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A temporary combination of circumstances does not amount to a compelling argument for the existence of a residential real-estate bubble that is due to burst, or for a policy change in mortgage-insurance standards.

At present, very low interest rates and the current Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. standards are no doubt helping residential real-estate prices to rise. But interest rates are likely to move upward to more normal levels within the next year. The Bank of Canada has come close to committing itself to maintaining its own overnight rate at the minimal 0.25 per cent until the end of June. But this is an explicitly countercyclical policy. Mark Carney, the bank's Governor, has said several times that the public-policy stimulus has been quite effective, and that it is increasingly the private sector's turn to provide most of the new growth. Last week in Winnipeg, Mr. Carney said, "The thaw is coming." With the thaw, less artificial stimulus will be needed.

Current interest rates are unlikely to last long, even if they don't rise right away in July.

Standards for mortgages insured by CMHC were loosened in 2006, both by the lengthening of amortization periods and by openness to the financing of home purchases with no down payments. In July 2008, the Department of Finance reversed this trend, soon before the international financial crisis was about to strike with full force, bringing with it a residential real-estate crash, in which comparatively few transactions took place for some months.

That action by the federal government was overdue, and though mortgage-insurance rules are still looser than they were for most of the past few decades, the recovery of home prices to 2008 levels is not in itself unhealthy. The general economic recovery is still delicate enough that a policy-induced decline in residential real-estate prices could be quite demoralizing. Quite a large portion of the public is conscious of and sensitive to - this aspect of the economy.

Average prices have risen quite sharply over a recent 12-month period, but averages of all sorts can be misleading, disguising bulges at one end or the other of a full range of data. There is reason to believe that much of the rise is indeed at the high end, considering the comparison between average prices and the more sophisticated measure in the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index, which shows a change of only 2.60 per cent, year over year, as of November - unless some unknown madness has broken loose since then.

The 2008 real-estate crash in Canada cannot be blamed on any homegrown Canadian subprime-mortgage folly. Both lenders and public authorities should continue to be watchful, but the case for a mortgage-insurance policy change is unproven.