Solid, not a turnaround

From Friday's Globe and Mail

At mid-term, Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach is in trouble. The recession, a growing deficit and uncertainty around the province's economic future have thrown his leadership, and the very future of the Progressive Conservative party, into question. Yesterday's throne speech needed to deliver a compelling vision of his government's direction, but the effort, while laudable, came up short.

Throne speeches typically have a little bit for everyone, while charting an overall direction for the government; on that score, this speech succeeded. Mr. Stelmach's agenda is activist: a new Alberta Health Act in the fall, and a five-year funding plan for the provincial health care service; a gang-reduction strategy, and more child-care and affordable-housing spaces; a fight against the mountain pine beetle, and a "new vision of education." Economic growth was the main theme, and the government touted a new Alberta Competitiveness Act.

Mr. Stelmach faces political challenges that demand not a laundry list, but specific responses to pressing problems. He faces a $4.3-billion deficit, but the throne speech lacked any direction on how to return the province's finances to balance in three years as promised. Fifty per cent of the province's GDP comes from its volatile energy sector. Some direction to investors considering the oil patch as a place to plant billions in capital, and to an international community concerned about the emissions from that oil patch, is needed; but the government has repeatedly delayed its oil and gas competitiveness review, and offered no strong new message on environmental protection.

The speech's failure to address these challenges means the political pressure will not abate. The threat from the upstart Wildrose Alliance, which promises a return to the conservatism it says the Alberta Tories have strayed from, is real, as is the possibility of party realignment. Other PC supporters could turn to parties on the left if Mr. Stelmach tacks too far to the right to head off Wildrose.

Preston Manning, the former Reform Party leader, is convening a conference this weekend on Alberta's future, where new ideas around marrying conservatism, sustainable development and democratic accountability will come to the fore.

A growing number of Albertans are restless for change. Perhaps next week's budget will set a governing vision for Alberta; the throne speech, unfortunately, did not deliver.

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