Ontario Demographic Quarterly: Highlights of first quarter

Learn about key facts and figures of the province's demographics for the first quarter of 2021.

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Population growth

Ontario’s population reached 14,789,778 on April 1, 2021, with a increase of 34,567 people during the first quarter of 2021. This compares to an increase of 34,422 in the same quarter of the previous year.

Population growth, Ontario, Q1 2021
Components of population growth	Number of people (in thousands)
Population, January 1, 2021	14,755.2
Plus births	34.6
Minus deaths	33.2
Plus immigrants	35.0
Minus emigrants^{footnote 1[1]}	4.4
Plus net change in non-permanent residents	8.2
Plus interprovincial arrivals	16.0
Minus interprovincial departures	21.6
Population, April 1, 2021	14,789.8

Births and deaths

There were 34,608 births during the first quarter of 2021, an increase of 0.9% from the same quarter of 2020. The number of deaths increased by 5.3% to reach 33,196.

Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 1,412 in the quarter, down from 2,777 in the same quarter of 2020.

International migration

Immigration to Ontario was 34,983 in the quarter, up from 32,290 in the same quarter of 2020. Ontario received 49.6% of all immigrants to Canada in the quarter, an increase from 46.7% in the same quarter of 2020. Over the 12 months to March 31, Ontario received 85,674 immigrants, down sharply from 154,543 during the previous year.

There were 4,421 emigrants from Ontario in the first quarter, up from 2,281 during the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario accounted for 46.7% of all emigration from Canada in the quarter.

The number of non-permanent residents in Ontario (NPRs – i.e. foreign students, visa workers and refugee claimants) increased by 8,222 to about 591,000 in the quarter.

Overall, there was a net international migration gain of 38,784 in the first quarter, up from a net gain of 33,708 in the same quarter of 2020.

Components of population growth, Q1 2021 and average for 2016-2020

Interprovincial migration

In the first quarter of 2021, Ontario had a net outflow of 5,629 people to the rest of Canada, compared to a net outflow of 2,063 people in the same quarter of 2020. Ontario experienced net gains in its exchanges with 3 of the 12 other provinces and territories, with the largest net gains from Saskatchewan (659) and Manitoba (407). The largest net losses were to British Columbia (−2,730) and Nova Scotia (−1,545). Over the 12 months to March 31, Ontario’s total net interprovincial migration outflow was 7,054, compared to a net inflow of 1,193 during the previous year.

Year-over-year growth

Over the 12 months to March 31, Ontario’s population grew by 66,281 or 0.5%, lower than growth of 256,335 (1.8%) during the previous year. Among the provinces, Ontario had the fifth fastest population growth rate, after Prince Edward Island (0.8%), British Columbia (0.6%), Alberta (0.6%) and Nova Scotia (0.5%). Canada’s population grew at a rate of 0.4% over the period.

For more information, contact Alex Munger at 437-242-7697.

Ontario demographic factsheet

Population (000s) - Estimates^{footnote 2[2]}
Region	2006	2011	2016	2018	2019	2020
Canada	32,571	34,339	36,109	37,065	37,593	38,005
Ontario	12,662	13,261	13,875	14,309	14,545	14,734
Ontario as % of Canada	38.9	38.6	38.4	38.6	38.7	38.8
Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown)	1.3	0.9	0.9	1.7	1.6	1.3

Population (000s) - MOF Projections
Region	2021	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
Canada	38,285	40,315	42,271	44,115	45,844	47,479
Ontario	14,822	16,076	17,091	18,083	19,058	20,016
Ontario as % of Canada	38.7	39.9	40.4	41.0	41.6	42.2
Ontario average annual growth rate (Over previous year shown)	0.6	1.6	1.2	1.1	1.1	1.0

Age distribution (%) - Estimates^{footnote 2[2]}
Age group	2006	2011	2016	2018	2019	2020
0–4	5.4	5.4	5.2	5.0	5.0	4.9
5–14	12.3	11.2	11.0	10.8	10.7	10.6
15–24	13.8	13.7	12.9	13.0	13.0	12.8
25–44	29.4	27.1	26.5	26.7	27.0	27.4
45–64	26.0	28.3	28.1	27.5	27.1	26.7
65–74	6.9	7.6	9.2	9.6	9.8	10.0
75+	6.2	6.6	7.1	7.3	7.5	7.6

Age distribution (%) - MOF Projections
Age group	2021	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
0–4	4.9	4.9	4.9	4.9	4.9	4.9
5–14	10.5	10.0	9.9	10.0	9.9	9.9
15–24	12.6	12.9	12.7	12.4	12.4	12.5
25–44	27.4	28.4	28.3	27.8	26.9	26.3
45–64	26.5	24.1	22.7	22.8	23.6	24.2
65–74	10.3	10.9	11.3	10.5	9.4	9.0
75+	7.8	8.9	10.2	11.7	13.0	13.3

Selected age groups (%) - Estimates^{footnote 2[2]}
Age group	2006	2011	2016	2018	2019	2020
0–14	17.8	16.6	16.1	15.8	15.6	15.5
15–64	69.2	69.1	67.6	67.3	67.1	66.9
65+	13.0	14.2	16.3	16.9	17.3	17.6

Selected age groups (%) - MOF Projections
Age group	2021	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
0–14	15.4	14.9	14.8	14.8	14.8	14.8
15–64	66.5	65.4	63.7	62.9	62.8	62.9
65+	18.1	19.8	21.6	22.3	22.4	22.2

Other characteristics - Estimates^{footnote 2[2]}
Other characteristic	2006	2011	2016	2018	2019	2020
Total dependency ratio (%)^{footnote 3[3]}	60.6	60.4	62.6	63.2	63.3	63.6
Median age (years)	38.4	39.8	40.7	40.6	40.5	40.4
Age span of baby boom (years)	41-60	46-65	51-70	52-71	53-72	54-73
Total fertility rate^{footnote 4[4]}	1.55	1.56	1.51	1.45	N/A	N/A
Female life expectancy at birth (years)^{footnote 4[4]}	83.1	84.0	84.4	84.5	N/A	N/A
Male life expectancy at birth (years)^{footnote 4[4]}	78.8	79.8	80.3	80.3	N/A	N/A
Families (000s)	3,539	3,722	3,832	3,953	3,990	4,030
Households (000s)^{footnote 5[5]}	4,555	4,888	5,169	N/A	N/A	N/A

Other characteristics - MOF Projections
Other characteristic	2021	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
Total dependency ratio (%)^{footnote 3[3]}	64.5	67.9	72.3	74.0	74.5	74.3
Median age (years)	40.6	40.4	40.9	41.5	42.0	42.3
Age span of baby boom (years)	56-75	61-80	66-85	71-90	76-95	81-100
Total fertility rate^{footnote 4[4]}	1.43	1.39	1.39	1.42	1.46	1.50
Female life expectancy at birth (years)^{footnote 4[4]}	84.7	85.2	85.9	86.6	87.3	87.9
Male life expectancy at birth (years)^{footnote 4[4]}	80.5	81.2	82.2	83.1	84.0	84.8
Families (000s)	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Households (000s)^{footnote 5[5]}	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Regional distribution (%) - Estimates^{footnote 2[2]}
Region	2006	2011	2016	2018	2019	2020
Greater Toronto Area	45.8	47.2	47.8	47.8	48.0	48.0
Central	22.0	21.6	21.6	21.7	21.7	21.7
Eastern	13.2	13.2	13.1	13.1	13.1	13.1
Southwestern	12.6	12.0	11.7	11.7	11.7	11.7
Northeastern	4.5	4.3	4.1	4.0	3.9	3.9
Northwestern	1.9	1.8	1.7	1.7	1.7	1.6

Regional distribution (%) - MOF Projections
Region	2021	2026	2031	2036	2041	2046
Greater Toronto Area	47.9	48.5	48.9	49.3	49.6	49.8
Central	21.8	21.8	21.9	22.0	22.0	22.1
Eastern	13.1	13.0	12.9	12.9	12.8	12.8
Southwestern	11.7	11.6	11.4	11.3	11.2	11.1
Northeastern	3.8	3.6	3.4	3.2	3.1	3.0
Northwestern	1.6	1.5	1.4	1.4	1.3	1.2

Components of change (000s)^{footnote 6[6]} — year beginning July 1
Period	Population, beginning of period	Total change	Births	Deaths	Natural increase
Five-Year: 2001–06	11,898	764	658	418	240
Five-Year: 2006–11	12,662	600	697	441	256
Five-Year: 2011–16	13,261	614	702	471	231
Annual: 2016–17	13,875	195	141	102	39
Annual: 2017–18	14,070	239	141	107	34
Annual: 2018–19	14,309	236	140	109	31
Annual: 2019–20	14,545	189	143	115	28

Components of change (000s)^{footnote 6[6]} — year beginning July 1
International migration
Period	Immigrants	Net emigrants	Net NPRs	Net
Five-Year: 2001–06	653	125	44	573
Five-Year: 2006–11	558	104	57	511
Five-Year: 2011–16	519	123	85	481
Annual: 2016–17	98	19	63	142
Annual: 2017–18	132	16	78	194
Annual: 2018–19	139	16	75	198
Annual: 2019–20	127	9	43	161

Components of change (000s)^{footnote 6[6]} — year beginning July 1
Interprovincial migration
Period	In	Out	Net
Five-Year: 2001–06	307	336	-30
Five-Year: 2006–11	296	355	-59
Five-Year: 2011–16	307	346	-39
Annual: 2016–17	72	58	13
Annual: 2017–18	70	60	10
Annual: 2018–19	67	60	7
Annual: 2019–20	70	70	0

Note: All population figures are for July 1^st.

Sources: Ontario Ministry of Finance and Statistics Canada.

June 17, 2021
Office of Economic Policy

Accessible image description:

This bar chart compares the components of population growth in the first quarter of 2021 with the average of the same quarter of the previous five years (2016-2020). In the first quarter of 2021, births, deaths and immigration were higher than the average of first quarters of the previous five years, while the net change in the number of non-permanent residents, emigration and net interprovincial migration were lower.

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Updated: September 22, 2021

Published: June 23, 2020

Footnotes

footnote[1] Back to paragraph Emigrants plus net change in temporary emigrants minus returning Canadians.
Source: Statistics Canada.
footnote[2] Back to paragraph All projections are produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance (Spring 2021), except those for Canada (and Ontario as % of Canada), which are from Statistics Canada.
footnote[3] Back to paragraph Total dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 0–19 and 65+ to the population aged 20-64.
footnote[4] Back to paragraph Total Fertility Rate estimates are for calendar year, and projections are for census year. Life expectancy estimates represent three-year averages (e.g., 2006 reported life expectancy corresponds to the average recorded over 2005-2007).
footnote[5] Back to paragraph Households are Census data.
footnote[6] Back to paragraph In the "Components of Change" table, flows are for the 12-month period July 1 to June 30. Net international migration is calculated as the net balance of immigrants, net emigrants and net non-permanent residents (NPRs). Components may not add up due to existence of residuals.