Publications: Canada: Grains and Oilseeds Outlook
2006-06-27 | ISSN 1496-967X
Statistics Canada (STC) estimates that the areas seeded to non-durum wheat, oats, corn, mixed grains, flaxseed and soybeans have increased for 2006, while areas for durum wheat, barley, canola, rye and summerfallow have decreased. Crop development and condition is, in general, normal. It is assumed that precipitation will be normal for the growing and harvest periods and that quality will be normal. Trend yields are assumed for both western and eastern Canada, as soil moisture reserves are good in most areas, although there are areas which are too dry and other areas which have excessive moisture. The abandonment rate is expected to be normal. However, in north-eastern Saskatchewan it is estimated that more than 400,000 hectares will not be seeded this year due to excessive moisture, and the AAFC harvested area projections have been adjusted accordingly.
AAFC forecasts that total production of grains and oilseeds in Canada will decline by 6% from 2005-06, to 63 million tonnes (Mt), above the 10-year average of about 60 Mt. In western Canada, production is forecast to decline by 7%, to 47.3 Mt, with eastern Canadian production down by 2%, at 15.5 Mt. Exports and domestic use are expected to increase in 2006-07. Non-durum wheat, canola, feed barley and corn prices are expected to increase from 2005-06, while durum, oat, flaxseed and soybean prices are expected to decrease. Prices will continue to be pressured by the strong Canadian dollar. The major factors to watch are: growing conditions in the US corn belt, US and Canadian spring wheat crop conditions, the biofuel market, ocean freight rates and the Canada/US exchange rate.
Durum
For 2006-07, production is forecast to decrease by 35% due to lower area seeded and yields. This is partly offset by higher carry-in stocks. Supply is forecast to fall by 16% to 7.1 Mt, but remain 8% above the 10-year average. Exports are expected to decrease by 9%, due to increased production in North Africa and the EU, the major importing regions. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall by 27%, but remain 22% above the 10-year average. The Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) Pool Return Outlook (PRO) is below 2005-06 for most grades due to lower demand and the strong Canadian dollar. The discount of No.1 CWAD 11.5 durum to No.1 CWRS 11.5 wheat is projected at $17/t, the largest on record.
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [F] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 2,230 | 2,341 | 1,725 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 2,141 | 2,297 | 1,710 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.32 | 2.58 | 2.24 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 4,962 | 5,915 | 3,825 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 6,752 | 8,436 | 7,126 | |||||||||
| Exports (kt) | 3,218 | 4,050 | 3,700 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 254 | 255 | 260 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 536 | 671 | 566 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 1,013 | 1,086 | 1,026 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 2,521 | 3,300 | 2,400 | |||||||||
| Average Price [f] $/t | 201 | 179 [*] | 175 [**] | |||||||||
Wheat (ex-durum)
Production is forecast to increase by 8%, with the larger harvested area only partly offset by lower expected trend yields. Higher carry-in stocks will also contribute to increased supply. Exports are forecast to increase by 25% due to record production of 2.4 Mt in Ontario and increased supply of high quality wheat in western Canada. Wheat feeding is expected to decline, due to reduced supplies of feed wheat. Carry-out stocks are expected to decline by 10%, to a level close to the 10-year average. The CWB PRO for most grades/classes is up from 2005-06 due to higher world prices, which more than offset the strong Canadian dollar. However, the premiums for high protein No.1 CWRS are forecast to decrease due to the expected better quality of the 2006 Canadian and US HRS crops.
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [F] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 8,169 | 7,753 | 9,025 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 7,722 | 7,530 | 8,700 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.71 | 2.77 | 2.58 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 20,898 | 20,860 | 22,475 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 13 | 19 | 10 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 25,203 | 26,351 | 28,685 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 11,593 | 12,000 | 15,000 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 2,845 | 2,870 | 3,100 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 4,521 | 4,385 | 4,125 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 8,138 | 8,151 | 8,085 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 5,471 | 6,200 | 5,600 | |||||||||
| Average Price [f] $/t | 190 | 186 [*] | 192 [**] | |||||||||
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [F] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 10,399 | 10,094 | 10,750 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 9,862 | 9,826 | 10,410 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.62 | 2.72 | 2.53 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 25,860 | 26,775 | 26,300 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 14 | 20 | 11 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 31,955 | 34,787 | 35,811 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 14,812 | 16,050 | 18,700 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 3,099 | 3,125 | 3,360 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 5,056 | 5,056 | 4,691 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 9,151 | 9,237 | 9,111 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 7,992 | 9,500 | 8,000 | |||||||||
| Average Price $/t | ||||||||||||
Barley
Production is forecast to decrease by 12% due to lower area and yields. Lower carry-in stocks will also contribute to a 13% decrease in supply. Exports are forecast to decrease by 19%, as lower feed barley exports are only partially offset by higher exports of malting barley. Despite lower exports and domestic feed use, carry-out stocks are forecast to fall significantly. The average off-Board feed barley price (No.1 CW, in-store Lethbridge) is forecast to increase by $20/t from 2005-06 to $130/t. The CWB PRO for No. 1 CW feed barley for Pool A in 2006-07 is $113/t, versus $122/t for Pool B in 2005-06. The CWB PRO for SS2R malting barley is $161/t versus $170/t for 2005-06, due to strong export competition from Australia.
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [F] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 4,678 | 4,440 | 4,090 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 4,050 | 3,889 | 3,510 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 3.26 | 3.21 | 3.11 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 13,186 | 12,481 | 10,930 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 83 | 45 | 30 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 15,371 | 16,015 | 13,960 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 1,863 | 2,700 | 2,200 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 268 | 260 | 270 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 9,358 | 9,650 | 9,085 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 10,019 | 10,315 | 9,760 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 3,489 | 3,000 | 2,000 | |||||||||
| Average Price [f] $/t | 112 | 105-115 | 120-140 | |||||||||
Corn
Production is forecast to decrease by 6% as a result of lower yields. Imports are forecast to increase significantly from 2005-06, as a result of lower domestic supply and strong demand for animal feed and ethanol. Carry-out stocks are forecast to drop by 22%. The average price at Chatham elevator is forecast to increase by $20/t due to higher US corn prices.
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [F] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 1,185 | 1,124 | 1,135 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 1,072 | 1,096 | 1,105 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 8.24 | 8.63 | 8.01 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 8,837 | 9,461 | 8,855 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 2,422 | 1,600 | 2,900 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 12,401 | 12,862 | 13,555 | |||||||||
| Exports (kt) | 242 | 250 | 200 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 2,395 | 2,500 | 3,300 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 7,951 | 8,297 | 8,640 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 10,358 | 10,812 | 11,955 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 1,802 | 1,800 | 1,400 | |||||||||
| Average Price [f] $/t | 100 | 90-110 | 110-130 | |||||||||
Oats
Production is forecast to increase by 17% due to larger area and a return to normal abandonment rates. Supply is expected to increase as higher production more than offsets lower carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to rise marginally from 2005-06, as a result of strong US import demand. Although feed use is expected to rise significantly, carry-out stocks are projected to rise by 22%. Chicago Board of Trade oat nearby futures prices are forecast to decrease by CAN$15/t from 2005-06 to CAN$125/t, narrowing the US price premium for oats over corn.
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [F] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 1,995 | 1,853 | 2,205 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 1,315 | 1,326 | 1,555 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.80 | 2.59 | 2.57 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 3,683 | 3,432 | 4,000 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 26 | 15 | 10 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 4,497 | 4,435 | 4,910 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 1,675 | 1,700 | 1,750 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 118 | 140 | 140 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 1,560 | 1,525 | 1,745 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 1,834 | 1,835 | 2,060 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 988 | 900 | 1,100 | |||||||||
| Average Price [f] $/t | 131 | 135-145 | 115-135 | |||||||||
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [F] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 284 | 226 | 205 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 165 | 148 | 134 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.53 | 2.42 | 2.24 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 418 | 359 | 300 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 487 | 505 | 461 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 122 | 120 | 110 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 48 | 48 | 48 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 155 | 160 | 156 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 220 | 225 | 221 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 145 | 160 | 130 | |||||||||
| Average Price [f] $/t | 69 | 70-80 | 80-100 | |||||||||
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [F] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 220 | 209 | 230 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 111 | 109 | 121 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.87 | 2.78 | 2.85 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 318 | 303 | 345 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 318 | 303 | 345 | |||||||||
| Exports (kt) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 318 | 303 | 345 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 318 | 303 | 345 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| Average Price $/t | ||||||||||||
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [F] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 8,362 | 7,852 | 7,865 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 6,713 | 6,568 | 6,425 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 3.94 | 3.96 | 3.80 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 26,442 | 26,036 | 24,430 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 2,531 | 1,661 | 2,941 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 33,074 | 34,121 | 33,231 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 3,902 | 4,770 | 4,260 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 2,828 | 2,948 | 3,758 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 19,342 | 19,936 | 19,971 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 22,749 | 23,491 | 24,341 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 6,424 | 5,860 | 4,630 | |||||||||
| Average Price $/t | ||||||||||||
Canola
Production is forecast to decrease by 16% to 8.1 Mt because of slightly lower area and yields. Supply is expected to decrease by 6%, but remain historically high, due to burdensome carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to remain at the record setting pace of 2005-06 largely due to reduced competition from the EU-25 and increased European bio-diesel production. Domestic crush is forecast to rise slightly following expansions to some processing plants. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall but will remain significantly above the 10 year average. Prices are expected to rise from the low of 2005-06, but will be pressured by lower US soyoil prices.
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [F] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 5,319 | 5,491 | 5,420 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 4,938 | 5,283 | 5,156 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 1.57 | 1.83 | 1.58 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 7,728 | 9,660 | 8,125 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 108 | 125 | 150 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 8,444 | 11,415 | 10,775 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 3,412 | 5,000 | 5,000 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 3,031 | 3,400 | 3,450 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 328 | 470 | 480 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 3,403 | 3,915 | 3,975 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 1,629 | 2,500 | 1,800 | |||||||||
| Average Price [f] $/t | 309 | 270-290 | 270-310 | |||||||||
Flaxseed (excluding solin)
Production is forecast to decrease by 6% due to lower yields. Supply is expected to rise sharply because of burdensome carry-in stocks resulting from high production in 2005-06 and low EU imports. Although exports and total domestic use are forecast to rise, carry-out stocks are expected to increase to a burdensome 0.75 Mt versus the 10-year average of 0.2 Mt. As a result, prices are forecast to decline.
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [F] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 728 | 842 | 858 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 528 | 803 | 800 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 0.98 | 1.35 | 1.26 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 517 | 1,082 | 1,010 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 39 | 40 | 20 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 648 | 1,152 | 1,530 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 468 | 425 | 550 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | n/a | n/a | n/a | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | n/a | n/a | n/a | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 151 | 227 | 230 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 30 | 500 | 750 | |||||||||
| Average Price [f] $/t | n/a | 275-285 | 225-265 | |||||||||
Soybeans
Production is forecast to decrease by 6%, as lower yields more than offset the rise in area. Supply is forecast to decrease as reduced output more than offsets the projected rise in imports and carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to increase to a record high, while domestic crush increases slightly from 2005-06. Although carry-out stocks are forecast to fall, prices are expected to pressure by lower US soybean prices.
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [F] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 1,229 | 1,176 | 1,210 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 1,178 | 1,169 | 1,197 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.59 | 2.70 | 2.48 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 3,048 | 3,161 | 2,970 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 393 | 300 | 350 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 3,581 | 3,731 | 3,620 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 1,122 | 1,250 | 1,350 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 1,610 | 1,600 | 1,650 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 457 | 461 | 270 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 2,190 | 2,181 | 2,020 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 270 | 300 | 250 | |||||||||
| Average Price [f] $/t | 248 | 215-225 | 195-235 | |||||||||
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [F] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 7,277 | 7,510 | 7,487 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 6,643 | 7,255 | 7,154 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 1.70 | 1.92 | 1.69 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 11,293 | 13,904 | 12,105 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 540 | 465 | 520 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 12,674 | 16,298 | 15,925 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 5,002 | 6,675 | 6,900 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use [e] (kt) | 4,641 | 5,000 | 5,100 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 927 | 931 | 750 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 5,743 | 6,323 | 6,225 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 1,929 | 3,300 | 2,800 | |||||||||
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [F] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 26,038 | 25,456 | 26,103 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 23,219 | 23,650 | 23,989 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.74 | 2.82 | 2.62 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 63,596 | 66,715 | 62,835 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 3,085 | 2,146 | 3,472 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 77,703 | 85,206 | 84,967 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 23,715 | 27,495 | 29,860 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use [e] (kt) | 10,568 | 11,073 | 12,218 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 25,325 | 25,923 | 25,412 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 37,643 | 39,050 | 39,677 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 16,345 | 18,660 | 15,430 | |||||||||
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| Date Modified: 2006-12-08 |
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