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Geodynamics Episodic Tremor and Slip (ETS)
Episodic tremor and slip is a new phenomenon discovered in the Cascadia
subduction zone beneath Vancouver Island by scientists with the Geological
Survey of Canada (GSC) . It consists of repeated slow slip events on the
lower portion of the subduction fault, accompanied by unique non-earthquake
tremor-like seismic signals that emanate from the same region.
GPS sites in the Western Canada Deformation Array (WCDA) on southern
Vancouver Island region occasionally reverse their motion (slip), moving seaward
for periods of about two weeks before resuming their longer-term landward motion.
Figure 1
GPS and seismic data showing the occurrence of episodic tremor and slip (ETS)
at Victoria, British Columbia. The blue circles show daily changes in the
east component of position of the continuous GPS site ALBH relative to
Penticton which is considered fixed on the North America plate. The
green line represents long-term eastward motion due to steady deformation
caused by the locked portion of the plate interface on the Cascadia
subduction zone. The red line segments show distinct periods of 14 to 15
months with elevated eastward trends, each punctuated by a 1 to 2-week
reversal of motion that has been modelled by slow slip on the deeper
plate interface. The black graph at the bottom shows the number of
hours within a sliding 10-day window that show distinct, low-frequency,
non-impulsive seismic activity that has been called "tremor". The
correlation of the periods of slow slip with periods of extended
tremor prompted the naming of this phenomena as Episodic Tremor and Slip. |
GSC scientists have also discovered non-earthquake tremor-like seismic
signals have been found to be associated with these events.
Figure 2
Example of seismic records of tremor activity at selected sites. It
is the similarity of the envelope of the seismic signal on many
seismographs that identifies ETS activity. |
The tremor signals occur at the same time and come from the same region as the slip
events. This associated tremor and slip phenomena has been named "Episodic
Tremor and Slip" or ETS activity. These ETS events are not felt by people
and do not cause any damage.
ETS events have important implications for improving earthquake hazard
assessment on the Cascadia subduction zone. If the interpretation as slip on
the lower part of the subduction fault is correct, ETS events generate a
significant increase of stress on the bottom of the currently locked portion
of the fault, where great earthquakes are thought to initiate. This is the
first recognition of a time-varying component to earthquake hazard
assessment along the Cascadia subduction zone. Compared to the steady
year-round stress accumulation, this more rapid stress increase implies that
a large subduction earthquake is more likely to happen during the time of an ETS event.
Based on a review of seismic and GPS data between 1996 and 2004, GSC
scientists have successfully forecast the ETS events in February/March 2003,
July, 2004, and September, 2005 (with an uncertainty of about +/- 2 months).
In order to increase observational data for the study of these forecast ETS
events, GSC scientists, in cooperation with international colleagues, have
augmented existing GSC seismic and GPS networks by deploying temporary suites
of additional instruments.
Further reading on Episode Tremor & Slip |
See also:
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