Backgrounder

Canada and the ACIA

The ACIA confirms what our own science and the people of the Arctic have been telling us for many years: the Canadian Arctic is already experiencing some of the most serious and wide-ranging impacts of climate change seen anywhere.

These impacts are particularly serious and widespread in the western part of the Canadian Arctic, where warming has been the most dramatic of all the regions studied. Average winter temperatures in the region have increased as much as 3-4°C in the past 50 years, and the ACIA projects even larger increases in the region in the century ahead.

The warming temperatures are affecting virtually every aspect of life in the region:

People

In Nunavut, Inuit hunters have noticed the appearance of insects and birds not usually found in their region. Inuvialuit in the western Canadian Arctic are observing an increase in thunderstorms and lightning, previously a very rare occurrence in the region.

As Aboriginal Peoples perceive it, the Arctic is becoming an environment at risk in the sense that sea ice is less stable, unusual weather patterns are occurring, vegetation cover is changing, and particular animals are no longer found in traditional hunting areas during specific seasons. Local landscapes, seascapes, and icescapes are becoming unfamiliar, making people feel like strangers in their own land.

For example, when Inuit families in the western Canadian Arctic go out to camps at lakes for ice fishing and goose hunting in May, they travel by snowmobile, pulling a sled, staying on snow-covered areas or using coastal sea-ice and frozen rivers. However, warmer springs have resulted in earlier, faster snowmelt and river break-up, making access difficult. The availability of some species has changed due to the inability of people to hunt them under changing environmental conditions.

To hunt, catch, and share these foods is the essence of Inuit culture. Thus, a decline in ringed seals and polar bears threatens not only the dietary requirements of the Inuit, but their very way of life.

Some climate models suggest reductions of 50% and even the complete disappearance of summer sea ice in this century. Because ringed seals and polar bears are very unlikely to survive in the absence of summer sea ice, the impact on indigenous communities that depend upon these species is likely to be enormous.

Warming temperatures and thawing ground will also lead to disruption of transportation and industry on land, including oil and gas extraction and forestry, by shortening of the periods during which ice roads and tundra are frozen sufficiently to permit travel. Also, as frozen ground thaws, many existing buildings, roads, pipelines, airports, and industrial facilities are likely to be destabilized, requiring substantial rebuilding, maintenance, and investment.

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The Arctic Coastline

Thinner, less extensive sea ice creates more open water, allowing stronger wave generation by winds, thus increasing wave-induced erosion along arctic shores.

This is already a serious problem in and around Tuktoyaktuk, the major port in the western Canadian Arctic, where erosion is threatening cultural and archeological sites and causing the abandonment of an elementary school, housing, and other buildings.

Successive shoreline protection structures have been rapidly destroyed by storm surges and accompanying waves. Attempts to control erosion at Tuktoyaktuk will become increasingly expensive as the surrounding coastline continues to retreat. The site could ultimately become uninhabitable.

Caribou

The Porcupine Caribou Herd is of particular importance to Aboriginal Peoples in the Yukon and Northwest Territories, as well as in Alaska.

Every spring for generations, the herd has crossed the frozen Porcupine River to its calving grounds in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska. In recent years, as deeper snows and increasing freeze-thaw cycles make their food less accessible, the herd's northern migration has been delayed by increased feeding and travel time. At the same time, river ice is thawing earlier in the spring.

Now when the herd reaches the Porcupine River, the river is no longer frozen. Some cows calve on the south side and have to cross the rushing water with their newborn calves. Thousands of calves have been washed down the river and died, leaving their mothers to proceed without them to the calving grounds.

Meanwhile, the number of Peary caribou on Canada's arctic islands dropped from 26,000 to just 1000 between 1961 and 1997. The situation is serious enough that a number of communities have limited and even banned their subsistence harvests of the species. The decline of Peary caribou appears to have been caused by autumn rains that iced the winter food supply and crusted the snow cover, limiting access to forage.

Ringed seal

The ringed seal is the single most important food source for the Inuit, representing the majority of the food supply in all seasons.

In recent decades, local people have observed that ringed seal pup production has suffered as increased temperatures have led to a reduction and destabilization of the sea ice. These ice changes have also affected the harvest of polar bear, another important food source, because ringed seals are central to a polar bear's diet.

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Polar bears

Polar bears depend on sea ice, where they hunt seals and use ice corridors to move from one area to another. Pregnant females build their winter dens in areas with thick snow cover on land or on sea ice. When the females emerge from their dens with their cubs in springtime, the mothers have not eaten for five to seven months. Their seal hunting success, which depends upon good spring ice conditions, is essential for the family's survival.

The condition of adult polar bears in the Hudson Bay area has declined during the last two decades. The number of live births has also declined, and so has the proportion of first-year cubs in the population. The average weight and number of cubs born to polar bears in the Hudson Bay region dropped by 15% between 1981 and 1998. Polar bears are very unlikely to survive as a species if there is an almost complete loss of summer sea-ice cover, which is projected to occur before the end of this century by some climate models.

Ivory gulls

Major declines have been observed in ivory gull populations, including an estimated 90% reduction in Canada over the past 20 years. The ivory gull nests and breeds on rocky cliffs that offer protection from predators, and flies to the nearby sea ice to fish through cracks in the ice and scavenge on top of the ice. As the sea ice edge retreats further and further from suitable coastal nesting sites, survival becomes more and more difficult for the ivory gull.

Forests

There has been a northward expansion of boreal forest in some areas, as well as significant increases in the frequency and extent of forest fires and unprecedented infestations of insect pests in northern forests.

The spruce bark beetle has killed trees on about 300,000 hectares in the Alsek River corridor in Kluane National Park and in the Shakwak Valley north of Haines Junction since an outbreak was first identified in 1994. This is the largest and most intense – and the most northerly – outbreak of spruce bark beetle ever to affect Canadian trees. The year 2002 was particularly intense, as aerial surveys recorded a 300% increase in the extent of infested areas as well as an increase in the severity of the attack.

Snow

Changing wind patterns are causing the snow to be hard packed. Hunters and travel parties are thus unable to build igloos, which are still commonly relied upon for temporary and emergency shelter. Injuries and deaths have been reported when people caught in sudden storms have not been able to find good snow with which to build shelters. More freezing rain and more frequent freeze-thaw cycles are affecting the ability of reindeer, caribou, musk oxen, and other wildlife to find food in winter, which in turn affects the Indigenous Peoples who depend upon these animals.

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Possible Alternative Economic Opportunities

While finding that economic and social impacts on Aboriginal communities in the circumpolar Arctic are expected to be serious, the ACIA also notes that the changing climate may give rise to new opportunities in the North. Marine access to some arctic resources, including offshore oil and gas and some minerals, is likely to be enhanced by the reduction in sea ice, bringing new opportunities as well as environmental concerns.

The North

The North is a region of particular importance to Canada. In the recent Speech from the Throne, the Government of Canada committed to "develop, in cooperation with its territorial partners, Aboriginal people and other northern residents, the first-ever comprehensive strategy for the North. This northern strategy will foster sustainable economic and human development; protect the northern environment and Canada's sovereignty and security; and promote cooperation with the international circumpolar community." This was reiterated by the Prime Minister in his response, stating that the government "will work with the territories and Aboriginal groups to further develop the economy of the North – and we will do so in a way that sustains the environment and benefits the people."

The Government of Canada has a number of programs and projects directed at climate change research in the North. In addition, Indian and Northern Affairs Canada, with other federal and territorial partners, is working with Aboriginal organizations to disseminate the results of the ACIA to communities and work with them on any impacts they are experiencing. Over the coming months, a series of community/regional visits, some including ACIA scientists and technical experts, will take place.

Canada's role in the assessment

Canada's involvement in the ACIA process was led by Environment Canada's Meteorological Service of Canada, with contributions from several federal departments. The Government of Canada committed some $500,000, primarily to facilitate the involvement of Canadian researchers. In addition, the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis, a Branch of the MSC, was asked to provide climate change scenarios for use in the ACIA process along with only 4 other global modeling centres of high repute.

In all, some 45 Canadians scientists and 30 Canadian experts in traditional knowledge contributed to the ACIA, with Canadians contributing to all but 2 of the chapters of the Assessment. Canadians were the lead authors of four of the ACIA's eighteen chapters:

• Gordon McBean (University of Western Ontario), lead author, Chapter 2, Past and Present Climate
• Terry D. Prowse and Fred Wrona (Environment Canada – National Water Research Institute), and Jim Reist (Fisheries and Oceans Canada), lead authors, Chapter 8, Freshwater Ecosystems
• Shari Fox, (Canadian, currently at Harvard University) co-lead author for Chapter 3 Indigenous Perspectives on Climate
• Christopher Furgal (Laval University), co-lead author, Chapter 15, Human Health.

The complete ACIA Overview "Impacts of a Warming Arctic" is available for download in .pdf format at http://www.acia.uaf.edu/.