is that they frustrate the careful calibration of sentences." Justice Kennedy stated that he "can accept neither the necessity nor the wisdom of federal mandatory minimum sentences." Justice Breyer, one of the architects of the Sentencing Guidelines, noted that "[m]andatory minimum statutes are fundamentally inconsistent with Congress' simultaneous effort to create a fair, honest, and rational sentencing system through the use of Sentencing Guidelines." Politicians of both parties have also come out against mandatory minimums. Barack Obama and Joe Biden will immediately review these sentences to see where we can be smarter on crime and reduce the ineffective warehousing of nonviolent drug offenders.

So, drop the word "minimum," throw in the word "liberal" a few times for good measure, pretend that Obama wants murderers roaming the streets, and you've got the latest installment of the McCain's desperate attempt to avoid the issues and continue with his campaign of lies and smears.

Follow all of the McCain/Palin robocalls and mailers at TPM's Map of GOP sleaze.

Some candidates will just never say die.

A noun, a verb and 2012.

This thread is declared wide open.

(In the final days of an election, there is so much information from so many races, it's difficult to stay on top of every story and understand the subtle dynamics often at play on the ground. Thankfully, we have an expansive 50-state blogosphere to match our 50-state strategy. Over the last two weeks of the campaign, we've asked leaders of the state blogospheres to provide insight into late developments and share the stories of their states in a series we're calling "Listening to the Locals." What follows here is the first installment in the series. SusanG)

Imagine, New York, California, Illinois, Pennsylvania and Texas all in the Democratic column.  That would mean every election cycle, Democrats would start with 162 electoral college votes.  

Texans are on our way to making that a reality.

Together we have started the journey towards a Democratic Texas by bringing our blogging community together and forming the TexBlog PAC.  In essence, we are putting our money were our mouse is with the singular goal of wining back the Texas House.

The reasons are simple.   Texas is set to gain 3 to 4 congressional seats in the next census.  We have a Legislative Redistricting Board (LRB) that helps determine what our legislative districts look like and right now, all 5 seats are controlled by Republicans.  We are set to change that this cycle though.

The Speaker of the Texas House is one of five elected officials on the LRB, and in 2008 is the only one technically up for re-election.  See, the Speaker of the House is selected by the 150 state representatives at the beginning of every legislative session and Democrats are only 5 seats away from winning back the majority in the Texas House.

What once was an 88-62 Republican majority after Tom DeLay's mid-decade redistricting, is now just a slim 79-71 Republican controlled chamber. Winning a majority with a Democratic speaker, not only means we throw a wrench into further Republican redistricting, it means Democratic committee chairs on up to 40 committees.

How did the progressive blogosphere respond in Texas?  In forming the TexBlog PAC, we have raised money and given at least five $5,000 checks to incredible Democrats throughout Texas.  We have donated our time, money, and energy to electing a Democratic majority in the Texas House by endorsing Diana Maldonado, Chris Turner, Joe Moody, Sherrie Matula, and Robert Miklos.

These five candidates will soon represent Round Rock (just north of Austin), Fort Worth, El Paso, Houston, and Mesquite (just north of Dallas). And each of them has an excellent chance of winning as we have explained in our weekly Burnt Orange Political Report.

We could rant and rave about how great each person is, but that does a disservice to the nearly half dozen amazing candidates we didn’t have the money to endorse.  It is unfair to the Texas Supreme Court candidates and State Senate candidates that fell out of our state mission.  It does a disservice to our incredible U.S. Senate nominee Rick Noriega who is closing the gap according to the polls and would be the upset of the cycle.

We are Turning Texas Blue.  We are doing it from the bottom up.  We are running more and better Democrats from County Commissioners to Texas Supreme Court members.  

Our focus has been rebuilding our bench and supporting our state house candidates with big checks early on so the Democratic establishment pays attention to us. We have succeeded.  With our endorsement, Diana Maldonado currently has a 14:1 cash on hand advantage against opponent.  Sherrie Matula has a 2:1 advantage.  Chris Tunrer raised almost double what his Republican opponent raised in the last fundraising period.  Joe Moody has the fund he needs to put together a complete field program in El Paso.

Our money is making a difference. Candidates we have endorsed have been given a second look and become targeted races. Texas bloggers are volunteering their time and running some of these campaigns and coordinated efforts on the ground.  The online community has moved off line and in doing so, we're hoping to move Texas into the Democratic column for Barack Obama's 2012 re-election.

Read: Burnt Orange Report
Give: TexBlog PAC ActBlue Page

Chris Matthews tries to extract a coherent explanation of Sarah Palin's comment that the vice president of the United States is "in charge of the United States Senate" from McCain aide Nancy Pfotenhauer. Over an eight-minute stretch, she's totally unable to defend Palin's ill-informed claim:

There's a discussion of Pfotenhauer's pfail going on in Stiffa's diary on the recommended list.

Last week, Tom Schaller writing at Salon speculated on getting to 60 in the Senate. Here's his proposal:

We know Virginia's Mark Warner and the Udall cousins in New Mexico and Colorado look pretty solid. Let's speculate further that Jean Shaheen holds off John Sununu in New Hampshire, Jeff Merkley defeats Gordon Smith in Oregon, Alaska's scandal-plagued Ted Stevens cannot save himself from Mark Begich, and Al Franken can finish his late-campaign run against Minnesota's Norm Coleman. And then, riding Barack Obama's coattails, Kay Hagan upends Liddy Dole in North Carolina.

That would mean eight new Democratic senators, giving Harry Reid 59 seats. (Including that Connecticut guy whose name we dare not speak, of course.) Where might a 60th, filibuster-proof senator come from?

How about Nebraska?

After he beat Republican Mike Johanns, the former Bush agriculture secretary, in a cow-milking contest last August, I blogged about the Democratic candidate, Nebraska Rep. Scott Kleeb. All good fun, but the actual Senate contest itself was one nobody outside the Kleeb campaign had on his or her competitive-race radar.

Schaller goes on to say that the Johanns scandal has focused just a little more national attention on the race. Will that national attention help Kleeb raise his profile enough in the eastern, more populous and Democratic part of the state enough to carry him over? The thing is, given the chance, Kleeb makes a very compelling case.

That's best shown in this exchange he had at an Omaha Kiwanis meeting. It was not, to say the least, a friendly crowd for a Democrat. In the midst of the financial crisis, this group wanted to talk about immigration and abortion. Scott was the best I've seen him in responding to a man in the audience who just didn't want to give up on talking about abortion. His exasperation and frustration led to this:

...We get so fixated on having an argument, and defining each other, as opposed to what we actually want to do. What do we want to do? All of us, every single one of us in this country wants to get to zero. And yet we become so fixated on the same discussions we've had for thirty years. Discussions on energy that give us higher prices, discussions on the economy which means that we ship more jobs overseas, discussions on abortion which means the number of abortions goes up, rather than down. Discussions on health care which means fewer people actually get insured.

We don't fix anything in this country anymore. On abortion, on health care, on energy, on the economy, on the environment--whatever the issue is we don't fix things anymore. And it's because we focus on labels and we focus on argument. As opposed to on solutions. The reason why we don't have trust in our political leadership is because they have pointed the finger and have blamed and every Sunday morning we see them in 30 second sound bites saying "It's not my fault we have a financial crisis--it's their fault." And the other person says "It's not my fault we have a financial crisis--it's their fault." Well it's all their faults and it's our fault for perpetuating the same conversations that we've had.

If we want to get past this moment right now then we have got to recognize that we can do again what my granddad believed so deeply in. And we can work together despite whatever differences we might have for a shared and common goal. That's what this moment is. These moments don't come around very often and we have to take advantage of them.

He won a small part of that crowd over in this exchange as you can hear by the smattering of applause that breaks out, and if he could do that on the hot-button issue of abortion in this crowd, he's got a message that will work in Nebraska.

On the Web:
Scott Kleeb for US Senate
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On FOX News Channel, they are truly hilarious in their spin on the Palin wardrobe shopping spree, initially spinning that the shopping budget is the reason why she looks so good, and then quickly sputtering themselves into a strange rant on sexism and how TV personalities always get free clothes anyway.

As I said earlier, unless the McCain campaign figures out how to bury this story, nine times out of ten this will be the moment when not just reporters but also Republicans start talking about the McCain-Palin campaign in the past tense.

SurveyUSA for Roll Call. 10/17-19. Likely voters. MoE 4.9%. (9/22-23 numbers)

This poll matches the internal polling of Democrat Walt Minnick's campaign, which also shows him leading by six points.

With a PVI of R+19, ID-01 is more solidly Republican than any district held by a Democrat, anywhere in the nation. The only district redder than ID-01 which is currently in play is WY-AL, a race considered a tossup at best despite the formidable campaigning skills of Democrat Gary Trauner. Idaho is an overwhelmingly conservative state, at the federal level; it hasn't given its electoral votes to a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson in 1964, and George Bush defeated John Kerry by a whopping 39 points in the state.

In a normal environment, there's no way this race would be in play.

This is an abnormally strong year for Democrats, however, and the political tide may well help carry Minnick over the edge. He has the good fortune, as well, of having the truly preposterous Rep. Bill Sali as his opponent.

Sali is the latest in a long line of exceptionally crazy or otherwise compromised Idaho conservatives, coming on the heels of Steve Symms, George Hansen and Helen Chenoweth. He embarrassed the state in the Legislature, and he has continued to do so in Congress.

Here are a few choice references to our man Sali, compiled by Daily Kos and Swing State Project's DavidNYC:

"That idiot is just an absolute idiot" - Republican Idaho House Speaker Bruce Newcomb

"I would not and do not and cannot endorse a liar for Congress" - Republican Canyon County Commissioner Robert Vasquez

(to Sali) "If you want to debate this, I'll put the House at ease and and we can go back into my office and I'll throw you out the window." - U.S. Rep. Mike Simpson, R-Idaho, as a member of the Idaho House

"The third floor wasn't high enough. You should have taken him up to the fourth floor." - Simpson's fellow Idaho House members, in response to the above quote

"Bruce has been a great speaker of the House," Otter said. "And as he told me, he learned everything that he knows from Mike Simpson. And that is why every time he has a bad day, he goes and beats the hell out of Bill Sali." - Idaho's Republican Governor Butch Otter, in reference to Speaker Newcomb

"the perfect fuckup" - DavidNYC

With the exception of the last quote, all of those come from Idaho Republicans.

No wonder Walt Minnick is leading.

So what kind of an attitude is Sali taking towards his reelection campaign, anyway, given that Minnick's challenge is so serious?

KTVB reporter Ysabel Bilbao was interviewing Walt Minnick's campaign director John Foster Wednesday afternoon.  During the interview, someone loudly yelled and was laughing during the interview at the Grove plaza.

Bilbao and Foster initially ignored the intrusion, but quickly noticed the source of the heckling -- Sali and members of his staff.

...

Foster said he saw Sali making faces at him and holding up "bunny ears."

Walt Minnick, though he may not be a movement progressive, is a serious, intelligent and thoughtful Democrat. He'd be a fine Representative for Idaho's First District. But if he wins, I'll almost be a little dismayed to lose such a fine example of Republican asshattery at its very lowest ebb as Congressman Bill Sali.

A victory here and in Wyoming, however, would be a fantastic exclamation point to the dramatic Democratic surge of the past two years. And it would demonstrate once and for all, to the Zell Millers of the world, that the only "national party" in this day and age is the Democratic Party.