"Many of the forest management activities required to address climate change are already part of current actions. In the context of climate change, it is the location and intensity of these problems that will change and challenge the sector's ability to cope and adapt." ⁽⁹²⁾

While individual tree species would respond independently to climate change through migration and physiological changes, there are many different ways in which the forest sector may adapt. Some forest managers may take a 'wait and see' approach, dealing with changes as they occur, but a strong case can and should be made for the importance of planned adaptation, in which future changes are anticipated and forestry practices (e.g., silviculture, harvesting) are adjusted accordingly.

Anticipatory adaptation takes climate change into account during the planning process. It is especially important when the rotation periods are long,⁽⁹³⁾ as the species selected for planting today must be able to not only withstand, but hopefully thrive in, future climates.⁽⁹⁴⁾ Although appropriate anticipatory adaptation should reduce losses from climate change, uncertainties regarding the timing, location, and magnitude of future change hinder its inclusion in forestry management.^{(95, 96)} Uncertainties regarding future changes in precipitation patterns, and the resultant impacts on productivity and disturbance regimes, are especially challenging. To address these issues and encourage the inclusion of climate change into forestry management decision making, some suggest the use of model simulations,⁽⁹³⁾ whereas others advocate increased communication between researchers and forest managers (see Box 3).

BOX 3: Promoting adaptation in the forest industry⁽⁹⁷⁾

Forest management has a large influence on forest growth, health and composition.⁽⁹⁸⁾ Forests that are subject to management activities are generally considered to be less vulnerable to the impacts of climate change than forests that are not managed, due to the potential for adaptation.⁽⁵⁾ Some characteristics of managed forests may also render them better able to cope with disturbances. For example, during the 1998 ice storm, highly managed fruit trees grown in orchards experienced much less damage than less structured stands of sugar maples.⁽⁷⁸⁾ Management activities, such as the use of subsequent salvage cuttings, may also reduce the degree of long-term damage arising from disturbances such as ice storms.⁽⁹⁹⁾

Maintaining forest health and biodiversity is an important adaptation mechanism, which builds upon existing initiatives for sustainable forest management, such as those listed in Table 4. Criteria for sustainable forest management, as outlined in the Montréal Process of the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, include conservation of biodiversity, maintenance of forest productivity, maintenance of forest ecosystem health, and conservation of soil and water resources.⁽¹⁰⁰⁾ Forests that are managed for these criteria would generally be less vulnerable to disturbances and hence more resilient to climate change. For example, healthy forest stands have been shown to exhibit a stronger and faster recovery from insect disturbances than stressed stands,⁽⁷²⁾ while the conservation of biodiversity and forest integrity would aid in successful species migrations.⁽⁴³⁾

Table 4: Initiatives for sustainable forest management

Sustainable forest management provides a framework into which climate change adaptation can be effectively incorporated. Potential impacts of both climate change and climate change adaptations could be assessed with respect to the sustainability criteria described above, in much the same way as managers currently evaluate the impacts of management activities such as harvest schedules and building roads. In this way, adaptation options for climate change can be developed to fit within existing forest land-use planning systems, rather than being viewed as a new and separate issue.

In some cases, to help preserve forest sustainability, forest managers may assist in tree regeneration. Regeneration may involve replanting native tree species or introducing new species, including exotics and hybrids. It has been suggested that assisted regeneration could be used in the southern boreal forests of western Canada if drier conditions hinder the ability of conifers to regenerate naturally.⁽¹⁰¹⁾ In beach pine forests of British Columbia, genotypes may also need to be redistributed across the landscape in order to maintain forest productivity in the future.⁽⁶⁾ There are many issues related to the use of non-native species, the most important of which concerns the potential for unforeseen consequences, such as accompanying pest problems or loss of native species due to new competitive interactions.

Forest managers may also assist in the migration of forests, by introducing carefully selected tree species to regions beyond their current ranges. In cases such as the Boreal Transition Ecozone, forests may prove to be an ecologically and economically viable alternative to marginally productive agriculture.⁽¹⁰²⁾ New forest cover in this area may be established through either natural forest succession or planting of commercial tree species.⁽¹⁰²⁾ Similar to human-assisted regeneration, there are many concerns regarding assisted migration, due largely to the potential for unpredictable outcomes.

In some cases, biotechnology may play an important role in adaptation to climate change. For example, by adding or removing one or more genes from a species, scientists can develop strains that are better adapted to specific conditions, such as droughts, and more resistant to potential threats, including insect outbreaks and diseases.⁽¹⁰³⁾ Plant hybrids can also be developed with these goals in mind. Hybrid poplars have been successfully introduced in western Canada.⁽¹⁰⁴⁾

Dealing with Disturbances

"Losses due to possible forest decline and modified fire and insect regimes, as well as drought stress in some areas, could challenge the adaptive capacity of the industry." ⁽⁹²⁾

Adjusting to shifts in disturbance regimes may be an important aspect of climate change adaptation. Although focus is generally placed on an increased frequency of disturbances, a decrease in disturbances would also require adaptation. For example, a longer fire cycle in eastern Canada would increase the amount of overmature and old-growth stands, which would require alternative management practices.⁽⁵⁹⁾

Where fire frequency increases, protection priorities may require adjustments so that burns are prevented from damaging smaller, high-value areas.⁽⁶²⁾ Recent work conducted in the Prairie Provinces promotes protection of such areas through the use of 'fire-smart landscapes' (see Box 4). Increased monitoring, improved early warning systems, enhancing forest recovery after fire disturbances, and the use of prescribed burning are other adaptation options to deal with changes in forest fire regimes.⁽¹⁰⁵⁾

BOX 4: Reducing fire extent with fire-smart landscapes⁽¹⁰⁶⁾

Many studies suggest that forest fires will increase in future due to climate change. To reduce fire-related losses in the forestry industry, Hirsch et al.(106) advocate the incorporation of 'fire-smart landscapes' into long-term forest management planning. Fire-smart landscapes use forest management activities, such as harvesting, regeneration and stand tending, to reduce the intensity and spread of wildfire, as well as fire impacts. For example, species with low flammability (e.g., aspen) could be planted adjacent to stands of highly flammable, valuable and highly productive conifers to protect them from large burns. Model simulations suggest that such treatments could substantially reduce the size of forest fires. Size of three simulated fires on current fuel treatment landscape after a 22-hour fire run. Size of three simulated fires on hypothetical fuel treatment landscape after a 22-hour fire run. Note the reduction in area burned using the 'fire-smart' management approach. In addition to reducing losses from forest fires, the study suggests that these fuel treatments may also increase the total annual allowable cut.

Prescribed burning has also been recommended as one potential adaptation option for reducing forest vulnerability to increased insect outbreaks.⁽¹⁰⁵⁾ Several other methods to address future insect outbreaks have also been suggested. For example, nonchemical insecticides can be applied to reduce leaf mortality from insects, thereby allowing the trees to still be harvested at a later date.⁽¹⁰⁷⁾ Another nonchemical insect control option being investigated is the use of baculoviruses. These viruses attack specific pest species, such as the spruce budworm, with minimal consequences for other species and the environment.⁽¹⁰⁸⁾ Adjusting harvesting schedules, so that those stands most vulnerable to insect defoliation would be harvested preferentially, represents yet another method for addressing increased insect outbreaks.⁽¹⁰⁷⁾

Changes in forest fire regimes as a result of climate change would necessitate adjustments in fire management systems. Future changes in fire occurrence would affect budgets, staffing, technologies, equipment needs, warning mechanisms and monitoring systems.⁽¹⁰⁵⁾ Anticipating these changes and increasing interagency cooperation could help to minimize costs and ease the transitions.

Studies on the impacts of past extreme climate events, as well as the response of the forestry sector to these events, can assist in understanding and improving the degree of preparedness for the future. For example, researchers are investigating how the management of woodlots and plantations can be used to reduce vulnerability to ice storms,⁽⁷⁹⁾ and are developing decision-support tools to assist forest managers in dealing with damaged tree stands.⁽¹⁰⁹⁾

Social, Economic and Political Considerations

In evaluating adaptation options, it is necessary to consider the social, economic and political implications of each adaptation. For example, although relocation of forestry operations in response to species migrations is commonly cited as an appropriate adaptation option, several factors may limit its feasibility. Communities, especially First Nations and Métis, tend to have cultural and economic ties to the land and may be unwilling, or unable, to relocate. In addition, moving industrial infrastructure and entire communities would be expensive, with no guarantee of subsequent profits, or that cultural ties to the land would persist in the same way. Furthermore, policies and agreements limit the mobility of many aboriginal communities, potentially limiting the viability of relocation as an adaptation option.⁽⁸⁵⁾

An important component of adaptation is determining who will do the adapting. The forest industry, different levels of governments, communities and individuals would all need to adjust their practices to deal with the impacts of climate change on forests. As these groups will perceive climate change risks and their adaptive capacity in different ways, adaptive responses will vary. In some cases, differing perceptions of risk and adaptation may lead to increased tension between the various groups. Conflicting priorities and mandates could also lead to future problems.

Before implementing adaptation options, the potential impacts on all stakeholders need to be considered. For example, although introducing exotic commercial tree species or hybrids may be desirable to address some climate change impacts, it may not be considered socially and/ or ethically acceptable among some or all of the stakeholders involved.