After each quarterly release of the National Economic Accounts data, Bank of Canada staff analyze the Canadian and international economies and produce forecasts for many macroeconomic variables. These forecasts are provided to Governing Council in preparation for monetary policy decisions. They are saved along with the relevant historical real-time data and released once a year with a five-year lag.
For more details about the Staff Economic Projections database, see Champagne, Poulin-Bellisle and Sekkel (2018), Staff Working Paper No. 2018-52.
Data Download
Projection data on this page is available in the CSV, JSON, and XML formats provided by our Valet API.
Real Gross Domestic Product
Nominal Gross Domestic Product
Implicit Price Deflator for GDP
Nominal Gross National Expenditure
Implicit Price Deflator for GNE
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Deflator for Personal Consumption Expenditures
Investment (Gross fixed capital formation)
Inventory Investment
Residential Investment
Government Expenditures
Exports of Goods and Services
Imports of Goods and Services
Sum of Personal consumption expenditures, residential investment and investment in inventories (CIRINV)
Deflator for CIRINV
Output gap
Consumer Price Index
Core Consumer Price Index
Unemployment rate
U.S. / CAD nominal exchange rate
Staff projection policy rate
The policy rates used in the staff projection are:
- The Bank rate (from 1982Q2 to 1993Q2, and from 2007Q3 to 2013Q4). The 3-month Commercial Paper rate (from 1993Q3 to 2007Q2).
5-year Federal Government bonds rate
Structure
Series
Each series download
- is organized by variable;
- contains one time series per projection for each variable.
Each series represents a snapshot of
- the historical data available to staff at a specific point in time;
- the forecasts produced by staff at that time.
Notation
Series names describe the variable and the projection (or “vintage”) date. Observations from before the vintage date are historical data, and those on or after the vintage date are forecasts.
For example, in the case of SWP-GDP1987Q1:
- The series name refers to GDP as of the first quarter (Q1) of 1987.
- Observations before 1987Q1 are historical data.
- Observations from 1987Q1 onward are forecasts.