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Wednesday, February 10, 2010 2:33 PM EST
This campaign ends here
So that campaign ended there.
Adam Giambrone looked to me like a precociously able politician who had the ability to do, in the City of Toronto, what Bernard Lord did in New Brunswick. He had the ability to be new and competent at the same time; to be an insider who represented change at the same time; to be fresh and young while also reassuring and steady. You'd think, with a respectable track record as city councillor and having tackled one of the toughest jobs in Toronto (running its underfunded and much-abused public transit system) that Mr. Giambrone would have been up to the challenge.
And I think the day will come when he will be.
But as this morning's sad press conference demonstrated, not for awhile. Mr. Giambrone was unable to deliver his resignation speech, just as he was unable to take crisp, clear responsibility for his record as TTC chair; to respond coherently to prurient enquiries into his personal life; or to avoid the temptation to try to game his answers when he did decide to reply.
Mr. Giambrone's first mayoralty campaign, soon to be a footnote in political history, teaches many lessons.
The first lesson it teaches -- one learned by several candidates in the last federal election -- is that there is no private space in politics in the 21st century. And in particular, that the new toys children and teenagers play with these days (text messaging on their cell phones; posting videos to YouTube; razzing each other on Facebook; tweeting on Twitter; buzzing on Buzz; etc.) are permanent parts of the public record that will be on the front pages of newspapers when they decide to enter public life, even if that might be 20 years from now.
The second lesson it teaches is that candidates must be absolutely honest with their campaign teams about all of their foibles and possible vulnerabilities. Mr. Giambrone assembled a superb group, led (I can say across the political divide) by one of Canada's most accomplished, wise and respected campaign managers, John Laschinger. Mr. Giambrone's team had the depth and experience to think through Mr. Giambrone's fundamentally trivial personal issues (an unmarried 32-year old has love affairs -- who knew?) and to address them. But Mr. Giambrone failed to be upfront with the campaign professionals he recruited to his cause (perhaps he was more forthcoming with the corporal's guard of self-important young male school buddies he also brought into his campaign). And so the highly competent senior members of his team were unable to help him. As he learned, this left his candidacy lethally vulnerable.
The third lesson is that women are not political props. Mr. Giambrone's partner impressed her colleagues in the Government of Saskatchewan during her time there, and from all reports did so in graduate school and in her current employment as well. She is an accomplished public servant. She didn't deserve to be in the middle of this Torontonian front-page nonsense -- to Mr. Giambrone's considerable discredit.
The final lesson is that politics is blood sport. Particularly when you run as a progressive candidate focused on the public interest, you are challenging powerful vested interests with access to ample resources. They will arrange for something like this. Which can be an opportunity. To show what you're made of. To show how resilient, honest and focused on the job you can be. To demonstrate your character.
Mr. Giambrone demonstrated instead that he needs to gain some maturity, experience and judgement before tackling a role like this.
If there is any good news, it is that Mr. Giambrone's problems are ones he can fix.
Link to this postTuesday, February 9, 2010 1:39 PM EST
Mr. Giambrone and the Toronto Star
As people interested in politics last had occasion to reflect after reading the similarly-repellent and disappointing Kenneth Starr report (what is it about that last name and prurient delving?): Gentlemen (and women) don't ask questions like that. Best wishes on this tough day to Sarah McQuarrie.
Sunday, February 7, 2010 9:21 PM EST
Redemption and counter-redemption
Michael Ignatieff was getting killed last November.
His "your time is up" solo attempt to trigger a federal election convenient to himself backfired. The Conservative anger machine was in full roar in English Canada. Citizens were also not pleased with Mr. Ignatieff. And so he had a torrent of negative coverage dumped upon his head, and his polling numbers tanked.
Some of us in the orange tribe mused about what this all meant. It meant no fall 2009 election. Also, it meant Canada was in for a period of "Ignatieff redeemed" at some point in the first half of 2010.
This seemed the inevitable next swing of the pendulum. There could only be so much energy in the political culture for harping on Mr. Ignatieff's issues with judgment and experience.
As it turned out, Prime Minister Stephen Harper advanced the schedule by a few months through his second abuse of the royal prerogative – padlocking Parliament to avoid an inquiry into the fate of enemy combatants in our custody, and to allow government MPs to bask in the winter Olympics.
One of the prices the Prime Minister is paying for this second instance of executive contempt for our democracy is that Mr. Ignatieff is (slightly prematurely) enjoying a second honeymoon.
Specifically, a series of content-free fluff announcements (yet another Liberal daycare promise; a clumsy attempt to open a wedge issue on abortion; re-issuing photocopies of Jack Layton's pension proposals; etc.) have commanded uncritical above-the-fold and lead-of-the-show coverage. "Ignatieff redeemed" has happened in January and February instead of in March or April.
So now what?
From what can be made of it, the Conservative government does seem to be working away offstage, with their sleeves rolled up, to cobble together a new budget and legislative program. The big reveal will come in March – right on top of the Liberal platform event in Montreal that month. And then we'll see if it will be time for a "Harper redeemed" cycle.
So far, nothing fundamental seems to be resulting from any of this.
Mr. Ignatieff's party is doing a little better, but is basically stuck in their post-2000 range and seems likely to remain there unless fundamental political change occurs in Quebec. The Conservatives are down a few points but remain in range of their 2006 and 2008 election results. The New Democrats are holding their vote nicely, basically right on their 2006/2008 election numbers.
Now Mr. Layton's team neesd to step around Mr. Ignatieff and pick a real fight on a real issue with Mr. Harper's government – hopefully taking us to a better place, somewhere beyond redemption stories.
(File photo: The Canadian Press)
Friday, February 5, 2010 3:01 PM EST
A graceful and determined federal leader
Jack Layton shared a sad piece of news in an inspiring way today. He has begun a battle with prostate cancer, as his father did. He father beat this disease. Layton is planning to do so as well. He intends to carry on as a federal leader.
Layton joins an army. According to Prostate Cancer Canada, over 25,000 men will be diagnosed with this disease this year.
As his family history proves, prostate cancer is a serious challenge, but one than can be, and regularly is, overcome.
Layton has quietly spoken to a number of his political family in recent days about this matter. I had my moment with him two nights ago. His energy, determination and positive attitude -- to beat his cancer, and to carry on with his work -- struck me, and has struck everyone I know who he has spoken to.
I'm not in the least bit surprised.
And so what is left to say?
That, no doubt, all decent-minded Canadians of all political stripes will be wishing him the best of luck and a speedy recovery today. He has served Canada honourably and well, and deserves all of our best wishes.
That his approach to this challenge -- his positive attitude to his treatment, his determination to carry on with his work during it -- will be inspiring to other men with this disease.
And that this news is a moment to appreciate the qualities of this man. He is the federal leader in Parliament with the most experience in public affairs. He has turned out to be right a remarkable number of times. His values and priorities are in sync with Canadians. He has gone into the Parliaments of the 21st century determined to make them work.
He's a good guy to have around. And as he made clear today, he is going to stay around.
Friday, February 5, 2010 3:20 PM EST
The fastest with the mostest
Joe Pantalone is a distinguished member of Toronto City Council and of Mayor David Miller's executive committee. Smart, experienced and highly capable, he is a more-than-credible candidate to replace Mr. Miller.
However, as was demonstrated in a crammed west-end Toronto hall last night, the big battalions of the responsible right-centre-left coalition where a majority of citizens usually see themselves in municipal politics are lining up behind a different candidate in this mind-numbingly long Toronto city election campaign. They are lining up, seemingly overwelmingly, behind city councillor Adam Giambrone.
Giambrone has staged an impressive show of strength in his launch. Impressive in the number of supporters trying to cram into Giambrone's packed hall (I listened to his speech on the sidewalk over the thoughtfully-provided exterior speakers, since the hall was well past its standing-room limits). Impressive in the pathetic shouting of the tiny rent-a-crowd sent by one of his opponents to wave signs outside of his door (always a good sign). And impressive in the depth of his campaign team.
Giambrone's campaign is led by John Laschinger, a wily veteran of city, provincial and federal politics, with deep roots in the Conservative Party. Building around Laschinger, Giambrone seems to be forging an impressive mix of political veterans from all three parties, as well as bench strength from Toronto's cultural communities, the labour movement, business people, and community activists.
With his eye clearly on Rocco Rossi and George Smitherman, his two right-wing opponents, Giambrone said this week that the mayoralty isn't an entry-level job. That is a fact that works in Giambrone's favour, since he is both the youngest and the most experienced of the principal contenders in the race - a pretty good combination.
His has also been the strongest start out the gate so far.
If the goal of Giambrone's show of force last night was to make him the leading candidate of the sensible tendency in Toronto politics, it's probably got a pretty good chance of working.
Giambrone is assisted by polling numbers that consistently place him second behind the current front-runner, Mr. Smitherman.
And Giambrone is assisted by the fact that Mr. Rossi and Mr. Smitherman are helpfully splitting the smash-their-heads-kick-their-butts-burn-down-the-building-I'm-in-charge-now vote - a pitch that is not likely to age well in any event.
(Photo: Fred Lum/The Globe and Mail)
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Update I allege in the post above that the tiny group of sign-wavers were a rent-a-crowd sent to the event by one of Giambrone's opponents. That's how it looked to me; and some among them refused to identify themselves to media who asked. I should add that I don't know for sure they were put up to it, and (specifically) that when the Rossi and Smitherman campaigns say they had nothing to do with that rude and abusive handful of demonstrators (and both campaigns did say so after reading the words above) they are entitled to be believed.
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Another update As you'll see in the comments section below, some of the demonstrators also vigourously deny they are anything other than unhappy constituents of Mr. Giambrone.
Monday, February 1, 2010 10:03 AM EST
Getting it right on peace and war
Early in his leadership of the federal New Democratic Party, Jack Layton made it clear that he opposed Paul Martin's decision to engage Canada in a shooting war in Afghanistan. Layton had a number of good reasons for taking this position against the war policy of the former Liberal government in its dotage. A prime minister should not commit Canada to a hot war on his own authority. Increasing the level of violence in Afghanistan would not resolve the issues there. And the forces committed by NATO to that war had no realistic prospect of victory, and so were being committed to a fundamentally futile endeavour.
Conservatives and Liberals brayed at Layton, as did much of the rest of the political culture in English Canada. Taliban Jack. Peacenik. Quitter. What, he was challenged, did he propose instead?
He proposed that Western troops be phased out of the war. And he proposed that the Afghan government and its allies reach out to the Pashtun tribes and try to find a political solution to what otherwise threatened to be a permanent, sanguinary stalemate.
Canada and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies have now been fighting in Afghanistan for almost nine years -- longer, soon, than the First and Second World Wars put together. After all of that time, what is the strategy of the United States, Britain, NATO, the Afghan government, and most of the other allies engaged in the conflict?
After a final "surge," Western troops are to be phased out of the war. And the Afghan government and its allies are reaching out to the Pashtun tribes to try to find a political solution -- using the traditional Afghan politic levers of power-sharing, bribery, and ritualized negotiation (some of the details of this tricky but promising strategy are outlined here).
Good judgment on the big issues is what Canada looks for from our prime ministers. In the light of how we have been ruled in recent years on this and many other issues, that would be a nice change.
(Photo: Kirsty Wigglesworth/Associated Press)
Wednesday, January 27, 2010 6:00 PM EST
Of polls and advertising
We provided an English summary on this site of a report in La Presse about the latest CROP poll in Quebec.
The La Presse journalist was mostly interested in the bad news in that poll for Michael Ignatieff. But there's more to the results.
To begin, CROP (Quebec's most credible pollster) reports that only 5 per cent of Quebecers are "very satisfied" with the job the Harper government is doing, a number well below the Elvis Threshold -- the number of respondents who would also report that Elvis is still alive. Another 32 per cent are somewhat satisfied.
Fifty-nine per cent of Quebeckers are disssatisfied with the Conservative government's performance (32 per cent somewhat, 28 per cen very unsatisfied).
So who would be the best prime minister of Canada, according to Quebeckers? Jack Layton, leader of the New Democrats:
Best prime minister: Jack Layton 28 per cent; Stephen Harper 24; Michael Ignatieff 20.
Voting intensions (all of Quebec): Bloc 34 per cent; Liberals 24; Conservatives 21; NDP 17; Greens 4.
Voting intensions (Francophone): Bloc 40 per cent; Conservatives 20; Liberals 19; NDP 18.
It will be observed that the NDP is within one point of the Liberals among the critical Francophone vote, and only two points away from the Conservatives (all within the margin of error).
The bottom line: Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his government are not loved in Quebec. Or at least, Elvis is loved more. Michael Ignatieff trails all of his national opponents. At 34 per cent, the Bloc is underperforming. And the party with the most growth potential (looking at the leader and party numbers) is the Quebec slate headed by deputy NDP leader Tom Mulcair. Jack Layton has been working Quebec relentlessly since his first days as leader. It's paying off. He is also lucky in his federalist opponents, it would seem.
Television advertising
On another front, people involved in thinking about federal election campaigns were given something more to think about yesterday by Jack Bensimon, the witty and well-respected head of advertising agency Bensimon Byrne, which has been ingenious since 1993, their outdoor sign will tell you.
Bensimon helped kick off Advertising Week by presenting a sobering report that argued at only one in five viewers pays close attention to television advertising.
TV ads are typically the biggest expense in a federal election campaign. Bensimon's report is a reminder to political parties -- like all advertisers -- that getting a message through to voters during a campaign is a multi-channel challenge these days.
(File photo: Fred Chartrand/The Canadian Press)
Sunday, January 24, 2010 10:15 PM EST
A turning away
What does it mean when more than 25,000 Canadians take to the streets to protest an abuse of parliamentary procedure?
People on Prime Minister Stephen Harper's team will tell you it means a small minority of activists are trying to cause them trouble, but that in the grand scheme of things it won't matter because "process stories" don't affect election outcomes.
But I'm thinking this time they might be wrong.
I think something is going on out there. A slowly-rising, quietly determined Canadian version of the unease, the sense of distancing, the beginning of a turning away that the Democratic majority in the American Congress is worrying about in the wake of a stunning election upset in a Senate election in Massachusetts.
Canadians know their daughters and sons are being killed and wounded on the other side of the globe to (supposedly) try to build a democracy. A cause our parents and grandparents were called to serve as well, as we remember every Nov. 11.
Canadians know the present government does not have a mandate from a majority of Canadians, or even from a majority of MPs. And yet the Conservative government has casually padlocked our only national democratic institution to suit its convenience and its narrow political interests, using the reserve powers of the British Crown.
It has done so twice.
Thursday, January 21, 2010 12:38 PM EST
Bomb the bridge
It was the 1988 election and Brian Mulroney's Tories had a big problem.
John Turner had morphed into a progressive Canadian nationalist who just might rally Canada's progressive majority again Mulroney's free trade agreement.
So, as Tory pollster Allan Greg famously put it, the blue team set out to "bomb the bridge" - to destroy Turner's credibility through attack ads aimed at him personally.
It worked. They ran up Turner's negatives enough to scratch out a win. This tactic therefore entered the Conservative playbook as "Plan A." In many circumstances, federal and provincial, Tories now routinely roll out attack ads aimed at the personal credibility of opposing leaders.
Federally, against Liberals, it still seems to work. They hit gold against Michael Ignatieff for example. But then there are places where it probably won't work. Like in Saskatchewan.
As reported here, Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall has been cobbling together attack ads against NDP Leader Dwain Lingenfelter lately.
The high-priced Toronto advisors that the Wall government consults would go to "bomb the bridge" as the first page in their playbook in almost any circumstance.
And these days Premier Wall has particularly good reason to be worried by the experienced and wily NDP Leader across from him in the Saskatchewan Legislature. After all, Mr. Lingenfelter now has some beautiful material to work with. The Wall team, eastern-establishment darlings though they might still be, stand revealed this winter to be as fiscally incompetent as the last Saskatchewan Tory government was (I wrote about some of the details a few weeks ago).
Definitely time to try "bomb the bridge."
Monday, January 18, 2010 9:37 AM EST
Why 2010 might not be a lucky year for Tories
The bad news is that Stephen Harper got away with padlocking Parliament in the fall of 2008, in order to avoid a confidence vote.
This profoundly undemocratic and illegitimate act - which threw such ugly light on the vacuousness of the office of our Governor-General, the vulnerability of our democracy, and the over-mighty nature of our executive - was made possible for many reasons. Including ugly ethnic sloganeering, a then-largely sympathetic English-language chattering class, and the inestimable advantage (for Mr. Harper) that Stéphane Dion was about to be couped by Michael Ignatieff, who was of a mind to play along with the Conservatives for his own reasons. And so, Mr. Harper clung to office.
The good news is that Stephen Harper doesn't seem to be getting away with it a second time.
He padlocked Canada's Parliament once again in December 2009, this time to avoid an enquiry into the treatment of enemy combatants, and to permit his cabinet and caucus to bask in the Olympics. Canadians were divided about this government's contempt for Canadian democracy a year ago. They seem much clearer in their minds this time. The Prime Minister and his team have done themselves some serious and possibly lasting political damage.
A pretty bad start of the year. And quite conceivably, things aren't going to be getting better anytime soon.
What do the smart folks in the PMO believe is going to happen next?
They believe that Canadians will forget about their Prime Minister's contempt for our democracy, and will instead soon settle into patriotic cheering for our athletes in the Olympics - a tide of patriotism that will rub off on the government and raise its numbers once again.
It might work. But it is a truism in politics that it is usually a better idea to keep well clear of large athletic events, since they provide crowds with an opportunity to let their governments know what they think of them, in this case on worldwide television. Pierre Trudeau was routinely booed at Grey Cup games, for example.
So what kind of reception can the Prime Minister and his highly unpopular HST increase look forward to in British Columbia?
Here's my advice to Conservative ministers and MPs at the Olympics: sit right next to B.C. Premier Gordon Campbell. If you're going to do this, do it right.
Next up will be a Throne Speech and budget. But it seems unlikely, given the federal government's eleven-figure Tory deficit, that there will be much in the way of additional crowd-pleasing tax cuts or spending. The fiscal chickens are coming home to roost, as they generally do under post-Ronald Reagan Conservative governments. As for the Tory legislative program, Mr. Harper's principal legislative goal is to run up Canada's prison population. Shining a light on justice bills will underline that the Prime Minister killed all of them in December by proroguing the House. The return of the House in March may therefore pop an Olympic bubble if there is one, and mostly remind Canadians of this government's contempt for their legislature.
Mr. Harper then hopes to bask in a G8 meeting, which he will host north of Toronto later this year.
But as Italy's Silvio Berlusconi discovered when hosting his own G8 in L'Aquila, such meetings attract hundreds (if not thousands) of journalists from all around the world. And international summitry being what it is these days, that means thousands of journalists with not much to do. Except tell their viewers and readers about the host country and its government.
At the Italian summit, the world learned a lot more than Mr. Berlusconi might have liked about his numerous distressing public and private issues.
Will our Prime Minister, with this government's equally distressing environmental and anti-democratic record, fare better? Or will Canadians (and millions of others) be reading all about unrestricted tar sands development and about one of the democratic world's most undemocratic governments - about a Canadian prime minister who believes his country's national legislature reports to him, as The Economist put it? Will reading this on the homepages of CNN and the Times of London make Canadians feel fonder of this government?
So then, Mr. Harper will greet a G20 meeting.
Which threatens to be an awkward event, since the Harper government appears to be stumbling over Korea, who will be "co-hosting" the Canadian meeting and then hosting their own G20 meeting in Korea by themselves later in the year (some entertaining grumpiness about this mess here).
Possibly Canadians will find all of this inspiring.
But possibly instead Mr. Harper set the tone for the year in its very first days with his continuing indefensible contempt for our national Parliament - a gift that may keep on giving for some time.
Brian Topp Contributors
Brian Topp
Brian Topp is executive director of ACTRA Toronto. He also serves as chair of the board of Creative Arts Savings and Credit Union, and is a member of the board of directors of ROI Fund, a venture capital fund. He previously served as a senior vice-president at Credit Union Central of Canada, the national office of Canada's credit union system outside of Quebec. He served as deputy chief of staff to Saskatchewan premier Roy Romanow. He co-ordinated the federal NDP's campaign war room during the 1997 and 2004 federal elections, and served as that party's national campaign director during the 2006 and 2008 elections.