Ontario population projections

Map of Ontario census divisions

Introduction

This report presents population projections for Ontario and each of its 49 census divisions, by age and gender, from the base year of 2020 to 2046. These projections were produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance during the spring of 2021.

The Ministry of Finance produces an updated set of population projections every year to reflect the most up-to-date trends and historical data. This update uses as a base the 2020 population estimates from Statistics Canada (released in February 2021 and based on the 2016 Census) and includes changes in the projections to reflect the most recent trends in fertility, mortality and migration.

Many components of demographic change have been affected by the COVID-19covid 19 pandemic. As part of deriving the assumptions to apply in the updated projections, preliminary data on mortality and migration were analyzed to incorporate potential short-term impacts related to the COVID-19covid 19 pandemic on the demographic components.

The new projections include three scenarios for Ontario. The medium, or reference scenario, is considered most likely to occur if recent trends continue. The low- and high-growth scenarios provide a reasonable forecast range based on plausible changes in the components of growth. Projections for each of the 49 census divisions are for the reference scenario only.

The projections do not represent Ontario government policy targets or desired population outcomes, nor do they incorporate explicit economic or planning assumptions. They are developed using a standard demographic methodology in which assumptions for population growth reflect recent trends in all streams of migration and the continuing evolution of long-term fertility and mortality patterns in each census division. Census division projections are summed to obtain the Ontario total.

The report includes a set of detailed statistical tables on the new projections. Key demographic terms are defined in a glossary.

Highlights

Highlights of the new 2020–2046 ^{footnote 1 [1]} projections for the reference scenario:

• Ontario's population is projected to increase by 35.8 per cent, or almost 5.3 million, over the next 26 years, from an estimated 14.7 million on July 1, 2020 to over 20.0 million by July 1, 2046.
• The growth of Ontario's population has been affected by the COVID-19covid 19 pandemic through both the disruptions to migration flows and the associated higher mortality. From a rate of 1.3 per cent last year (2019–20), the pace of annual growth of the provincial population is projected to decrease to 0.6 per cent in 2020–21 before rising to 2.1 per cent in 2021–22. Thereafter, the rate of growth is projected to ease gradually over time, reaching 1.0 per cent by 2045–46.
• Net migration is projected to account for 86 per cent of all population growth in the province over the 2020–2046 period, with natural increase accounting for the remaining 14 per cent.
• The number of seniors aged 65 and over is projected to almost double from 2.6 million, or 17.6 per cent of population, in 2020 to 4.5 million, or 22.2 per cent, by 2046. The growth in the share and number of seniors accelerates over the 2020–2031 period as the last cohorts of baby boomers turn age 65. After 2031, the growth in the number of seniors slows significantly.
• The number of children aged 0–14 is projected to increase moderately over the projection period, from 2.3 million in 2020 to 3.0 million by 2046. The children's share of population is projected to decrease gradually from 15.5 per cent in 2020 to 14.8 per cent by 2046.
• The number of Ontarians aged 15–64 is projected to increase from 9.9 million in 2020 to 12.6 million by 2046. This age group is projected to decline as a share of total population, from 66.9 per cent in 2020 to 62.9 per cent by 2046. As baby boomers continue to turn age 65, the growth in population aged 15–64 slows until 2027–28 and then accelerates slightly over the remainder of the projection period.
• Each of the six regions of the province are projected to see growing populations over the projection period. The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) is projected to be the fastest growing region, with its population increasing by 2.9 million, or 40.9 per cent, from 7.1 million in 2020 to almost 10.0 million by 2046. The GTA's share of provincial population is projected to rise from 48.0 per cent in 2020 to 49.8 per cent in 2046.
• All regions will see a shift to an older age structure. The GTA is expected to remain the region with the youngest age structure as a result of strong international migration and positive natural increase.

Projection results

Reference, low and high-growth scenarios

The Ministry of Finance projections provide three growth scenarios for the population of Ontario to 2046. The medium-growth or reference scenario is considered most likely to occur if recent trends continue. The low- and high-growth scenarios provide a forecast range based on plausible changes in the components of growth. Population is projected for each of the 49 census divisions for the reference scenario only. Charts and tables in this report are for the reference scenario, unless otherwise stated.

Under all three scenarios, Ontario's population is projected to experience growth over the 2020– 2046 period. In the reference scenario, population is projected to grow 35.8 per cent, or almost 5.3 million, over the next 26 years, from an estimated 14.7 million on July 1, 2020 to over 20.0 million on July 1, 2046.

In the short-term, the growth of Ontario's population is projected to be affected by the COVID-19covid 19 pandemic through both the disruptions to migration flows and the associated higher mortality. From a rate of 1.3 per cent last year (2019–20), the pace of annual growth of the provincial population is projected to decrease to 0.6 per cent in 2020–21 before rising to 2.1 per cent in 2021–22. Thereafter, it is projected to ease gradually over time, reaching 1.0 per cent by 2045–46.

In the low-growth scenario, population increases 19.9 per cent, or 2.9 million, to reach almost 17.7 million people by 2046. In the high-growth scenario, population grows 53.2 per cent, or 7.8 million, to 22.6 million people by the end of the projection period.

Chart 1: Ontario population, 1971 to 2046

In the low-growth scenario, the annual rate of population growth is projected to decline over time, from 1.5 per cent in 2021–22 to 0.5 per cent by 2045–46. In the high-growth scenario, the annual population growth rate is projected to decrease over the same period, from 2.7 per cent to 1.4 per cent.

Chart 2: Annual rate of population growth in Ontario, 1971 to 2046

The components of Ontario population change

The contributions of natural increase and net migration to population growth vary from year to year. While natural increase trends evolve slowly, net migration can be more volatile, mostly due to swings in interprovincial migration and variations in international migration. For example, over the past 10 years, the share of population growth coming from net migration has been as high as 87 per cent in 2018–19 and as low as 53 per cent in 2014–15.

Net migration levels to Ontario have averaged about 119,000 per year in the past decade, with a low of 47,000 in 2014–15 and a high of 205,000 in 2018–19. The number of births has been fairly stable, and deaths have been rising, resulting in the natural increase declining from 52,000 to 28,000 over the last decade.

Net migration has been affected by COVID-19covid 19 pandemic-related disruptions. Net migration to Ontario is projected to slow from 162,000 in 2019–20 to 63,000 in 2020–21, and to rebound to 276,000 by 2021–22. In the medium-term, as the different migration streams return to their long-term track, net migration will decline to reach 168,000 by 2027–28. Subsequently, net migration is projected to remain fairly stable, reaching 169,000 by 2045–46. The share of population growth accounted for by net migration is projected to decline from 90 per cent in 2021–22 to 83 per cent in 2027–28, and to gradually rise thereafter to reach 89 per cent by 2046, as a result of lower natural increase.

Chart 3: Contribution of natural increase & net migration to Ontario's population growth, 1971 to 2046

Largely due to higher mortality, natural increase is projected to decline slightly to 25,000 in 2020–21, from 28,000 in 2019–20. Beyond 2021, future levels of natural increase will be affected by two main factors. First is the passage of the baby boom echo generation (children of baby boomers) through peak fertility years, which results in a considerable increase in the number of births until the mid-2020s. Births are projected to increase from 146,000 in 2020–21 to over 161,000 by 2027-28 and to continue rising at a slower pace until the end of the projection period.

The second major factor influencing the future path of natural increase in Ontario is the continuing transition of large cohorts of baby boomers into the senior age group. By 2031, all baby boomers will be 65 or older and the number of deaths will start to increase more rapidly. The number of deaths for 2020–21 is projected at 120,000, based on the data available to date that reflects the impact of the pandemic on mortality. From 2021–22 to 2025–26, the annual number of deaths is projected to go from 115,000 to 124,000. Over the remainder of the projections, the annual number of deaths increases faster to reach 173,000 by 2045–46.

Natural increase is projected to increase from 25,000 in 2020–21 to 33,000 by 2026–27, followed by a steady decline to 21,000 by 2045–46. The share of population growth accounted for by natural increase is projected to decline from 17 per cent in 2027–28 to 11 per cent by 2045–46.

Age structure

By 2046, there will be more people in every single year of age in Ontario compared to 2020, with a sharp increase in the number of seniors. Baby boomers will have significantly increased the number of seniors; children of the baby boom echo generation will be of school-age; and the baby boom echo cohorts, along with a new generation of immigrants, will have boosted the population aged 15–64.

Chart 4: Age pyramid of Ontario's population, 2020 and 2046

The median age of Ontario's population is projected to rise from 40.4 years in 2020 to 42.3 years in 2046. The median age for women climbs from 41.7 to 43.4 years over the projection period, while for men it is projected to increase from 39.1 to 41.1 years.

The number of seniors aged 65 and over is projected to almost double from about 2.6 million, or 17.6 per cent of population in 2020, to almost 4.5 million, or 22.2 per cent, by 2046. In 2016, for the first time, seniors accounted for a larger share of population than children aged 0–14.

By the early 2030s, once all baby boomers have reached age 65, the pace of increase in the number and share of seniors is projected to slow significantly. The annual growth rate of the senior age group is projected to slow from an average of 3.2 per cent over 2020–31 to 0.9 per cent by the end of the projection period.

The older age groups will experience the fastest growth among seniors. The number of people aged 75 and over is projected to rise from 1.1 million in 2020 to almost 2.7 million by 2046. The 90+ group will more than triple in size, from 132,000 to 427,000.

For most age groups, the proportions of women and men in the population differ by less than five per cent. However, a substantial imbalance exists for older age groups, as a result of men's lower life expectancy. The proportion of women among the oldest seniors is projected to remain higher than that of men but will decline slightly as male life expectancy is projected to increase relatively faster. In 2020, there were 35 per cent more women than men in the 75+ age group. By 2046, it is projected that there will be 24 per cent more women than men in the 75+ age group.

Chart 5: Proportion of population aged 0–14, 15–64 and 65+ in Ontario, 1971 to 2046

The number of children aged 0–14 is projected to increase gradually over the projection period, from 2.3 million in 2020 to 3.0 million by 2046. The share of children in the population is projected to decrease from 15.5 per cent in 2020 to 14.8 per cent by 2046.

The number of Ontarians aged 15–64 is projected to grow from 9.9 million in 2020 to 12.6 million by 2046, a slower pace of increase than the 0–14 and 65+ age groups. As a result, the 15–64 age group is projected to account for a decreasing share of total population, declining from 66.9 per cent in 2020 to 62.9 per cent by 2046.

The growth rate of the population aged 15–64 is projected to continue to trend lower until the late 2020s. This age group is projected to grow by only 0.6 per cent annually by 2027–28. Thereafter, as the children of the baby boom echo begin to reach age 15, the pace of annual growth of the 15–64 age group is projected to improve, reaching 1.0 per cent in 2045–46.

Chart 6: Pace of growth of population age groups 0–14, 15–64 and 65+ in Ontario, 1971 to 2046

Within the 15–64 age group, the number of youth (those aged 15–24) is projected to increase throughout the projection period, from 1.9 million in 2020 to 2.5 million by 2046. The youth share of total population is projected to decline from 12.8 per cent in 2020 to 12.3 per cent by 2038, followed by a small rise to 12.5 per cent by 2046.

The number of people aged 25–44 is projected to increase during the projection period, from 4.0 million in 2020 to 5.3 million by 2046, while their share of population is projected to initially increase from 27.4 to 28.4 per cent by 2027, followed by a decline to 26.3 per cent by 2046.

The number of people aged 45–64 is projected to decline slowly until 2029, from 3.9 million in 2020 to 3.8 million. Growth of this age group is projected to pick up in the early 2030s, to reach 4.8 million by 2046. Its share of population is projected to initially decline from 26.7 to 22.6 per cent by 2033, and to resume growing to reach 24.2 per cent by 2046.

Demographic determinants of regional population change

The main demographic determinants of regional population trends are the current age structure of the population, the pace of natural increase, and the migratory movements in and out of each of Ontario's regions. These determinants vary substantially among the 49 census divisions that comprise the six geographical regions of Ontario and drive significant differences in demographic projections.

The current age structure of each region has a strong influence on projected regional births and deaths. A region with a higher share of its current population in older age groups will likely experience more deaths in the future than a region of comparable size with a younger population. Similarly, a region with a large share of young adults in its population is expected to see more births than a region of similar size with an older age structure. Also, since migration rates vary by age, the age structure of a region or census division will have an impact on the migration of its population.

The general aging of the population will result in a rising number of census divisions where deaths will exceed births (negative natural increase) over the projection period. Deaths exceeded births in 28 of Ontario's 49 census divisions from 2014 to 2019. This number is projected to rise gradually such that 33 census divisions are projected to experience negative natural increase by 2045–46. Although this represents a majority of census divisions, they will account for only 23 per cent of Ontario's population in 2046.

This declining trend in natural increase means that many census divisions in Ontario where natural increase previously was the main or even sole contributor to population growth have already started to see their population growth slow. This trend is projected to continue as the population ages further.

Chart 7: Evolution of natural increase by census division, 2021 to 2046

Migration is the most important factor contributing to population growth for Ontario and for most of its regions. Net migration gains, whether from international sources, other parts of Canada or other regions of Ontario, are projected to continue to be the major source of population growth for almost all census divisions.

Large urban areas, especially the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), which receive most of the international migration to Ontario, are projected to experience the strongest population growth. For other regions such as Central Ontario, the continuation of migration gains from other parts of the province will be a key source of population increase. Some census divisions of Northern Ontario tend to receive only a small share of international migration while experiencing net out-migration, mostly among young adults, which reduces projected population growth.

Regional population growth

The GTA is projected to be the fastest growing region of the province, accounting for over 55 per cent of Ontario's net population growth to 2046. The GTA's population is projected to increase from 7.1 million in 2020 to 10.0 million in 2046. The region's share of total Ontario population is projected to rise from 48.0 per cent in 2020 to 49.8 per cent in 2046.

Chart 8: Population of Ontario regions, 2020 and 2046

Within the GTA, Toronto's population is projected to rise from 2.99 million in 2020 to 3.95 million in 2046, adding 966,000 people, the largest population gain projected among census divisions. Nevertheless, Toronto's projected population growth rate of 32.3 per cent to 2046 will be slower than the provincial rate of 35.8 per cent. The four census divisions of the suburban GTA will add a total of over 1.9 million people over the projection period. Halton (57,1%), Peel (56.5%) and Durham (38.2%) are projected to grow faster than the average for Ontario, while York's population will growth at a pace (35.3%) close to that of the province as a whole.

Chart 9: Population growth/decline by census division over 2020 to 2046

The population of Central Ontario is projected to grow by 1.23 million or 38.4 per cent, from 3.20 million in 2020 to 4.42 million in 2046. The region's share of provincial population is projected to rise slightly from 21.7 to 22.1 per cent during the same period. Dufferin is projected to see its population increase by 39,000 from 2020 to 2046, a 57.5 per cent rise and the fastest growth among census divisions of the province. Three other census divisions of Central Ontario are projected to continue experiencing population growth above the provincial average over the projection period: Wellington at 50.8 per cent, Waterloo at 49.2 per cent and Simcoe at 43.6 per cent.

The population of Eastern Ontario is projected to grow 32.5 per cent over the projection period, from 1.93 million to 2.56 million. Ottawa is projected to grow fastest (43.7 per cent) from 1.04 million in 2020 to 1.50 million in 2046. All other Eastern Ontario census divisions are also projected to grow, but below the provincial average, with growth ranging from 8.7 per cent in Prince Edward to 31.7 per cent in Lanark.

The population of Southwestern Ontario is projected to grow from 1.72 million in 2020 to 2.22 million in 2046, an increase of 29.2 per cent. Growth rates within Southwestern Ontario vary, with Oxford and Middlesex growing fastest (41.5 and 37.5 per cent respectively), and Chatham-Kent and Lambton growing at the slowest pace (4.8 and 7.7 per cent respectively).

The population of Northern Ontario is projected to grow slowly over the projection horizon, with a slight increase of 3.7 per cent, from 811,000 in 2020 to 841,000 by 2046. Within the North, the Northeast is projected to see population growth of 23,000 or 4.0 per cent, from 569,000 to 592,000. The Northwest is projected to experience growth of 7,000 or 2.9 per cent, from 242,000 to 249,000.

In the past, Northern Ontario's positive natural increase offset part of the losses it experienced through net migration. However, while the North has recently seen modest net migration gains, its natural increase has turned negative.

Table A: Population shares of Ontario regions, 1986 to 2046

Sources: Statistics Canada, 1986–2016, and Ontario Ministry of Finance projections.

Regional age structure

All regions are projected to see a continuing shift to an older age composition of their population. The largest shifts in age structure are projected to take place in census divisions, many in northern and rural areas, where natural increase and net migration are projected to become or remain negative. The GTA is expected to remain the region with the youngest age structure, a result of strong international migration and positive natural increase. The Northeast is projected to remain the region with the oldest age structure.

In 2020, the share of seniors aged 65 and over in regional population ranged from a low of 15.4 per cent in the GTA to a high of 22.2 per cent in the Northeast. Among census divisions, it ranged from 13.7 per cent in Peel to 35.1 per cent in Haliburton.

By 2046, the share of seniors in regions is projected to range from 20.1 per cent in the GTA to 28.2 per cent in the Northeast. Among census divisions, it is projected to range from 17.7 per cent in Peel to 40.8 per cent in Prince Edward.

Chart 10: Share of seniors in population by census division in 2046

Even as the share of seniors in census divisions located in and around the suburban GTA is projected to remain lower than the provincial average, the increase in the number of seniors will be highest in this area.

Chart 11: Growth in number of seniors by census division, 2020 to 2046

The number of seniors is projected grow by 97 per cent in the suburban GTA. Conversely, the number of seniors grows most slowly (less than 30 per cent) in Timiskaming, Algoma, Thunder Bay, Cochrane and Sudbury.

The number of children aged 0–14 is projected to decline in the Northeast and the Northwest, but to increase in all other regions over the projection period. However, by 2046 the share of children in every region is projected to be slightly lower than it is today. In 2020, the highest share of children among regions was in the Northwest at 16.7 per cent; the Northeast had the lowest share at 14.5 per cent. By 2046, the Northeast is projected to remain the region with the lowest share of children at 13.7 per cent while the highest share is projected to be found in the Northwest at 15.7 per cent.

Peel, Dufferin, Halton, Wellington and Waterloo are projected to record growth of over 40 per cent in the number of children aged 0–14 over the 2020–2046 period, with Peel seeing the most growth at 53 per cent. Conversely, the majority of rural and northern census divisions are projected to have significantly fewer children by 2046, with the largest declines in the North. However, most census divisions are projected to see only a slight decrease in the share of children in their population. In 2020, the highest share of children was found in Kenora at 21.5 per cent and the lowest share in Haliburton at 9.3 per cent. By 2046, Kenora is projected to still have the highest share of children at 19.2 per cent while Haliburton is projected to continue to have the lowest at 8.7 per cent.

Chart 12: Growth/decline in number of children aged 0–14 by census division, 2020 to 2046

The share of population aged 15–64, which ranged from 63.2 per cent in the Northeast to 69.2 per cent in the GTA in 2020, is projected to decline over the 2020–2046 period in every region. The share of this age group is projected to range from 58.0 per cent of population in the Northeast to 65.1 per cent in the GTA by 2046.

While the share of population aged 15–64 is projected to decrease in every census division of the province, the number of people in this age group is projected to increase in 38 of the 49 census divisions. The census divisions where a decline in the number of people in this age group is projected are located in the North and in rural areas of Southern Ontario. The highest share of people aged 15–64 in 2020 was in Toronto (70.7 per cent) while the lowest was in Haliburton (56.6 per cent). By 2046, Toronto is projected to remain the region with the highest share of population in this age group (67.3 per cent), followed by Peel, Waterloo and Ottawa. Prince Edward is projected to have less than 50 per cent of its population aged 15–64 by 2046.

Methodology and assumptions

Projections methodology

The methodology used in Ministry of Finance long-term population projections is the cohort-component method, essentially a demographic accounting system. The calculation starts with the base-year population (2020) distributed by age and sex.

A separate analysis and projection of each component of population growth is made for each year, starting with births. Then, projections of deaths and the five migration components (immigration, emigration, net change in non-permanent residents, interprovincial in- and out-migration, and intraprovincial in- and out-migration) are also generated and added to the population cohorts to obtain the population of the subsequent year, by age and sex.

This methodology is followed for each of the 49 census divisions. The Ontario-level population is obtained by summing the projected census division populations.

It should be noted that the population projections are demographic, founded on assumptions about births, deaths and migration over the projection period. Assumptions are based on the analysis of the long-term and the most recent trends of these components, as well as expectations of future direction. For Ontario, the degree of uncertainty inherent in projections is represented by the range between the low- and high-growth scenarios, with the reference scenario representing the most likely outcome.

Base population

This report includes demographic projections released by the Ministry of Finance that use the latest population estimates based on the 2016 Census adjusted for net under-coverage. Specifically, the projections use Statistics Canada's preliminary July 1, 2020 postcensal population estimates as a base. As well as providing a new starting point for total population by age and sex, updating the projections to a new base alters the projected age structure and population growth in each census division. It also has an impact on many components of population growth that are projected by using age-specific rates, such as births, deaths and several of the migration streams.

Fertility

The projected number of births for any given year is obtained by applying age-specific fertility rates to cohorts of women in the reproductive age group, ages 15 to 49. The projection model relies on four parameters ^{footnote 2 [2]} to generate the annual number of births. The first of these parameters, the total fertility rate (TFR), reflects the level of fertility while the other three parameters (the mean age at maternity, the skewness and the variance of the distribution) reflect the timing, or age, at which women have their babies. These parameters are calibrated to generate age-specific fertility rates that closely follow recent trends.

Assumptions are based on a careful analysis of past age-specific fertility trends in Ontario and a review of fertility trends elsewhere in Canada and in other countries. A general and common trend is that a growing proportion of women are giving birth in their 30s and early 40s. The overall decline in the fertility rate among young women is accompanied by a rise in fertility rates among older women. Over the past 20 years, teenagers and women in their early 20s have experienced the sharpest declines in fertility rates. Fertility rates of women in their 30s and older, which were rising moderately over the 1990s and more rapidly over most of the 2000s, have shown a slower pace of increase in the most recent years. These are the same cohorts of women who postponed births during their 20s and are now having children in their 30s and early 40s.

Ontario's total fertility rate (TFR), which stood at 3.8 children per woman around 1960, fell below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman in 1972. Over the rest of the 1970s, the TFR fell rapidly toward the 1.40–1.70 range where it has been hovering ever since. The latest data available (2018) show a TFR of 1.45. Fertility rates are unlikely to return to the highs observed in the 1950s and early 1960s. Rather, it is believed that relatively small fluctuations around values below the replacement level are more likely.

In the reference scenario, the TFR is assumed to decline initially to reach 1.39 by 2028–29, and to subsequently rise slowly as younger women's fertility rates stabilize while those of older women continue to gradually increase, reaching 1.50 children per woman in 2046.

In the low- and high-growth scenarios, fertility is assumed follow a similar pattern of initial decline followed by a slight increase. By 2046, the TFR reaches 1.30 children per woman in the low-growth scenario and 1.70 in the high-growth scenario.

Fertility assumptions at the census division level

The most recent data for census divisions (2018) shows that TFRs range from a high of 2.12 in Huron to a low of 1.23 in Toronto. The projected parameters for fertility at the census division level are modelled to maintain regional differences. The census division-to-province ratio for mean age at fertility in the most recent period is assumed to remain constant. The variance and skewness of fertility distributions at the census division level evolve over the projection period following the same absolute changes of these parameters at the Ontario level.

Chart 13: Total fertility rate of Ontario women, 1979 to 2046

Mortality

The population of Ontario has one of the highest life expectancies in Canada and the developed world. The latest data shows that life expectancy at birth in Ontario was 84.5 years for females and 80.3 years for males in 2018. Deaths related to opioid use and the COVID-19covid 19 pandemic are having negative impacts on the pace of life expectancy improvement in the short term. However, the generally accepted view is that life expectancy will continue to rise over the long term in Canada and around the world.

Up to the mid-1990s, annual gains in life expectancy were becoming smaller and it was expected that future improvements would continue at this slowing speed. The pace of annual gains in life expectancy then picked up over the next two decades, and the progression of life expectancy became more linear. Until the mid-2010s, average gains in life expectancy were in the order of 0.16 years per year for females and 0.23 years for males. However, in recent years average life expectancy has not been increasing in Canada, partly due to an increase in opioid-related deaths, but mostly as a result of a slowdown in the improvement of survival rates from heart diseases, which was the main cause of increases in life expectancy over the past decades. It is assumed that other factors, such as continued progress in fighting cancer, will drive increases in the average lifespan at a gradual pace over the projection period.

The projected number of deaths each year is obtained by applying projected age-specific mortality rates to population cohorts of corresponding ages. Projections of age-specific death rates are derived ^{footnote 3 [3]} from trends related to the pace of improvement in overall life expectancy and the age patterns of mortality.

The three scenarios for Ontario all reflect a continuation of the gains recorded in the average duration of life. However, life expectancy is assumed to remain steady in the short term due to impacts of the pandemic and opioids and commences to increase at a gradual pace in 2021–22. Male life expectancy is expected to progress at a faster pace than that of females under the long-term mortality assumptions for each of the three scenarios. This is consistent with recent trends where males have recorded larger gains in life expectancy than females. This has resulted in a shrinking of the gap in life expectancy between males and females, a trend that is projected to continue. Furthermore, reflecting current trends, future gains in life expectancy are modelled to be concentrated at older ages and to be smaller for infants.

In the reference scenario, life expectancy in Ontario is projected to continue increasing, but slower than the average observed over the last two decades, with the pace of increase gradually diminishing over the projection period. By 2046, life expectancy is projected to reach 84.8 years for males and 87.9 years for females. This represents total life expectancy gains of 4.5 years for males and 3.4 years for females between 2018 and 2046.

In the low-growth scenario, life expectancy increases at a slower pace, to 83.3 years for males and 86.7 years for females by 2046. In the high-growth scenario, life expectancy reaches 86.5 and 89.4 years in 2046 for males and females respectively.

Table B: Life expectancy in Ontario, 1986 to 2046

Sources: Statistics Canada, 1986–2016, and Ontario Ministry of Finance projections.

Chart 14: Life expectancy at birth by sex in Ontario, 1979 to 2046

Mortality assumptions at the census division level

At the census division level, the mortality assumptions were developed using a ratio methodology. The Ontario-level mortality structure was applied to each census division's age structure over the most recent six years of comparable data and the expected number of deaths was computed. This was then compared to the actual annual number of deaths for each census division over this period to create ratios of actual-to-expected number of deaths. These ratios were then multiplied by provincial age-specific death rates to create death rates for each census division. These were then applied to the corresponding census division population to derive the number of deaths for each census division.

An analysis of the ratio of actual-to-expected deaths for each census division did not reveal a consistent pattern or movement toward a convergence or divergence among regions over time. For this reason, the most recent six-year average ratio for each census division was held constant over the projection period.

Components of net migration

The following sections discuss assumptions and methodology for the components of net migration, including immigration, emigration, non-permanent residents, interprovincial migration and intraprovincial migration.

Immigration

Immigration levels in Canada are determined by federal government policy. The federal Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) sets the national target and target-range for the level of immigration to be achieved over the following year(s). For calendar year 2021, the target is set at 401,000, with a plan for 411,000 in 2022 and 421,000 in 2023. These represent a significant increase from the targets set in recent years. The share of immigrants to Canada settling in Ontario has been increasing over the past few years, from 36.8 per cent in calendar year 2014 to 44.9 per cent in 2020. These higher shares are projected to continue in the future.

Due to the COVID-19covid 19 outbreak, immigration levels have been much lower than targeted since March 2020. However, IRCC has been implementing measures to achieve its 2021 immigration target, including lowering the threshold scores for invitation through Express Entry in categories where most applicants are already in Canada, holding larger draws, and setting up new temporary immigration pathways for non-permanent residents.

The reference scenario assumes a long-term immigration rate of 1.0 per cent, reached gradually over the projection period. However, immigration rates are assumed to be higher over the next few years, reflecting the current federal targets. Immigration levels are projected to reach 187,000 in Ontario by 2022-23, resulting in an immigration rate of 1.23 per cent. Over the rest of the projection period, the number of immigrants increases slowly over time as population grows, such that annual immigration is projected to reach 198,000 by 2045–46.

Chart 15: Rate of immigration to Ontario, 1971 to 2046

The long-term immigration rate is set at 0.8 per cent in the low-growth scenario, resulting in immigration levels rising from 150,000 in 2022–23 to 159,000 by 2045–46. In the high-growth scenario, the long-term rate of immigration is set at 1.2 per cent, resulting in immigration levels rising strongly, from 224,000 in 2022–23 to 238,000 by 2045–46.

Immigration assumptions at the census division level

Projected immigration shares for each census division are based on the trends observed in the distribution of immigrants by census division over the recent past. These shares evolve throughout the projection period following established trends. The average age-sex distribution pattern for immigrants observed over the past five years is assumed to remain constant over the entire projection period. Nearly 90 per cent of immigrants coming to Ontario in 2019–20 were aged 0–44.

Chart 16: Immigration to Ontario, 1971 to 2046

Emigration

Total emigration is defined as the gross flow of international emigration, minus returning emigrants, plus the net variation in the number of Ontarians temporarily abroad. The level of total emigration from Ontario averaged about 17,000 over the three years before the COVID-19covid 19 outbreak. However, the number of Ontarians moving abroad fell to about 9,000 in 2019–20, as a result of the pandemic.

The number of emigrants is difficult to estimate with a high degree of accuracy because of incomplete information. Statistics Canada publishes annual estimates of these flows based on a variety of sources, such as administrative data and immigration statistics published by agencies of other countries. However, these estimates are believed to be lower than the actual number of people who emigrate from Ontario each year. This under-estimation can help explain the difference between population growth as measured by Census enumerations adjusted for net under-coverage and estimated population growth by Statistics Canada over the same period.

Over the last intercensal period from 2011 to 2016, population estimates from Statistics Canada overestimated population growth in Ontario by about 12,000 people each year on average. It is thought that under-estimation of emigration is part of the explanation. In order to account for this unexplained aspect of Ontario's estimated population growth trends, the projections assume that emigration fully accounted for the overestimation. Therefore, an annual adjustment of about 12,000 to emigration is applied for each year of the projections.

In the reference scenario, the average emigration rates by age and sex for each census division over the past five years are used to model the projected number of people emigrating annually from each census division. These rates are then adjusted to reflect the annual intercensal residual adjustment. The modelling is dynamic, taking into account the annual changes in age structure within census divisions. For Ontario as a whole, this results in the number of emigrants increasing gradually over the projection period to reach 45,000 by 2045–46.

In the low-growth scenario, emigration rates by age and sex used in the reference scenario are increased by 30 per cent, making them 130 per cent of recently-observed rates. This results in emigration levels reaching 52,000 by 2045–46.

In the high-growth scenario, emigration rates by age and sex used in the reference scenario are reduced by 30 per cent, making them equivalent to 70 per cent of recently-observed rates. This results in the number of emigrants reaching 35,000 by 2045–46.

Chart 17: Emigration from Ontario, 1971 to 2046

Non-permanent residents

There were about 600,000 non-permanent residents (NPRs: for example, foreign students, temporary foreign workers, refugee claimants) living in Ontario on July 1, 2020. These foreign residents are part of the base population since they are counted in the Census and are included in the components of population change. The year-to-year change in the total number of NPRs is accounted for as a component of population growth in the projections. Determining assumptions for this component is complicated by the significant annual fluctuations in this group.

The annual increase in the number NPRs in Ontario was 43,000 in 2019–20, significantly lower than the net gain of 75,000 recorded in 2018–19. Over the past 30 years, Ontario has gained on average 11,000 non-permanent residents annually. As a proportion of total population, the corresponding rate was 0.073 per cent on average each year.

The reference scenario reflects long-terms trends in the annual change in the number of NPRs by setting the long-term yearly gain at 0.08 per cent of population. In the low- and high-growth scenarios, the long-term annual change in the stock of NPRs is set at 0.056 and 0.104 per cent of population respectively, representing both a 30 per cent range above and below the reference scenario.

The long-term assumptions for each projection scenario are reached after a transition period of eight years to reflect the lower net gains expected for the rest of 2021, followed by higher gains in the short-term. For 2020–21, the net loss is set at 22,000, followed by a net gain of 135,000 in 2021–22 and 67,500 in 2022–23. In the low-growth scenario, the net change is set at -44,000, 108,000 and 54,000 for the same years, and in the high-growth scenario at 0, 162,000 and 81,000.

Chart 18: Annual change in the number of non-permanent residents living in Ontario, 1971 to 2046

Non-permanent resident assumptions at the census division level

Projected shares of the net change in non-permanent residents for each census division, as well as their distributions by age and sex, are based on the shares observed over the last five years. The distribution pattern is assumed to remain constant over the projection period.

Interprovincial migration

Interprovincial migration is a component of population growth that fluctuates significantly from year to year. Although Ontario remains a major province of attraction for migrants from some other provinces, trend analysis of the last three decades reveals a mixed pattern of several years of gains followed by several years of losses. This pattern is usually closely tied to economic cycles.

Over the past 30 years, net interprovincial migration has not contributed to Ontario's population growth, with net losses averaging about 2,700 people per year. Since 2015, net interprovincial migration to Ontario was positive. However, the most recent data shows a reversal of this trend.

In the reference scenario, annual net interprovincial migration to Ontario is set at -3,500 for 2020–21, reflecting the most recent data. The long-term assumption of a net gain of zero is then reached immediately by 2021–22, remaining at that level for the rest of the projection period.

Chart 19: Net interprovincial migration in Ontario, 1971 to 2046

In the low-growth scenario, net interprovincial migration for Ontario is set at -8,500 for 2020–21 and becomes -5,000 from 2021–22 onwards. In the high-growth scenario, it is set at 1,500 for 2020–21 and becomes 5,000 annually starting in 2021–22.

The annual in-flows corresponding to the long-term net migration levels in the low-growth, reference and high-growth scenarios are 62,500, 65,000 and 67,500 respectively. The corresponding annual out-flows are 67,500, 65,000 and 62,500.

Interprovincial migration assumptions at the census division level

Each census division's share of Ontario inflow and outflow of interprovincial migrants over the last five years is applied to projected flows for the province and held constant throughout the projection period.

Intraprovincial migration

At the census division level, intraprovincial migration, or the movement of population from one census division to another within the province, is a significant component of population growth. This component directly affects population growth only at the census division level.

The annual number of intraprovincial migrants in Ontario has fluctuated within the 350,000 to 430,000 range over the past 20 years. Over the projection period, the annual number of intraprovincial migrants increases from 419,000 in 2020–21 to 446,000 in 2045–46. The resulting rate of intraprovincial migration in Ontario declines slightly over the projection period, from 2.8 per cent in 2020–21 to 2.2 per cent by 2045–46.

Intraprovincial migration assumptions at the census division level

The projected number of people, by age, leaving each census division for each year of the projections, as well as their destination within the province, is modelled using the origin-destination migration rates by age for each census division over the past five years. Because migration rates by age group are different for each census division and because different age groups have different origin-destination behaviours, the methodology provides a powerful tool to project movers based on observed age and origin-destination migration patterns. The modelling is dynamic, taking into account the annual changes in age structure within census divisions.

The evolution of intraprovincial migration patterns in each census division was studied to identify specific trends and the intraprovincial migration rate assumptions were adjusted to account for these trends.

Glossary

Baby boom generation

People born during the period following World War II, 1946 to 1965, marked by a significant increase in fertility rates and in the number of births.

Baby boom echo generation

People born during the period 1972 to 1992. Children of baby boomers.

Cohort

Represents a group of persons who have experienced a specific demographic event during a given period, which can be a year. For example, the birth cohort of 1966 consists of the number of persons who were born in 1966.

GTA

The Greater Toronto Area, comprised of the census divisions of Toronto, Durham, Halton, Peel and York.

International migration

Movement of population between Ontario and a foreign country. International migration includes immigrants, emigrants and non-permanent residents. Net international migration is the difference between the number of people entering and the number of people leaving the province from foreign countries.

Interprovincial migration

Movement of population between Ontario and the rest of Canada. Net interprovincial migration is the difference between the number of people entering Ontario from the rest of Canada and the number of people leaving Ontario for elsewhere in Canada.

Intraprovincial migration

Movement of population between the 49 census divisions within Ontario. Net intraprovincial migration for a given census division is the difference between the number of people moving from the rest of Ontario to this census division and the number of people leaving for elsewhere in the province.

Life expectancy

A statistical measure reflecting the average number of years of life remaining for members of a particular population at a specific age if they were to experience during their lives the age-specific mortality rates observed in a given year.

Median age

The median age is the age at which exactly one half of the population is older, and the other half is younger. This measure is often used to compare age structures between jurisdictions.

Natural increase

The number of births minus the number of deaths.

Net migration

Difference between the number of people entering and the number of people leaving a given area. This includes all the migration components included in net international migration, net interprovincial migration and net intraprovincial migration (for sub-provincial jurisdictions).

Non-permanent residents

Foreign citizens living in Ontario (for example, foreign students, temporary workers or refugee claimants).

Population aging

An expression used to describe shifts in the age distribution of the population toward more people of older ages. One indicator of population aging is an increasing share of seniors (ages 65+) in the population.

Population estimates

Measures of current and historical resident population derived using Census and administrative data.

Total fertility rate

The sum of age-specific fertility rates during a given year. Indicates the average number of children that a generation of women would have if, over the course of their reproductive life, they had fertility rates identical to those of the year considered.

Statistical tables

View the related statistical tables at Ontario's Open Data Catalogue

Accessible chart descriptions:

Chart 1

This line chart shows the estimated total population of Ontario from 1971 to 2020, and the projection to 2046 for the three scenarios (reference, high and low). Over the historical period, Ontario's population increased from 7.8 million in 1971 to 14.7 million in 2020. Over the projections period 2020-2046, the three scenarios gradually diverge. In the reference scenario, total population reaches 20.0 million in 2046. Ontario's population reaches 22.6 million in the high scenario and 17.7 million in the low scenario at the end of the projection period.

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Chart 2

This chart shows historical annual growth rates of Ontario's population as bars from 1971 to 2020, and projected growth rates as lines for the three scenarios (reference, high and low). Over the historical period, annual growth rates start at 1.5% in 1971-72, and then decline to reach 0.8% in 1980-81. This is followed by higher growth rates culminating at 2.7% in 1988-89, with a lower peak of 1.8% in 2000-01, trending lower to 0.7% in 2014-15, and finally reaching 1.3% in 2019-20. The projected annual growth rate of Ontario's population in the reference scenario is 0.6% in 2020-21 and 2.1% in 2021-22, trending down thereafter to reach 1.0% in 2045-46. In the high scenario, annual population growth goes from 2.7% in 2021-22 to 1.4% over the projection period. In the low scenario, population growth goes from 0.1% in 2021-22 to 0.5% in 2045-46.

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Chart 3

This area chart shows the annual contribution of natural increase and net migration to Ontario's population growth from 1971 to 2046. Over the historical period, natural increase was more stable than net migration, starting at about 69,000 in 1971-72, with an intermediate high point of 79,000 in 1990-91, and a declining trend to 28,000 by 2019-20. Over the projection period, natural increase is projected to be peak at around 33,000 in 2026-27, followed by a steady decline to 21,000 by 2045-46. Net Migration was more volatile over the historical period, starting at about 45,000 in 1971-72, with a low point of 10,000 in 1978-79, peaks of 194,000 in 1988-89, 168,000 in 2000-01, and 205,000 in 2018-19. Annual net migration is projected to decrease initially to 63,000 by 2020-21, rebound to 276,000 in 2021-22, and decline for the rest of the projection period to reach 169,000 by 2045-46.

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Chart 4

This population pyramid shows the number of people of each age in Ontario in 2020 and 2046 separately for males and females. In 2020, the pyramid starts at the bottom with about 70,000 each for males and females aged zero, and gradually widens to over 130,000 people per cohort in their early 20s. This is followed by a slight narrowing of the pyramid to about 90,000 each for males and females at ages around 40, and a peak around 110,000 at mid-50s ages. The pyramid subsequently narrows to only a few thousand people per cohort at ages 95+. The 2046 line starts at around 100,000 each for both males and females at age zero with steep peak above 130,000 around age 20, followed by a gradual decrease to around 135,000 near age 40, and a further decline to age 95+.

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Chart 5

This chart has three lines showing the evolution of the share of Ontario's population in age groups 0-14, 15-64 and 65+ over the 1971-2046 period. The highest proportion is aged 15-64 and is fairly stable over the historical period between 60% and 70%, with a declining trend starting around 2010. Over the projection period, the share of people aged 15-64 is projected to fall from 66.9% to 62.9%. The share of population aged 0-14 is seen falling gradually from 28.4% in 1971 to 15.5% in 2020, with a further decline to 14.8% by 2046. The share of seniors increases slowly from 8.3% in 1971 to 17.6% in 2020, and more rapidly over the projection period to reach 22.2% in 2046. The share of seniors surpassed that of children in 2016.

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Chart 6

This line chart shows the pace of annual growth of population age groups 0-14, 15-64 and 65+ in Ontario from 1971 to 2046. The 65+ age group grows faster than the other two groups for most of the historical and most of the projection period, with a peak of 4.3% in 2011-12 and a low close to 0.8% in the early 2040s. The annual pace of growth of the 15-64 age group is seen trending gradually lower from 2.4% in 1971-72 to 0.6% by the late-2020s, and then rising to 1.0% around the end of the projection period. The annual growth rate of the 0-14 age group is the most volatile, recoding declines from 1971 to 1982 with a trough of -2.3% in 1978-79, and then again from 2002 to 2011. Over the projection period, growth in the number of children is projected to peak at 1.2% in the early 2030, ending at 1.0% by 2045-46.

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Chart 7

This map shows the evolution of natural increase by census division in Ontario over the projection period 2019-46. The census divisions are split in four categories.

Census divisions where natural increase is projected to be negative in both 2021-22 and 2045-46 include: Rainy River, Thunder Bay, Cochrane, Algoma, Sudbury, Greater Sudbury, Timiskaming, Manitoulin, Parry Sound, Nipissing, Lambton, Chatham-Kent, Huron, Bruce, Grey, Haldimand-Norfolk, Niagara, Muskoka, Haliburton, Kawartha Lakes, Peterborough, Northumberland, Hastings, Prince Edward, Lennox & Addington, Frontenac, Renfrew, Lanark, Leeds & Grenville, Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry.

Census divisions where natural increase is projected to be positive in 2021-22, but negative by 2035-36 include: Simcoe, Prescott & Russell.

Census divisions where natural increase is projected to be positive in 2011-22, but negative by 2045-46 include: Perth.

Census divisions where natural increase is projected to be positive throughout 2021-2046 include: Kenora, Essex, Middlesex, Elgin, Oxford, Brant, Waterloo, Wellington, Hamilton, Dufferin, Halton, Peel, York, Toronto, Durham, Ottawa.

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Chart 8

This chart shows a map of Ontario's six regions with bars showing their total populations in 2020 and 2046.

For 2020, the chart shows total population in millions for each of the regions as:

Northwest 0.2, Northeast 0.6, Southwest 1.7, Central 3.2, GTA 7.1, East 1.9.

For 2046, the chart shows total population in millions for each of the regions as:

Northwest 0.2, Northeast 0.6, Southwest 2.2, Central 4.4, GTA 10.0, East 2.6.

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Chart 9

This map shows the population growth or decline by census division in Ontario over the projection period 2020-46. The census divisions are split in four categories.

Census divisions where population is projected to decline include: Cochrane, Sudbury, Timiskaming.

Census divisions where population is projection to grow between zero and 20% include: Kenora, Rainy River, Thunder Bay, Algoma, Greater Sudbury, Manitoulin, Parry Sound, Nipissing, Lambton, Chatham-Kent, Prince Edward, Lennox & Addington, Renfrew, Leeds & Grenville, Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry.

Census divisions where population is projected to increase between 20% and 35% include: Essex, Elgin, Huron, Bruce, Perth, Grey, Haldimand-Norfolk, Brant, Hamilton, Niagara, Toronto, Kawartha Lakes, Muskoka, Haliburton, Peterborough, Northumberland, Hastings, Frontenac, Lanark, Prescott & Russell.

Census divisions where population is projected to increase by over 35% include: Middlesex, Oxford, Wellington, Dufferin, Simcoe, Waterloo, Halton, Peel, York, Durham, Ottawa.

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Chart 10

This map shows the projected share of seniors in the population of Ontario census divisions in 2046. The census divisions are split in four categories.

Census divisions with less than 22% seniors in 2046 include: Kenora, Middlesex, Waterloo, Wellington, Dufferin, Hamilton, Halton, Peel, Toronto, Durham, Ottawa.

Census divisions with between 22% and 27% seniors in 2046 include: Rainy River, Thunder Bay, Cochrane, Greater Sudbury, Essex, Elgin, Perth, Oxford, Brant, Simcoe, York, Frontenac.

Census divisions with between 27% and 32% seniors in 2046 include: Algoma, Sudbury, Timiskaming, Manitoulin, Nipissing, Lambton, Chatham-Kent, Huron, Bruce, Grey, Haldimand-Norfolk, Niagara, Peterborough, Hastings, Lennox & Addington, Renfrew, Lanark, Prescott & Russell, Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry.

Census divisions with over 32% seniors in 2046 include: Parry Sound, Muskoka, Haliburton, Kawartha Lakes, Northumberland, Prince Edward, Leeds & Grenville.

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Chart 11

This map shows the growth in number of seniors in the population of Ontario census divisions between 2020 and 2046. The census divisions are split in four categories.

Census divisions with less than 40% projected growth in number of seniors over 2020-2046 include: Kenora, Rainy River, Thunder Bay, Cochrane, Timiskaming, Algoma, Manitoulin, Sudbury, Greater Sudbury, Nipissing, Chatham-Kent, Lambton, Prince Edward.

Census divisions with between 40% and 55% projected growth in number of seniors over 2020-2046 include: Parry Sound, Huron, Bruce, Grey, Haliburton, Peterborough, Renfrew, Lennox & Addington, Frontenac, Leeds & Grenville, Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry.

Census divisions with between 55% and 80% projected growth in number of seniors over 2020-2046 include: Essex, Middlesex, Elgin, Perth, Oxford, Haldimand-Norfolk, Brant, Hamilton, Niagara, Toronto, Muskoka, Kawartha Lakes, Northumberland, Hastings, Lanark.

Census divisions with over 80% projected growth in number of seniors over 2020-2046 include: Waterloo, Wellington, Dufferin, Simcoe, Halton, Peel, York, Durham, Ottawa, Prescott & Russell.

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Chart 12

This map shows the growth or decline in number of children aged 0-14 in the population of Ontario census divisions between 2020 and 2046. The census divisions are split in four categories.

Census divisions with a projected decline in number of children aged 0-14 over 2020-2046 include: Kenora, Thunder Bay, Cochrane, Sudbury, Timiskaming, Manitoulin, Nipissing, Chatham-Kent, Prince Edward.

Census divisions with between 0% and 20% projected growth in number of children aged 0-14 over 2020-2046 include: Rainy River, Algoma, Greater Sudbury, Parry Sound, Lambton, Haliburton, Peterborough, Hastings, Renfrew, Lennox & Addington, Frontenac, Leeds & Grenville, Prescott & Russell, Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry.

Census divisions with between 20% and 30% projected growth in number of children aged 0-14 over 2020-2046 include: Essex, Perth, Huron, Bruce, Grey, Middlesex, Elgin, Brant, Niagara, York, Toronto, Durham, Kawartha Lakes, Muskoka, Northumberland, Lanark.

Census divisions with over 30% projected growth in number of children aged 0-14 over 2020-2046 include: Haldimand-Norfolk, Oxford, Waterloo, Wellington, Hamilton, Halton, Dufferin, Peel, Simcoe, Ottawa.

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Chart 13

This line chart shows the historical total fertility rate of Ontario women from 1979 to 2018, and projections under the three scenarios for 2020-2046. Over the historical period, the total fertility rate in Ontario has been hovering within a narrow range, going from 1.61 in 1979 to 1.45 in 2018. Under the reference scenario, the total fertility rate is projected to increase from 1.43 in 2020-21 to 1.50 in 2045-46. Under the high scenario, the total fertility rate is projected to increase from 1.53 in 2020-21 to 1.70 in 2045-46. Under the low scenario, the total fertility rate is projected to decline from 1.33 in 2020-21 to 1.30 in 2045-46.

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Chart 14

This line chart shows the historical life expectancy at birth by gender in Ontario from 1979 to 2018, and projections under three scenarios for 2020-2046.

For females, life expectancy at birth rose from 78.9 years in 1979 to 84.5 years in 2018. Over the projection period to 2046, life expectancy of females is projected to increase gradually to reach 87.9 years under the reference scenario, 89.4 years under the high scenario, and 86.7 years under the low scenario.

For males, life expectancy at birth rose from 71.8 years in 1979 to 80.3 years in 2018. Over the projection period to 2046, life expectancy of males is projected to increase gradually to reach 84.8 years under the reference scenario, 86.5 years under the high scenario, and 83.3 years under the low scenario.

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Chart 15

This line chart shows the historical immigration rate to Ontario from 1971 to 2020 and projections under three scenarios to 2046. Over the historical period, the immigration rate was very volatile, starting at 0.79% in 1971-72, rising to 1.49% by 1973-74, declining to a low of 0.44% by the mid-1980, rising again to 1.38% by 1992-93, then falling gradually to reach 0.66% in 2014-15, and rebounding 0.97% to in 2018-19.

Over the projections period 2020-2046, the immigration rate to Ontario is projected initially rebound by 2022-23 to 1.24% in the reference scenario, 1.47% in the high scenario, and 1.00% in the low scenario. This is followed by gradual declines to 2045-46 in all scenarios to reach 1.00% in the reference scenario, 1.07% in the high scenario, and 0.90% in the low scenario.

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Chart 16

This chart shows historical annual immigration levels to Ontario from 1971 to 2020 and projections under three scenarios to 2046. Over the historical period, immigration was very volatile, stating at about 62,000 in 1971-72, rising to 120,000 by 1973-74, falling to 40,000 in the mid-1980s, rising to peak at 153,000 in 2001-02, gradually declining thereafter to reach 90,000 in 2014-15, and rebounding to 139,000 in 2018-19.

Immigration to Ontario is projected to increase from 102,000 in 2020-21 to 198,000 in 2045-46 in the reference scenario, from 128,000 to 238,000 in the high-growth scenario, and from 77,000 to 159,000 in the low-growth scenario.

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Chart 17

This chart shows historical annual emigration levels from Ontario and residual deviations in Statistics Canada's estimates from 1971 to 2020, as well as projections of emigration under three scenarios to 2046. Over the historical period, emigration was very volatile, stating at about 13,000 in 1971-72, rising to 22,000 by 1973-74, falling to 8,000 in 1980-81, rising to peak at 27,000 in 1993-94 and hovering below 20,000 since 2016.

During the historical period, the residual deviation ranged from -2,000 in 1987-88 to 22,000 in 2007-08.

Emigration from Ontario is projected to increase from 14,000 in 2020-21 to 45,000 in 2045-46 in the reference scenario, from 9,000 to 35,000 in the high scenario, and from1 9,000 to 52,000 in the low scenario.

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Chart 18

This chart shows historical annual net gains in non-permanent residents in Ontario from 1971 to 2020 and projections under three scenarios to 2046. Over the historical period, the net gain was very volatile, starting with values close to zero in the early 1970s, with a peak of 95,000 in 1988-89, a deep through of -54,000 in 1992-93, and another high level in 2017-18 at 78,000.

The projected annual net gain of non-permanent residents in Ontario in the reference scenario is projected to fall by 22,000 in 2020-21, rebound to a gain of 135,000 in 2021-22, and reach 16,000 by 2045-46. In the high scenario, the net gain is projected at zero in 2020-21, 162,000 in 2021-22, reaching 19,000 by 2045-46. In the low scenario a net loss 44,000 is projected for 2020-21, a gain of 108,000 in 2021-22, with an endpoint of 13,000 for 2045-46.

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Chart 19

This chart shows the historical net interprovincial migration gain in Ontario from 1971 to 2020 and projections under three scenarios to 2046.

Over the historical period, net interprovincial migration followed cycles of net gains followed by net losses. Net interprovincial migration was generally negative during the 1970s, the late 1980s and early 1990s, and has been negative since 2003. Positive cycles occurred during the early 1980s and the late 1990s. In 2019-20, net interprovincial migration to Ontario was close to zero.

In the reference scenario, annual net interprovincial migration is set at -3,500 for 2020-21 and at zero for the rest of the projections. In the high scenario, a net annual gain of 1,500 is assumed for 2020-21, and net gains of 5,000 for the rest of the projections. In the low scenario, net interprovincial migration is set at -8,500 for 2020-21 and at -5,000 for the rest of the projections.

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Map of Ontario Census Divisions

This map includes the following census divisions:

GTA:

1. Toronto
2. Durham
3. Halton
4. Peel
5. York

Central:

6. Brant
7. Dufferin
8. Haldimand–Norfolk
9. Haliburton
10. Hamilton
11. Muskoka
12. Niagara
13. Northumberland
14. Peterborough
15. Simcoe
16. Kawartha Lakes
17. Waterloo
18. Wellington

East:

19. Ottawa
20. Frontenac
21. Hastings
22. Lanark
23. Leeds and Grenville
24. Lennox and Addington
25. Prescott and Russell
26. Prince Edward
27. Renfrew
28. Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry

Southwest:

29. Bruce
30. Elgin
31. Essex
32. Grey
33. Huron
34. Chatham–Kent
35. Lambton
36. Middlesex
37. Oxford
38. Perth

Northeast:

39. Algoma
40. Cochrane
41. Manitoulin
42. Nippissing
43. Parry Sound
44. Greater Sudbury
45. Sudbury
46. Timiskaming

Northwest:

47. Kenora
48. Rainy River
49. Thunder Bay

Return to Map of Ontario Census Divisions