INTRODUCTION
Content of Report
CHAPTER 1: DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS
Introduction
Demographic Trends over the Past Two Decades
Demographic Outlook over the Next Two Decades
Implications of Ontario’s Demographic Outlook
CHAPTER 2: LONG-TERM ONTARIO ECONOMIC PROJECTION
Introduction
Ontario’s Growing Economic Capacity
External Factors that Affect the Ontario Economy
Long-Term Ontario Economic Projection
Risks to the Economic Projection
Other Perspectives on Long-Term Economic Growth
CHAPTER 3: LONG-TERM SUSTAINABILITY OF ONTARIO PUBLIC SERVICES
Introduction
Demand for Health Care
Demand for Education and Training
Demand for Children’s and Social Services
Demand for Other Government Expenditures
Ontario Government Revenues
Other Jurisdictions’ Perspectives
Fiscal Sustainability
CHAPTER 4: MODERNIZING ONTARIO’S TAX SYSTEM FOR JOBS AND GROWTH
Introduction
Tax Plan for Jobs and Growth
Promoting Jobs and Growth Through Sales Tax Harmonization
and Tax Cuts for Business
How the Tax Changes Benefit People
CHAPTER 5: ADDRESSING ONTARIO’S INFRASTRUCTURE GAP
Introduction
Benefits of Infrastructure
Infrastructure Gap
Working to Close the Infrastructure Gap
Future Needs
CHAPTER 6: TOWARDS A PROSPEROUS AND SUSTAINABLE FUTURE
Introduction
Tax Plan for Jobs and Growth
Reducing Regulatory Barriers to Innovation and Economic Growth
Addressing the Infrastructure Gap
Investing in Knowledge and Skills
Fostering Innovation
Seizing Opportunities in the Green Economy
Partnering with Industry to Encourage Jobs and Investment
Conclusion
List of Tables
CHAPTER 2: LONG-TERM ONTARIO ECONOMIC PROJECTION
Table 1: Ontario Key Economic Variables
Table 2: Assumptions Overview: Key External Factors
Table 3: World Output Shares — Selected Countries
Table 4: Comparison of Ministry of Finance Projections
to Other Forecasts, 2010 to 2030, Average Annual Growth
Table 5: Comparison of Canadian Private-Sector Projections, 2010 to 2030, Average Annual Growth
Table 6: Ontario Key Economic Variables (History)
Table 7: Ontario Key Economic Variables (Projections)
Table 8: Ontario Key Economic Assumptions (History)
Table 9: Ontario Key Economic Assumptions (Projections)
CHAPTER 3: LONG-TERM SUSTAINABILITY OF ONTARIO PUBLIC SERVICES
Table 1: Per-Capita Provincial Government Health Spending,
by Age Group, Ontario, 2007, Current Dollars
CHAPTER 4: MODERNIZING ONTARIO’S TAX SYSTEM
FOR JOBS AND GROWTH
Table 1: Total Business Tax Relief by Sector — Annual Savings
Table 2: Annual Tax Savings to Business — Illustrative Examples
Table 3: Taxable Status of Goods and Services for Consumers Under HST
List of Charts
CHAPTER 1: DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS
Chart 1: Annual Rate of Population Growth in Ontario
Chart 2: Contribution of Natural Increase and Net Migration to
Ontario’s Population Growth
Chart 3: Proportion of Population Aged 0–14, 15–64 and 65+ in Ontario
Chart 4: Pace of Growth of Broad Population Age Groups in Ontario
Chart 5: Population of Ontario Regions, 2009 and 2030
CHAPTER 2: LONG-TERM ONTARIO ECONOMIC PROJECTION
Chart 1: Capital Stock Offsets Slower Labour Growth
Chart 2: Ontario Labour-Force Growth
Chart 3: Female Labour-Force Participation Rates by Age
Chart 4: Male Labour-Force Participation Rates by Age
Chart 5: Capital Stock
Chart 6: Rest of Canada Real GDP
Chart 7: Crude Oil Price — Nominal vs. Real
Chart 8: Canadian Dollar
Chart 9: Ontario CPI Inflation Rate
Chart 10: Interest Rates
Chart 11: Ontario Real GDP
Chart 12: Real GDP Per Capita
Chart 13: Relative Share of Exports and Imports
Chart 14: Ontario Real Export Shares
Chart 15: Goods- and Service-Producing Industries
Chart 16: Goods vs. Service Employment
Chart 17: Ontario Employment Growth in High-Skilled
and Low-Skilled Occupations
Chart 18: Growth in Real Output and GHG Emissions
CHAPTER 3: LONG-TERM SUSTAINABILITY OF ONTARIO PUBLIC SERVICES
Chart 1: Ontario Government Program Spending
Chart 2: Population Aged 65–74, 75–84 and 85+ in Ontario,
1989 to 2030
Chart 3: Price Increases in Health Care — Ontario
Chart 4: Elementary, Secondary and Postsecondary Source Population,
1989 to 2030 — Ontario
Chart 5: Ontario Per-Student Funding for Universities and Colleges,
1991–92 to 2008–09
Chart 6: Ontario Real Government Capital Spending
Chart 7: Ontario Government Revenues
Chart 8: Income from Savings Withdrawals Subject to PIT — Ontario
CHAPTER 4: MODERNIZING ONTARIO’S TAX SYSTEM FOR JOBS AND GROWTH
Chart 1: Tax Savings for a Manufacturer
Chart 2: Tax Savings for a Restaurant
Chart 3: Tax Savings for a Retailer
Chart 4: Tax Savings for a Software Publisher
Chart 5: Cutting Ontario’s METR on New Business Investment in Half
Chart 6: Impact of 2009 Budget on Ontario’s Tax Competitiveness,
All Industries
Chart 7: Impact of 2009 Budget on Ontario’s Tax Competitiveness,
Services
Chart 8: Impact of 2009 Budget on Ontario’s Tax Competitiveness,
Research and Development
Chart 9: Single Parent on Ontario Works, 2 Children (ages 5 & 7)
Chart 10: Single Senior, Pension Income $20,000
Chart 11: Single Individual, $30,000
Chart 12: Couple, $70,000, 2 Children (ages 5 & 10)
CHAPTER 5: ADDRESSING ONTARIO’S INFRASTRUCTURE GAP
Chart 1: Per-Capita Change in Ontario’s Public Infrastructure
Chart 2: Ontario Infrastructure Growth Outpaces that of the Rest of Canada
CHAPTER 6: TOWARDS A PROSPEROUS AND SUSTAINABLE FUTURE
Chart 1: Share of Employment by Industry, Ontario
Chart 2: Information and Communications Technology, Share of Employment, Ontario
Chart 3: Business and Financial Services Share
of Employment, Ontario
Chart 4: Employment Growth in Ontario’s Life Sciences Industries
