Quebec's climate has seen significant fluctuations since the end of the last ice age. Climate variations over the past 10 000 years have been reconstructed through the analysis of pollen in lake sediments and peat. From the results of such studies, it is estimated that 6000 years ago (4000 BC), the average temperature was approximately 1°C above that of today.

Temperature change over 10 000 years (Folland et al., 1990 Mann et al. 1999, Environnement Canada)

Significant climate events of the twentieth century in Quebec

Climate change in Quebec over the past 100 years can be studied with more precision than during any other period in history. Studies show that, even over as brief a time span as a century, temperatures have fluctuated significantly. Quebec experienced a warming trend until the early 1940s, followed by a slight cooling until the middle of the 1970s, and then a period of fairly pronounced warming throughout the 1980s. In the years since the 1980s, Quebec weather services have recorded the 10 warmest years of the century.

Global temperature change (Environment, Canada 1993)

A much different future

Powerful computer simulation models called 'general circulation models' (GCMs) are the primary tools used to predict future climatic conditions. The map shows the anticipated difference in air temperature at the surface of the globe between 1910 and 2040. The greatest difference is expected to be seen at high latitudes and in the interior of continents, which is why major temperature variations may be seen in Quebec in the decades to come.

Projected temperature change between 1975-1985 and 2040-2060, from the Canadian model (Hengeveld, 2000)

Did you know?
Basque whalers hunted in the estuary and Gulf of St. Lawrence, using the oil they obtained as fuel, until the seventeenth century. By then, the climate had cooled considerably, leading to the 'Little Ice Age' (from about 1400 to 1850).

Did you know?
The Earth is heating more rapidly than it has at any other time during the past 10 000 years.

Did you know?
The twentieth century was the warmest century in 1200 years, with 1998 and 1999 the warmest years on record.

References

Environment Canada, 1993: A matter of degrees: a primer on global warming; The Environmental Citizenship Series, 89 p.

Folland, C.K., Karl, T.R., and Vinnikov, K., 1990: Observed climate variations and change; in Climate Change: the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Scientific Assessment, Cambridge University Press, London, United Kingdom, p. 195-238.

>Hengeveld, H.G., 2000: Projections for Canada's climate future: a discussion of recent simulations with the Canadian Global Climate Model; Environment Canada, Climate Change Digest 00-01, 27 p.

Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.C., and Hughes, M.K., 1999: Northern hemisphere temperature during the past millennium: inferences, uncertainties, and limitations; Geophysical Research Letters, v. 26, no. 6, p. 759-762.