Farmers
Industry briefing
June 15, 2006
Western Canada
At first glance, the 2006 growing season to date has been similar to last year. Heavy rains the previous fall helped boost soil moisture levels, warm spring weather encouraged early seeding progress and persistent heavy rains in some parts of the Prairies caused a loss in sown area. These are features that common to the current and previous year. The 2006 growing season also looks to be following a pattern of extreme weather variability that has characterized the first decade of the 21st century.
The harvest of 2005 was delayed by heavy rains that deluged the northern and central areas of Alberta and Saskatchewan. These rains left the soil-moisture profile in those areas completely saturated, which is normally a good sign for the upcoming growing season. Winter precipitation across most of Saskatchewan and Manitoba was above normal, with northeastern Saskatchewan reporting significantly above-normal snowfall. Drier conditions prevailed across most of Alberta during the winter, with many areas reporting little to no snow cover.
The entire Prairie region experienced one of the warmest winters on record, which was positive for winter cereal crop survival. Warm temperatures during March and April caused a rapid snowmelt, which led to flooding in parts of northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Concerns about excess soil moisture continued through most of the spring. Compounding the problems this spring was the significant amount of crop in northern Saskatchewan that needed to be harvested before spring seeding could begin.
Warm, dry conditions in April allowed planting to begin earlier than normal in southern Saskatchewan and most of Alberta. These areas reported rapid progress and were nearly complete by the middle of May. Seeing in parts of southern and northeastern Alberta was delayed by heavy rains and wet soils, but crops were mostly sown by the end of May. Central and northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba reported minimal progress during April, with fieldwork beginning by the first week in May. The flooded regions of Saskatchewan and Manitoba continued to report delays through the first half of May.
Rapid seeding progress was made during the third week of May, with even the extremely wet regions beginning to make rapid progress. Heavy rainfall in northern Saskatchewan during the last 10 days of the month stopped seeding activity in the northeastern and north-central growing areas. Scattered rains during the first week of June kept farmers from completing the seeding of the 2006 crop. It is estimated that between 1.0 and 1.2 million acres were not able to be seeded due to excess moisture.
A sharp contrast to the excessive moisture conditions in northern Saskatchewan has been the situation in parts of Alberta and southern Saskatchewan, where dryness was beginning to hurt production potential. However, general precipitation (15 to 50millimetres in these areas over the past week) has improved the outlook for crops that were beginning to show signs of drought stress. More rainfall will be required in these regions to support crop growth in the coming weeks.
Temperatures this spring have been mostly normal or above-normal. Winter wheat crops are one to two weeks ahead of average development due to warm temperatures in April and May. Most of the winter wheat crops in southern growing areas have reached the heading stage and will likely be ready to harvest in late July. Spring wheat crops are also ahead of normal, except in areas where planting was delayed by excess moisture.
The seeded area estimates, comparisons to last year and the March "Intentions of Principal Field Crops Areas" released by Statistics Canada are contained in Table A. Table B shows the yields and resulting production using a weather-based risk model developed by the CWB. For wheat, the weather model indicates yields will most likely fall within the range of 31.7 and 38.1bushels per acre, with the most probable yield being 35.7bushels per acre.
Looking at production based on these modeled yields (Table B), and considering the near-record yields produced last year, total wheat production for Western Canada is expected to drop to 23.6million tonnes from 24.8million tonnes in 2005, with durum production dropping to 4.0million tonnes. Barley production is expected to also drop to 10.5 million tonnes.
World Outlook
Smaller wheat production is expected in the world this year, as several areas are already experiencing production difficulties. World wheat production is currently expected to reach 601.3million tonnes due to production declines in the United States, Ukraine and Russia. A severe drought in the Southern Plains of the U.S. has dramatically dropped production of Hard Red Winter wheat. The dryness extends into the western Corn Belt and is causing some concerns for corn and soybean crops in Nebraska, South Dakota and Iowa.
Rains in eastern Australia during the past week have allowed farmers to resume planting their winter wheat crops. Durum conditions in North Africa are improved over 2005, but hot and dry conditions during the later stages of crop development has kept crops at levels just above the long term average.
Crop conditions in Ukraine and southern Russia are improving, but a reduction in both winter and spring wheat have resulted in a smaller than normal crop. Problems in the region started last fall, when dryness lowered the sown area. Harsh winter conditions caused further losses and cool spring weather slowed development. The cool spring also slowed spring plantings and reduced the area of spring wheat sown in Russia this year.
Table A
| Western Canada sown area (million acres) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intentions | 2005 | 2006 | % Change | |
| 2006 | ||||
| All Wheat | 24.24 | 23.77 | 25.32 | 6.5% |
| Durum | 4.05 | 5.79 | 4.65 | -19.6% |
| Oats | 4.90 | 4.13 | 4.65 | 12.7% |
| Barley | 9.71 | 10.29 | 9.65 | -6.2% |
| Rye | 0.29 | 0.31 | 0.29 | -4.9% |
| Flax | 2.25 | 2.08 | 1.95 | -6.3% |
| Canola | 11.58 | 13.49 | 11.69 | -13.3% |
| Six grains and oilseeds | 52.96 | 54.06 | 53.55 | -0.9% |
Table B
| Western Canada | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Yield (bu/ac) |
Production (million tonnes) |
|||||||
| 10th Percentile | 50th Percentile | 90th Percentile | 2005 Percentile | 10th Percentile | 50th Percentile | 90th Percentile | ||
| All Wheat | 31.7 | 35.7 | 38.1 | 24.8 | 21.0 | 23.6 | 25.2 | |
| Durum | 29.2 | 33.5 | 36.1 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 4.3 | |
| Oats | 61.9 | 65.1 | 67.2 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.8 | |
| Barley | 53.1 | 57.5 | 60.1 | 11.7 | 9.7 | 10.5 | 11.0 | |
| Rye | 31.1 | 34.8 | 36.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | |
| Flax | 17.5 | 20.1 | 21.4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.1 | |
| Canola | 24.8 | 27.3 | 28.5 | 9.6 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 7.4 | |
| Six Grains and Oilseeds | 50.5 | 40.8 | 45.2 | 47.7 | ||||