The MSC conducts research to ensure that Environment Canada has a solid scientific foundation on which to develop policies and strategies that safeguard the environment and protect human health. The transition project will allow us to increase our ties with the academic research sector through the creation of a series of new national labs across the country. During 2002-2003, our staff in the regions and headquarters conducted research in a wide variety of areas related to air quality, climate change, hurricanes, weather and adaptation to atmospheric change, variability and extremes. They also produced reports and articles and conducted scientific presentations. Following are some examples of these MSC-led research activities.
MSC staff in the smog chamber
The MSC is working on numerous projects that will lead to improvements in our numerical weather prediction (NWP) products. These projects are focused on the Global Environmental MultiScale (GEM) model and the MSC three-dimensional variational assimilation system (3Dvar), which are the cornerstones of the operational NWP systems at the CMC. Projects under way include improving the model resolution used for short-range forecasting (12 to 48 hours) from 24 km to 15 km, and the model resolution used for medium-range forecasting (3 to 10 days) from 100 km to 35 km. The new model versions will include improvements to the representation of clouds and precipitation and land surface-atmosphere exchange processes (e.g., changes in soil water content and melting of snow on the ground). Development of the capability to assimilate new types of satellite measurements is also continuing. The new short-range and medium-range versions of GEM are scheduled for operational implementation in 2004 following completion of the conversion to a new IBM supercomputer.
The St. Lawrence is one of the largest rivers in North America; its watershed includes nearly all of southern Quebec. Tributaries double its flow between the Great Lakes and the Estuary. The MSC, along with partners from federal, provincial and municipal governments, universities and interest groups, is quantifying the physical, biological, chemical and socio-economic impacts associated with fluctuating water levels under different possible scenarios expected for the future. This initiative is undertaken in the context of the Plan d'action Saint-Laurent.
This highly detailed modelling effort covers the Cornwall to Trois-Rivières portion of the River (approximately 200 km) and integrates outputs of hydrodynamic and atmospheric numerical models, current and projected land use mapping, bank protection and flood control works, substratum and aquatic plants distributions, as well as parameterizations of fish habitats, recreational boating and other uses of the River. The resultant high resolution database and associated numerical tools will be used to simulate and predict expected impacts under scenarios such as climate change, new regulation plans from the International Joint Commission (IJC) and potential changes to the river bed (for example, due to dredging). It is noteworthy that most impacts on the ecosystem begin with and are explainable by changes to the physics of the river (for example, water levels, turbidity, and temperature).
Our staff provide expertise to the IJC in its binational management of the water resources of the Great Lakes. This expertise includes membership on three International Great Lakes Boards of Control and primary Canadian responsibility for their daily operations, which affect the operation of major hydro-electric power plants, shipping, recreational boating and other interests. MSC staff are the primary source of Canadian expertise in the IJC's development of an improved plan for the regulation of Lake Ontario/St. Lawrence River water levels and outflows. Subject of specific studies by the MSC and our partners are fish habitat potential, water use, recreational boating, erosion and flooding.
In September 2002, the Air Quality Models Applications Group (AQMAG) of the MSC and the Institute for Chemical Process and Environmental Technology (ICPET) of the National Research Council of Canada signed a two-year co-operation agreement. Under the agreement, numerical tools will be developed to allow the AQMAG to enhance, integrate, compare and assess Canadian and U.S. air quality modelling systems. It is envisaged that in two years the Canadian air quality modelling system will be able to use processed emissions inventories generated by a U.S. system and the U.S. air quality modelling system will be able to use meteorological fields generated by the Canadian GEM modelling system. The agreement builds on an exchange of letters stating an intent for formal collaboration between the MSC and the National Research Council of Canada.
In March 2003, 42 air quality scientists from Canada, the U.S. and Mexico completed a three-year review of the state of knowledge of airborne particles, a major component of smog in North America. The assessment was co-chaired by the MSC, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the University of Minnesota. The resultant report, Particulate Matter Science for Policy Makers, provides an overview of the situation in North America and identifies problem areas. It was produced to provide science-based guidance for governments and other agencies working to reduce air pollution in North America. The report summarizes knowledge for nine key regions in North America, including the smog-prone areas of the lower Fraser Valley in southern BC and the Windsor- Quebec City corridor.
The production of the report was coordinated by the North American Research Strategy for Tropospheric Ozone ("NARSTO"), a three-country agency of government, university and industry representatives. NARSTO's mission is to provide scientific advice to guide action to reduce smog, including ground-level ozone and airborne particles.
MSC staff in the mercury lab
The consensus of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is that on a global scale, most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities. However, unless climate change signals are detected at spatial scales that are relevant to the development of national policy (these scales are typically much smaller than the globe), climate change will remain an abstract concept for policy makers. MSC scientists are studying whether the warming signal projected by the Canadian models is now detectable in temperature readings taken over smaller parts of the globe. By beginning globally, and focusing on successively smaller areas, they have shown for the first time that the greenhouse gas warming signal can be seen in observations taken in North America and Eurasia during the past 50 years.
One means by which we can evaluate the response of a climate model to conditions substantially different from today's is to simulate the climate of the distant past. These 'paleoclimate' simulations compare the simulated climate to reconstructions drawn from natural climate recording systems. A particularly well-studied period is the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) of approximately 21,000 years ago. At that time, North America was covered by a large ice sheet and the global climate was several degrees cooler than today. MSC scientists have produced one of the first near-equilibrium simulations of the LGM climate using a comprehensive coupled climate model.
For the past five years, the MSC has collaborated with the National Water Research Institute and the universities of Saskatchewan and Calgary to improve the understanding of Prairie wetlands hydrology and the influence of waterfowl populations. MSC staff use the Palmer Drought Index (PDI) to track departures of modelled soil moisture from climatologically expected conditions. They demonstrated a strong correlation between the PDI and both the number of waterfowl and the number of wetlands across the Prairie ecozone. Climate change scenarios were tested using this strong relationship. Results suggest a range of possible futures with most scenarios indicating a significant decrease in the number of wetlands and waterfowl populations. Only one scenario suggested a slight increase in wetlands and waterfowl populations.
The agricultural industry dealt with an unprecedented nation-wide drought in 2001-2002. MSC researchers, supported by the Saskatchewan Research Council and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, summarized the climatology of the 2001-2002 drought in Eastern Canada and compared the drought with previous ones.
In addition, we conducted a detailed analysis of the impacts and adaptations of the 2001-2002 drought on crop production, livestock production, pastureland and water resources in Eastern Canada. We also prepared a review of government response and safety net programs for Eastern Canada. This information may aid in the development of regional and provincial drought risk management plans to reduce vulnerability to future droughts.
The MSC conducted the Climate Change and Canada's National Park System study to assess how climate change will affect our national parks and their representation of Canada's natural heritage. The first phase of the assessment, conducted jointly with the University of Waterloo, was done in 2000. A second phase was initiated in 2002-2003.
An MSC scientist, working with faculty from the universities of Waterloo and Toronto, used two global vegetation models and four general circulation models to examine how vegetation changes could impact the national parks. Results suggest that new biome types would emerge in more than half of the parks and that there would be a loss of representative northern biomes (tundra, tundra/taiga and boreal forest) in the park system.
The results of this assessment suggest that Canada's National Park System may not be adequate to protect the ecosystems for which they were originally established. They underscore the need for Canada to develop and implement adaptation strategies for biome conservation. The assessment results are influencing how parks managers plan for the future and how they see the role of national parks in preserving Canada's natural heritage.
The Green LaneTM,
Environment Canada's World Wide Web Site.