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Tuesday, February 9, 2010 1:53 PM EST

The playoff push: 90+ points or bust

James Mirtle

UPDATED after Monday's games

What follows below is a projection I've been doing for a few years; a look at the record teams likely need to close the season in order to make the playoffs. There's a little bit of guesswork involved -- but it generally works out quite close to what's listed here.

(What's unique about this season is that the playoff teams in the West are on pace for far more points than those in the East, which is why I've set the projected playoff mark at 94 in one conference and only 87 in the other. As I've written earlier this year, Western Conference teams have really beaten up on the East this year.)

I'll keep this updated throughout the rest of the regular season, so check back as we go.

Western Conference (94 points)

1. San Jose - 3-19-1
2. Chicago - 6-17-1
3. Phoenix - 8-13-1
4. Los Angeles - 9-13-1
5. Vancouver - 11-14-0
6. Colorado - 11-13-0
7. Nashville - 14-11-0
8. Calgary - 13-9-1
9. Detroit - 15-9-0
10. Dallas - 15-8-1
11. Minnesota - 16-8-0
12. Anaheim - 15-7-1
13. St. Louis - 17-5-1
14. Columbus - 18-3-1
15. Edmonton - eliminated (max: 90 pts)

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Monday, February 8, 2010 2:27 PM EST

Lecavalier still hangs over Gainey

Eric Duhatschek

When the Montreal Canadiens make the transition from Bob Gainey to Pierre Gauthier later today – presumably on an interim basis to start – I suspect the one question that everybody wants answered is one that won’t be; and that is, what was the plan that Gainey actually had in mind for the 2009-10 season and not the one that was actually put in place, which involved throwing a lot of money at Scott Gomez, Brian Gionta and Mike Cammalleri. I suspect two things: One, that it wasn’t – and that the moves that he put in place were a fallback plan after his pursuit of Vincent Lecavalier fell short; and two, we won’t hear the definitive answer in a public forum, even if it would a lot of last year's machinations into their proper perspective.

But like a lot of Habs watchers, you had to think that Gainey knew the value of putting a French-Canadian superstar such as Lecavalier in a Montreal sweater, and not just because of his heritage either. Lecavalier would have been the centre with size that Montreal has lacked all these years; and a quick look at NHL stats this morning shows you that, his slow start notwithstanding, Lecavalier has been an excellent worker for the Lightning this season, something that’s been doubly challenging since the team’s two other elite forwards, Martin St. Louis and Steven Stamkos, usually play on a different line.

Lecavalier is currently 20th overall, with 55 points in 57 games, one spot behind the Ducks’ Ryan Getzlaf and ahead of the Blue Jackets’ Rick Nash, the Pucks’ Corey Perry and the Flames’ Jarome Iginla. Not bad production and if he were producing like that on the same Canadiens’ team as Tomas Plekanec, then Montreal’s fortunes might have been greatly enhanced this year.

As it is, the Canadiens are still hanging tough in the playoff race, despite losing their top defenceman Andrei Markov for most of the first half and losing their top forward, Cammalleri, at least through the Olympic break. Not many teams would be able to survive a so-so season from their de facto No. 1 goaltender, Carey Price, but Montreal has done so because Jaroslav Halak has picked up the slack. Halak was the 271st player chosen in the 2003 NHL entry draft. Gainey was hired by the Canadiens in early June of that year; officially, he took over control of the team on July 1. That 2003 draft, considered one of the finest in NHL history, provided great opportunity for a number of teams, including the Flyers (Mike Richards, Jeff Carter) and the Ducks (Getzlaf and Perry). Montreal took Andrei Kostitsyn 10th overall that year; Carter, a 46-goal scorer last year, was the next player chosen.

In three of Gainey’s five full seasons at the controls, the Canadiens posted 93 points. Their one real shining glory came in 2007-08 when they unexpectedly won the Northeast Division with 104 points but faltered in the second round against Philadelphia. From there, it’s been – not all downhill exactly, but a whole lot of treading water. Still, sport at any level is often as much about what could have happened as opposed to what did. On the day that Gainey stepped away from the team where he starred for all those years as a player, you wonder if his ability to pull the trigger on a Lecavalier deal might have changed everything – for him and for the team.

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Monday, February 8, 2010 4:36 PM EST

Wallin pumped to be a Shark

James Mirtle

The newest member of the powerhouse San Jose Sharks, Niclas Wallin, looked a little fatigued but had some good things to say today at the Air Canada Centre about his new team.

Wallin was dealt from the 28th-place Carolina Hurricanes along with a fifth-round pick in exchange for a second-rounder last night after a few days of wondering if the much-rumoured deal would get done.

He will skate in his first game as a Shark tonight against the Leafs alongside new D partner Dan Boyle.

“I’m so excited, I don’t have words for it,” Wallin said. “It’s been a long couple days. I was just reading media and was wondering, is it going to happen, is it not. When you’re not used to this, when you’ve been with one team, for a long time, I didn’t really know what was going on.

“They finally got the deal done, well, I don’t even know what day it is today. A couple days ago. I’m really excited. It’s a great chance to come to a winning team and a team that has every tool to win a championship.

“That’s the bottom line, that’s what you play hockey for, you want to win … I’m the happiest man in the world right now.”

Wallin joins Doug Murray as another Swedish fellow on the Sharks back end, and because neither have played with a countryman on an NHL team in a while, they’ve been spending some quality time together.

“I love to watch him play,” Wallin said of Murray. “He worked hard, it’s been a long road for him, but he definitely deserves to play the minutes he does. A good guy.”

Wallin is a solid defensive defenceman who plays regularly on the penalty kill, and his presence will mean less time for one of the Sharks youngsters. He comes with a pretty reasonable contract, too, at $1.75-million over this season and will be an unrestricted free agent this summer.

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Sunday, February 7, 2010 11:55 PM EST

Kessel quiet on stick swap

James Mirtle

After going through a recent skid in which he had only two goals and 10 points in 20 games, Leafs sniper Phil Kessel opted for a change in the stick department – and it appears to be working.

Kessel went from a Bauer X:60 stick to one made by Easton, believed to be an S19, for the game Jan. 29 against the Devils, and has scored five goals and eight points in his past four games.

Kessel, however, generally keeps his stick well taped up and won't say anything about the change.

“I told someone yesterday, I’m not going to talk about it,” he said at practice last week before walking away.

Never one for much conversation, Kessel's silence on this front likely stems from the fact he is, like many NHL stars, one of Bauer's poster boys, part of ad campaigns and YouTube videos like this one on how he tapes his sticks.

Using an Easton stick while endorsed by another company, even if the X:60 wasn't working for him, is considered a bit of a no-no for obvious reasons.

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Thursday, February 4, 2010 8:04 PM EST

Cracking on the Commish

Matthew Sekeres

If you loathe NHL commissioner Gary Bettman – and many Canadian hockey fans do – than you’ll love this. And even if you love Bettman, you’ll appreciate the humour.

The premise is that Bettman’s inbox has been hacked, and e-mails from NBC sports honcho Dick Ebersol, Vancouver Canucks GM Mike Gillis, and Hollywood starlet Elisha Cuthbert (girlfriend of Leafs defenceman Dion Phaneuf) are exposed to the world.

An example…

Sender: NY Maid Service

Subject line: Your office rug

Message: You know, it’s really hard to clean this thing with Stéphane Auger swept under it.

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Thursday, February 4, 2010 5:31 PM EST

Financial tidbits

David Shoalts

A morning spent poking around in the financial part of the NHL yielded a few tidbits about stories that have the blogosphere and Twitter worlds humming.

First, a couple of things reported by The Hockey News about the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Dallas Stars resulted in strong denials from those close to both situations.

Someone close to Lightning co-owner Oren Koules insisted that Boston money manager Jeffrey Vinik did not demand a $30-million (all currency U.S.) discount on the purchase of the Lightning to account for Vinnie Lecavalier’s contract. Lecavalier’s deal has 11 years left to run for a total of $85-million with a cap hit in each year of $7.73-million.

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Wednesday, February 3, 2010 10:42 PM EST

Caps' incredible offence way ahead of the pack

James Mirtle

It's fair the say the Capitals are on a bit of a roll.

Eleven wins in their past 11 games. A 14-2-0 record so far in 2010. And, by a big, big margin, the most goals scored in the league this season, an average of 3.82 per game that is right out of the high-flying '80s.

What's even more incredible is just how many more goals Washington is scoring than the teams around them. In an era where we generally see league scoring hover between 5.50 and 5.70 goals per game, games involving the Capitals average nearly 6.50 – with most of that the result of how many goals Ovechkin and Co. are scoring every night.

By comparison, the top scoring team last season (Detroit) had only 3.52 goals per game. No team has finished a season scoring above 3.80 goals per game in the past decade.

If we compare the top scoring teams from the Original Six era on, using the league average goal per game figure from those seasons as a guide, this year's Capitals team is the sixth most prolific scoring team. Washington scores at a rate 38.4 per cent above the league average:

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Wednesday, February 3, 2010 5:22 PM EST

Filatov jumps to mind

Matthew Sekeres

The Columbus Blue Jackets fired head coach Ken Hitchcock on Wednesday, and the first person that jumped to mind was not interim replacement Claude Noel, but rather super prospect Nikita Filatov.

The Russian sniper was named the best prospect in the world by The Hockey News last spring, yet he bolted Ohio for the KHL earlier this season after clashing with Hitchcock. An inflexible taskmaster, Hitchcock was using Filatov in a bottom-six role alongside no-hands enforcers, and wasn’t prepared to increase the teenager’s ice time until his defensive awareness improved.

At the world junior championship in Saskatchewan last month, Filatov represented Russia and made it clear – without saying so directly – that he had no interest in playing for Hitchcock ever again. That week, I spoke with Blue Jackets GM Scott Howson and again it was clear that, ultimately, he was going to have to decide between his coach and his best prospect.

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Monday, February 1, 2010 12:21 AM EST

Leafs low on forwards, cap space

James Mirtle

On a day when the Maple Leafs shipped out six players and brought in three new bodies, there’s an awful lot to digest. Let’s start with the basic numbers, beginning with the skaters:

Those 57 goals on the way out represent 39 per cent of the Leafs’ goal production this season, and it’s highly likely Toronto struggles to score down the stretch as a result. The team’s situation at forward will have to be addressed in the off-season, something I’ll get to in a minute.

(Not represented above is the prospect Brian Burke acquired from the Flames, Keith Aulie, who is a fairly well-regarded defensive defenceman in the AHL right now.)

The most incredible thing about those stats above are the ones from the two blueliners trading teams:

Now, that’s not to say White’s a better player than Phaneuf – and certainly not to say he has more potential – but the fact is that he’s been one of the best Leafs all season and remains underrated around the league. He’s due for a big pay raise but won't come near to the contract Phaneuf has and has been a far better bargain this year.

Whether or not this deal pays off depends on Phaneuf living up to his contract, and he’s got a ways to go. A long ways, in my mind.

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Sunday, January 31, 2010 3:20 PM EST

The cap hit

James Mirtle

More than simply looking at the players changing teams today in the two big trades Toronto made, the cap implications play a role, too. First, here's a look at the difference in salary in the Ducks-Leafs deal:

And here are the cap ramifications from the seven-player deal Brian Burke made with the Flames. Keep in mind that Calgary will free up additional cap space next year given Matt Stajan and Jamal Mayers are going to be unrestricted free agents:

* = Will play in AHL and not count against salary cap

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