: Ontario's Long-Term Report on the Economy
Contents

FOREWORD

INTRODUCTION

CHAPTER I: Demographic Trends and Projections

• Introduction
• Population Growth Is Moderating
• Population Growth Sustained by Immigration
• Population Aging
• Slower Growth of the Core Working-Age Group
• Concentration of Population Growth in the Greater Toronto Area
  • Central Ontario
  • Eastern Ontario
  • Southwestern Ontario
  • Northern Ontario
• Addressing the Implications of Ontario’s Demographic Outlook
  • Supporting Future Labour Force Growth
  • Addressing the Aging Population
  • Responding to Regional Conditions
  • Investing in Infrastructure

Chapter II: Economic Trends and Projections

• Introduction
• The Global Economy and the External Environment
  • World Economic Growth
  • Energy and Commodity Markets
  • Interest Rates
  • Canadian Dollar
  • Rest of Canada
• Ontario’s Potential Economic Output
  • Population and Labour Supply
  • Productivity
• Details of the Ontario Economic Outlook
  • External Trade and the Ontario Economy
  • Sectoral Evolution of the Economy
  • Alternative Productivity Scenarios
• Risks to the Outlook
• Other Perspectives on Long-Term Growth
• Enhancing Productivity Growth
  • Highly Skilled Workforce
  • Infrastructure Investment
  • Tax Competitiveness
  • Expanding International Exports
  • Low-Carbon Economy
  • Building on Ontario’s Culture Strategy

Chapter III: Employment Trends

• Introduction
• Competitive Economic Pressures
  • Globalization
  • Technological Advances
• Economic Growth and Measures of Well-Being
• Shifting Industrial Composition
• Changing Occupational Tasks and Skill Requirements
  • Employment by Skill Level
  • Wages Rise with Skill Level
• Shift to Alternative Forms of Employment
  • Rise of Non-Standard Employment
• Increasingly Diverse Workforce
  • Older Workforce
  • Women and the Labour Force
  • Immigrants
  • Youth
• Impacts on Working Ontarians
  • Changing Schedules and Pay Practices
  • Increase in Low-Income Workers
  • Decline in Access to Employer-Provided Health Benefits and Pension Plans
  • Access to Supports for Those Who Lose Their Job
  • Workplace Safety
• Strategies to Respond to the Changing Nature of Employment
  • Changing Workplaces Review
  • Access to Affordable Child Care
  • Minimum Wage
  • Income Security Reform and Innovation
  • Inclusive and Effective Training
  • Improving Workplace Health and Safety
  • Strengthening Retirement Security for Today’s Workers

Chapter IV: Long-Term Fiscal Prospects

• Introduction
• Importance of Fiscal Sustainability
• Fiscal Implications of Demographic and Economic Projections
  • Demand for Health Care
  • Demand for Education and Training
  • Demand for Children’s and Social Services
  • Demand for Other Government Expenditures
  • Future Cost of Infrastructure Investment
  • Ontario Government Revenues
  • Other Jurisdictions’ Perspectives
• Addressing Fiscal Sustainability
  • Transforming and Modernizing Public Service Delivery
  • Ensuring Revenue Integrity and Addressing the Underground Economy
• Federal–Provincial Fiscal Sustainability
• Addressing Federal–Provincial Fiscal Sustainability

Tables      

Chapter I: Demographic Trends and Projections

• Table 1.1: Highlights of the Long-Term Demographic Projections, Base-Case Scenario
• Table 1.2: Components of Demographic Growth in Ontario, 2011–40
• Table 1.3: Population of Ontario Regions, 2015–40
• Table 1.4: Age Distribution of Ontario’s Population, 2016–40

Chapter II: Economic Trends and Projections

• Table 2.1: Highlights of the Long-Term Projection: Base-Case Scenario
• Table 2.2: Assumptions Overview: Key External Factors
• Table 2.3: World Economic Outlook
• Table 2.4: Employment Share of Major Ontario Sectors
• Table 2.5: Comparison of Ministry of Finance Projections to Other Forecasts, 2016 to 2040, Average Annual Growth
• Table 2.6: Ontario Key Economic Variables (Base Case)
• Table 2.7: Ontario Key Economic Assumptions (Base-Case Projections)
• Table 2.8: Ontario Key Economic Variables (High Productivity)
• Table 2.9: Ontario Key Economic Variables (Low Productivity)

Chapter IV: Long-Term Fiscal Prospects

• Table 4.1: Per-Capita Provincial Government Health Spending, by Age Group, Ontario, 2014, Current Dollars

Charts     

Chapter I: Demographic Trends and Projections

• Chart 1.1: Growth Rate of Ontario’s Population, 1971–2040
• Chart 1.2: Contribution of Natural Increase and Net Migration to Ontario’s Population Growth, 1971–2040
• Chart 1.3: Net Interprovincial Migration to Ontario, 1971–2016
• Chart 1.4: Baby Boomers Passing through the Ontario Age Structure, 1965–2035
• Chart 1.5: Age Distribution of Ontario’s Population, 1980–2040
• Chart 1.6: Share of Population Aged 65 and Over, Ontario and Selected Countries, 2015
• Chart 1.7: Growth Rate of the Core Working-Age Population in Ontario, 1971–2040
• Chart 1.8: Population of the Greater Toronto Area, 1976–2040
• Chart 1.9: Population of Ontario Regions, 2015 and 2040
• Chart 1.10: Annual Immigration to Ontario, 1971–2016
• Chart 1.11: Labour Force Participation Rate by Gender, Ages 25–54, 1976–2015, Ontario
• Chart 1.12: Employment Levels in Ontario’s Regions, 1987 and 2016

Chapter II: Economic Trends and Projections

• Chart 2.1: Regional Share of Global GDP
• Chart 2.2: Crude Oil Price — Nominal vs. Real
• Chart 2.3: Interest Rates
• Chart 2.4: Canadian Dollar
• Chart 2.5: Rest of Canada Real GDP
• Chart 2.6: Ontario Labour Force Growth
• Chart 2.7: Ontario Real GDP Growth
• Chart 2.8: Real GDP Per Capita
• Chart 2.9: Ontario Labour Market
• Chart 2.10: Final Consumption Expenditure Share of GDP
• Chart 2.11: Gross Fixed Capital Formation as a Share of GDP
• Chart 2.12: Ontario’s International Exports
• Chart 2.13: Each U.S. State’s Largest Export Trading Partner
• Chart 2.14: Ontario’s Interprovincial Exports
• Chart 2.15: Crude Oil Price — Nominal vs. Real
• Chart 2.16: Contribution of Net Trade to Real GDP Growth
• Chart 2.17: Impact of High and Low Productivity Growth
• Chart 2.18: Share of Adult Population with Postsecondary Education Credential, Ontario and Selected OECD Countries — 2015
• Chart 2.19: Average Weekly Earnings by Education Level, Ages 25–64, Ontario, 2016
• Chart 2.20: Investing in Postsecondary Education Sector
• Chart 2.21: Research and Development Spending in Ontario Relative to Canada and the United States
• Chart 2.22: Historical and Planned Infrastructure Expenditures
• Chart 2.23: Economic Impact of Ontario Government Infrastructure Plan
• Chart 2.24: Corporate Income Tax Rates in Canada
• Chart 2.25: Ontario’s Marginal Effective Tax Rate on New Business Investment Has Been Cut Substantially since 2009
• Chart 2.26: Ontario Exports Expanding to New Markets
• Chart 2.27: Ontario Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Targets

Chapter III: Employment Trends

• Chart 3.1: World Real GDP and Trade Volume of Goods and Services, Estimates and Projections
• Chart 3.2: The Evolution of Technological Progress
• Chart 3.3: Hiring and Layoff Rates, Ontario, 18- to 64-Year-Olds
• Chart 3.4: Divergence Between Economic Growth and Median Income
• Chart 3.5: Diverging Trend Between Economic Growth and Well-Being
• Chart 3.6: Goods-Producing Industries as a Share of Total Employment
• Chart 3.7: Fastest-Growing Service Sectors as a Share of Total Employment
• Chart 3.8: Unionization Rates by Sector, 1981 and 2016
• Chart 3.9: Employment Change by Type of Occupation, Ontario
• Chart 3.10: Employment Growth by Skill Level
• Chart 3.11: Real Hourly Wage by Skill Level, 1997 and 2016
• Chart 3.12: Alternative Forms of Employment as a Share of Total Employment
• Chart 3.13: Decomposition of Non-Standard Employment as a Share of Total Employment
• Chart 3.14: Labour Force Participation Rates by Sex and Age Group
• Chart 3.15: Prevalence of Working Persons Below the After-Tax Low-Income Measure
• Chart 3.16: Share of Workers with Employer-Provided Benefits and Pension Plans, Standard and Non-Standard Employment, Ontario, 2011
• Chart 3.17: Share of Unemployed Ontarians Receiving Employment Insurance Regular Benefits
• Chart 3.18: Rate of Lost-Time Injuries

Chapter IV: Long-Term Fiscal Prospects

• Chart 4.1: Ontario Government Program Spending
• Chart 4.2: Older Age Groups in Ontario, 1990–2040
• Chart 4.3: Price Increases in Health Care — Ontario
• Chart 4.4: Elementary, Secondary and Postsecondary Source Population in Ontario, 1990 to 2040
• Chart 4.5: Ontario Government Revenues
• Chart 4.6: Income from Retirement Savings Withdrawals Subject to Personal Income Tax — Ontario
• Chart 4.7: Government of Canada Transfers
• Chart 4.8: Projected Government Sector Net Debt