CHAPTER 1: POPULATION AND LABOUR FORCE TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS
- Introduction
- Demographic Trends and Projections
- Implications of Ontario’s Demographic Outlook
- Future Economic Growth May Be Restrained by Slower Labour Force Growth
- Facilitating Immigrants’ Integration into the Labour Market Will Support Economic Growth
- Greater Labour Force Participation of Underrepresented Groups Will Need to Be Encouraged
- A Growing and Aging Population Will Weigh on Government Spending
Regional Differences in Population Growth and Age Structure Will Require Targeted Government Response
CHAPTER 2: LONG-TERM ONTARIO ECONOMIC PROJECTION
- Introduction
- 1. The Global Economy and the External Environment
- 2. Ontario’s Potential Economic Output
- 3. Details of the Ontario Economic Outlook
- 4. Alternative Growth Scenarios
- 5. Risks to the Outlook
- Appendix I: Climate Change
- Appendix II: Ontario’s Long-Term Energy Plan
CHAPTER 3: THE CHANGING SHAPE OF ONTARIO’S ECONOMY
- Introduction
- Global Economic Restructuring: The Future of Manufacturing in Advanced Economies
- Adaptation and Transformation
CHAPTER 4: LONG-TERM FISCAL PROSPECTS
- Introduction
- 1. Importance of Fiscal Sustainability
- 2. Demand for Public Services
- 3. Federal–Provincial Fiscal Sustainability
CHAPTER 5: PRODUCTIVITY IN ONTARIO: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
- Introduction
- 1. Ontario’s Historical Productivity Trends
- 2. Ontario’s Productivity Growth Compared to Other Jurisdictions
- 3. Potential Causes of Ontario’s Lagging Productivity Growth
- 4. Policies to Improve Productivity
- 5. The Role of Business in Improving Productivity
CHAPTER 6: RETIREMENT INCOME SECURITY
- Introduction
- The Extent of the Retirement Savings Problem
- Factors that Contribute to the Savings Problem
- Who Is Most Likely to Have Inadequate Retirement Savings?
- Inadequate Retirement Savings and the Demographic Shift
- Increasing Retirement Savings Would Have Positive Economic Benefits
- Improving Retirement Preparedness
- Ontario’s Approach to Improving Retirement Income Security
List of Tables
CHAPTER 2: LONG-TERM ONTARIO ECONOMIC PROJECTION
- Table 2.1: Ontario’s Long-Term Economic Outlook
- Table 2.2: Assumptions Overview: Key External Factors
- Table 2.3: Ontario Key Economic Variables (Base Case)
- Table 2.4: Ontario Key Economic Assumptions (Base Case Projections)
- Table 2.5: Ontario Key Economic Variables (High Productivity)
- Table 2.6: Ontario Key Economic Variables (Low Productivity)
CHAPTER 3: THE CHANGING SHAPE OF ONTARIO’S ECONOMY
- Table 3.1: Nominal GDP Share of Major Ontario Sectors
- Table 3.2: Employment Share of Major Ontario Sectors
CHAPTER 4: LONG-TERM FISCAL PROSPECTS
List of Charts
CHAPTER 1: POPULATION AND LABOUR FORCE TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS
- Chart 1.1: Growth Rate of Ontario’s Population, 1971–2035
- Chart 1.2: Net Interprovincial Migration to Ontario, 1971–2013
- Chart 1.3: Contribution of Natural Increase and Net Migration to Ontario’s Population Growth, 1971–2035
- Chart 1.4: Baby Boomers Passing through the Ontario Age Structure, 1965–2035
- Chart 1.5: Age Distribution of Ontario’s Population, 1975–2035
- Chart 1.6: Share of Population Aged 65 and Over, Ontario and Selected Countries, 2012
- Chart 1.7: Growth Rate of the Core Working-Age Population in Ontario, 1971–2035
- Chart 1.8: Labour Force Participation Rates, 25–54 and 55–64 Age Groups, Ontario, 1976–2035
- Chart 1.9: Labour Force Participation Rates of Youth in Ontario, 1976–2035
- Chart 1.10: Labour Force Participation Rates of Seniors in Ontario, 1976–2035
- Chart 1.11: Population of the Greater Toronto Area, 1976–2035
- Chart 1.12: Labour Force Participation Rates by Age Group, Ontario, 1989 and 2013
CHAPTER 2: LONG-TERM ONTARIO ECONOMIC PROJECTION
- Chart 2.1: Projected Real GDP Growth: 2014 to 2035
- Chart 2.2: U.S. Real GDP
- Chart 2.3: Proportion of Global GDP
- Chart 2.4: Bank of Canada Commodity Price Index
- Chart 2.5: Global Central Bank Policy Interest Rates
- Chart 2.6: Canadian Dollar
- Chart 2.7: Ontario Labour Force Growth
- Chart 2.8: Public Infrastructure Investment in Ontario — All Contributors
- Chart 2.9: Growth in Ontario Real GDP: Supply Factors
- Chart 2.10: Ontario’s Real GDP Growth
- Chart 2.11: Ontario Real GDP Per Capita
- Chart 2.12: Ontario Employment
- Chart 2.13: Impact of High and Low Productivity Growth
CHAPTER 3: THE CHANGING SHAPE OF ONTARIO’S ECONOMY
- Chart 3.1: Service Sector’s Share of Ontario Employment Increasing
- Chart 3.2: Service Sector’s Share of Ontario GDP Increasing
- Chart 3.3: Manufacturing Sector’s Declining Employment Share in Ontario Is Comparable to U.S. Change
- Chart 3.4: Manufacturing’s Share of Total Employment, Selected OECD Countries and Ontario
- Chart 3.5: Ontario’s Exporters Losing Market Share in the United States
- Chart 3.6: Ontario Expanding Goods Exports to New Markets
- Chart 3.7: Ontario’s Science and Engineering (S&E) Workforce
- Chart 3.8: Financial and Business Services: Share of Ontario Employment
- Chart 3.9: Information and Communications Technology (ICT): Share of Ontario Employment
- Chart 3.10: Employment Growth in Ontario’s Life Sciences Industries
CHAPTER 4: LONG-TERM FISCAL PROSPECTS
- Chart 4.1: Own-Source Revenue to Nominal GDP, 1990–91 to 2034–35
- Chart 4.2: Ontario Government Program Spending, 2009–10 to 2012–13
- Chart 4.3: Population Aged 65–74, 75–84 and 85+ in Ontario, 1971–2035
- Chart 4.4: Price Increases in Health Care — Ontario
- Chart 4.5: Elementary, Secondary and Postsecondary Source Population, 1992 to 2035 — Ontario
- Chart 4.6: Federal and Other Governments’ Financial Positions
- Chart 4.7: Net Contribution to/(Benefit from) Equalization by Province in 2014–15
CHAPTER 5: PRODUCTIVITY IN ONTARIO: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
- Chart 5.1: Ontario Labour Productivity, Output and Hours Worked
- Chart 5.2: Ontario Labour Productivity Compared with Advanced Economies
- Chart 5.3: Labour Productivity in Ontario, Canada and the United States
- Chart 5.4: Labour Productivity Growth in Ontario Sectors
- Chart 5.5: Labour Productivity Level by Sector in Ontario
- Chart 5.6: Labour Productivity Level by Manufacturing Sector in Ontario
- Chart 5.7: Ontario Has Highly Educated Workforce Relative to OECD Countries
- Chart 5.8: Unit Labour Costs in Advanced Economies
- Chart 5.9: M&E Investment in Ontario Relative to Canada and the United States
- Chart 5.10: ICT Investment per Worker in Canada Relative to the United States
- Chart 5.11: ICT Net Capital Stock per Worker in Canada Relative to the United States
- Chart 5.12: Research and Development Spending in Ontario Relative to Canada and the United States
- Chart 5.13: Ontario’s Business-Funded Higher Education R&D Compared to Selected Countries
- Chart 5.14: Exporters Achieve Faster Productivity Growth
