Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC)

Selected Performance Information

Operational Measures

Warning Verification

Measuring the accuracy and timeliness of warnings and forecasts is an important yet difficult task for the MSC. Performance measurement activities serve three main purposes: first, they help identify where research is needed to improve the techniques and technologies behind the modern forecast system; second, they help forecasters identify individual training needs; and third, they give the general public, media and decision makers an analysis of the quality of service provided.

Warnings and forecasts represent separate challenges in terms of performance measurement. While it is possible for the MSC to determine the extent and impact of larger-scale storms, Canada's relatively sparse observation network does not always capture smaller-scale high-impact weather events. As such, the MSC must often rely on reports provided by citizens through the public media. These reports present a challenge not only in terms of data capture and electronic storage, but also because they frequently lack the details needed to determine the precise extent and impact of such events.

The MSC has launched a two-year development program for measuring the accuracy and timeliness of its warnings, with an initial focus on smaller-scale severe summer thunderstorm and tornado events. Software has been developed to receive and analyze data in 2002-03 and to capture and store all warnings issued by the MSC. The development of high-impact-winter-weather and large-scale-storms-event data capture will be completed in the coming year.

Forecast Verification

A new initiative for measuring the accuracy of routine public forecasts is underway, with a pilot system expected to be delivered by the end of the 2002-03 fiscal year and a fully operational system implemented in all public forecast centers in 2003-04. With these two performance measurement initiatives completed, the MSC will be able to deliver a comprehensive accounting of its public forecast and warning responsibility.

Performance of Radars

For the past year the National Radar Project's radars have been, on average, operational more than 96% of the time with the highest one month average being over 98%.

Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) Production System

Quality Improvements in CMC Products

After months of preparation, the implementation of a new analysis and modelling system in December 2001 resulted in an internationally acclaimed improvement of the MSC's forecast guidance products. These improvements stemmed from research and development efforts carried out by both the Meteorological Research Branch and the CMC over the last few years. They include the following:

• Major improvements were incorporated into the CMC's operational data assimilation system. This system provides a realistic representation of what is happening in the atmosphere and is an essential component in providing weather forecasts. These improvements resulted in better data availability and significant improvements in forecasts in the Southern Hemisphere and on the west coast of North America.

• Significant changes were implemented to the Canadian Numerical Weather Prediction model. These included the addition of a scheme to the global forecast model that vastly improves the realism of mountain effects on atmospheric circulation, and the reduction of some numerical filtering. These improvements are showing benefits to the full suite of operational products, including emergency response products.

• The CMC incorporated a new module into its regional forecast model that takes into account more terrestrial vegetation and surface types, including land, water, sea ice and glaciers. The exchange of heat and humidity between the subsoil, the earth's surface and the lower atmosphere is also more realistic.

Graph showing percentage of time forecasts are within 3°C of the actual observed temperature at 23 selected stations across Canada. The observed improvement over the years corresponds to improvements to the numerical weather prediction and post-processing systems.

Such improvements form the basis on which MSC will continue to build upon to improve the accuracy of its forecasts, including precipitation. Every Canadian is touched by these changes either directly or indirectly as the services provided to us by weather forecasters from coast to coast have significantly improved. More information is available on the CMC web site: /cmc/index_e.html

Client Satisfaction Measures

The MSC regularly consults its clients, including the general public, through surveys and focus groups. The results are used to ensure that products and services meet public and client needs and expectations and to determine if changes or improvements are required.

Post-Event Surveys on Weather Warnings

The MSC commissioned several surveys following severe weather events (tornadoes and winter storms) to determine how many Canadians actually hear or see warnings of impending severe weather, the actions taken, and the impact of the events. These surveys help to improve understanding of public perceptions and behaviour with respect to severe weather and warning messages, and to measure the effectiveness of such warnings in reducing negative impacts.

Post-event surveys were conducted in the following locations:

         Summer 2001:      Alma/St. Gédéon (tornado)

                          Chicoutimi (tornado)

Winter 2001-02: Winnipeg (heavy snowfall)

                           Greater Toronto Area

                           (heavy snowfall/freezing rain)

Results confirm that the vast majority of Canadians receive weather warnings via the mass media, especially television. While most respondents feel that warning messages are very important and provide them with sufficient information to take protective action, for most events the number of respondents who had heard or seen a warning was low, and the number that took action even lower. The survey results are being used to sharpen the MSC's public outreach and education programs.

Other Feedback Methods

The MSC successfully responded to over 40 000 inquiries received via its web site and national 1-800 enquiry line (1-877-789-7733). Approximately 99% of the inquiries were received via the web site. The majority of the inquiries pertained to areas such as public forecasts, weather warnings and severe weather and archive data.

The Green Lane^TM,
Environment Canada's World Wide Web Site.