Publications: Canada: Grains and Oilseeds Outlook
2006-08-04 | ISSN 1496-967X
AAFC forecasts that total production of grains and oilseeds in Canada will decline by 8% from 2005-06, to 61 million tonnes (Mt), slightly above the 10-year average. While crops got off to a good start in the spring because of the early seeding and good soil moisture, the weather subsequently turned hot and dry across most of the Prairies. Crop development is generally ahead of normal. Yields are expected to be at trend to slightly below trend in western Canada. Quality of all crops is expected to be above average, with a better than normal grade distribution. Protein levels in wheat and barley are expected to be higher than average, while canola and flaxseed oil content may be below normal. In eastern Canada, the weather has been hot but moisture has generally been adequate, and yield prospects are good.
In western Canada, production is forecast to decline by 10%, to 46 Mt, with eastern Canadian production down by 3%, at 15 Mt. Domestic use is expected to increase in 2006-07 due to increased ethanol production. Exports are also expected to increase by 10%, due mainly to higher exports of non-durum wheat. Prices for all crops are expected to be similar to or higher than in 2005-06, except for flaxseed. Prices will continue to be pressured by the strong Canadian dollar. The major factors to watch are: US and Canadian crop development and harvest conditions, the bio-fuel market, ocean freight rates and the Canada/US exchange rate.
Durum
Production is forecast to fall by over 40% due to lower area and yields. This is partly offset by the record 3.3 Mt carry-in stocks, but supply is expected to decline by 19%. Exports are forecast to decrease by 10% due to lower demand from North Africa and the EU, which will be partly offset by increased imports from the US. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall by 36%, but remain slightly above the 10-year average. The Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) Pool Return Outlook (PRO) is rising due to the declining production prospects for North America, and is now slightly higher than for 2005-06. The discount of No.1 CWAD 11.5 to No.1 CWRS 11.5 is projected at a record $18/t.
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [P] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 2,230 | 2,341 | 1,725 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 2,141 | 2,297 | 1,720 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.32 | 2.58 | 2.03 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 4,962 | 5,915 | 3,500 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 6,752 | 8,436 | 6,801 | |||||||||
| Exports (kt) | 3,218 | 4,100 | 3,700 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 254 | 255 | 260 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 536 | 621 | 511 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 1,013 | 1,036 | 1,001 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 2,521 | 3,300 | 2,100 | |||||||||
| Average Price [f] $/t | 201 | 181 [*] | 183 [*] | |||||||||
Wheat (ex-durum)
For 2006-07, production is forecast to increase by 4%, with the 17% larger harvested area largely offset by lower expected yields. Supply is expected to rise by 7%, however, due to higher carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to increase by 30% due to record Ontario production of 2.4 Mt, increased supplies of good quality wheat in western Canada and reduced competition from other exporters. Domestic use is expected to decline, with reduced feed use partly offset by sharply higher industrial use for ethanol production. Carry-out stocks are expected to decline by 20%. The CWB PRO is now $10 to $25/t above 2005‑06 for all milling grades. The increases are smallest for No.1 CWRS, as quality and protein premiums are forecast to decrease due to the expected better quality of the 2006 Canadian and US hard red spring wheat crops.
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [P] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 8,169 | 7,753 | 9,025 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 7,722 | 7,530 | 8,800 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.71 | 2.77 | 2.45 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 20,898 | 20,860 | 21,600 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 13 | 20 | 14 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 25,203 | 26,352 | 28,114 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 11,593 | 11,500 | 15,000 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 2,845 | 2,870 | 3,100 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 4,521 | 4,585 | 3,950 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 8,138 | 8,352 | 7,914 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 5,471 | 6,500 | 5,200 | |||||||||
| Average Price [f] $/t | 190 | 183 [*] | 201 [*] | |||||||||
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [P] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 10,399 | 10,094 | 10,750 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 9,862 | 9,826 | 10,520 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.62 | 2.72 | 2.39 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 25,860 | 26,775 | 25,100 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 14 | 21 | 15 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 31,955 | 34,788 | 34,915 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 14,812 | 15,600 | 18,700 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 3,099 | 3,125 | 3,360 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 5,056 | 5,206 | 4,461 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 9,151 | 9,388 | 8,915 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 7,992 | 9,800 | 7,300 | |||||||||
| Average Price $/t | ||||||||||||
Barley
Production is forecast to decrease by 15%, due to lower area and yields. Supply is expected to fall by 13%. Exports are forecast to decrease by 8%, as lower feed barley exports are only partially offset by higher exports of malting barley. Despite lower exports and domestic feed use, carry-out stocks are forecast to fall significantly. The average off-Board feed barley price (No.1 CW, in-store Lethbridge) is forecast to increase by $20/t from 2005-06. The CWB PRO for No. 1 CW feed barley for Pool A in 2006-07 is $124/t, vs. $125/t for Pool A in 2005-06. The CWB PRO for SS2R malting barley is $174/t vs. $171/t for 2005-06, due to lower expected exportable supply in Australia and strong import demand from the US.
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [P] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 4,678 | 4,440 | 4,090 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 4,050 | 3,889 | 3,510 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 3.26 | 3.21 | 3.03 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 13,186 | 12,481 | 10,630 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 83 | 50 | 30 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 15,371 | 16,020 | 13,960 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 1,863 | 2,500 | 2,300 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 268 | 260 | 270 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 9,358 | 9,555 | 9,185 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 10,019 | 10,220 | 9,860 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 3,489 | 3,300 | 1,800 | |||||||||
| Average Price [f] $/t | 112 | 110 | 120-140 | |||||||||
Corn
Production is forecast to decrease by 8%, due to lower yields. Imports are forecast to increase significantly from 2005-06, as a result of lower domestic supply, and strong demand for animal feed and ethanol. Carry-out stocks are forecast to drop by 22%. The average price at Chatham elevator is forecast to increase by $25/t due to higher US corn prices.
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [P] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 1,185 | 1,124 | 1,135 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 1,072 | 1,096 | 1,105 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 8.24 | 8.63 | 7.91 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 8,837 | 9,461 | 8,740 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 2,422 | 1,600 | 3,200 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 12,401 | 12,862 | 13,740 | |||||||||
| Exports (kt) | 242 | 300 | 200 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 2,395 | 2,500 | 3,300 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 7,951 | 8,247 | 8,825 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 10,358 | 10,762 | 12,140 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 1,802 | 1,800 | 1,400 | |||||||||
| Average Price [f] $/t | 100 | 90-100 | 110-130 | |||||||||
Oats
Production is forecast to increase by 12%, due to larger area and a return to normal abandonment rates. Supply is expected to increase, as higher production more than offsets lower carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to rise marginally from 2005-06, as a result of strong US import demand. Although feed use is expected to rise significantly, carry-out stocks are projected to rise by 11%. Chicago Board of Trade oat nearby futures prices are forecast to remain unchanged from 2005-06, narrowing the US price premium for oats over corn.
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [P] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 1,995 | 1,853 | 2,205 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 1,315 | 1,326 | 1,555 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.80 | 2.59 | 2.47 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 3,683 | 3,432 | 3,845 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 26 | 17 | 10 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 4,497 | 4,437 | 4,755 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 1,675 | 1,700 | 1,750 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 118 | 140 | 140 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 1,560 | 1,527 | 1,690 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 1,834 | 1,837 | 2,005 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 988 | 900 | 1,000 | |||||||||
| Average Price [f] $/t | 131 | 144 | 135-155 | |||||||||
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [P] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 284 | 226 | 205 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 165 | 148 | 134 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.53 | 2.42 | 2.31 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 418 | 359 | 310 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 487 | 505 | 471 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 122 | 123 | 110 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 48 | 48 | 48 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 155 | 157 | 156 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 220 | 222 | 221 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 145 | 160 | 140 | |||||||||
| Average Price [f] $/t | 68 | 81 | 80-100 | |||||||||
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [P] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 220 | 209 | 230 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 111 | 109 | 121 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.87 | 2.78 | 2.81 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 318 | 303 | 340 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 318 | 303 | 340 | |||||||||
| Exports (kt) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 318 | 303 | 340 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 318 | 303 | 340 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| Average Price $/t | ||||||||||||
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [P] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 8,362 | 7,852 | 7,865 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 6,713 | 6,568 | 6,425 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 3.94 | 3.96 | 3.71 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 26,442 | 26,036 | 23,865 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 2,531 | 1,668 | 3,241 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 33,074 | 34,128 | 33,266 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 3,902 | 4,623 | 4,360 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 2,828 | 2,948 | 3,758 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 19,342 | 19,790 | 20,196 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 22,749 | 23,345 | 24,566 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 6,424 | 6,160 | 4,340 | |||||||||
| Average Price $/t | ||||||||||||
Canola
Production is forecast to decrease by 16% to 8.1 Mt, as yields are pressured by hot and dry weather. Supply is expected to decrease by 9%, but remain historically high, due to burdensome carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to decline slightly from the record setting pace of 2005-06 as a result of tighter supplies. Domestic crush is forecast to rise slightly following the expansion of some processing plants, although the recently announced new plants are not expected to open until 2007-08. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall, but will remain significantly above the 10 year average. Prices are expected to rise from the low of 2005-06, but remain under pressure from low US soybean prices and strong Canadian dollar.
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [P] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 5,319 | 5,491 | 5,420 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 4,938 | 5,283 | 5,156 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 1.57 | 1.83 | 1.58 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 7,728 | 9,660 | 8,125 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 108 | 125 | 150 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 8,444 | 11,415 | 10,425 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 3,412 | 5,350 | 5,000 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 3,031 | 3,400 | 3,450 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 328 | 470 | 480 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 3,403 | 3,915 | 3,975 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 1,629 | 2,150 | 1,450 | |||||||||
| Average Price [f] $/t | 309 | 278 | 295-325 | |||||||||
Flaxseed (excluding solin)
Production is forecast to decrease by 7%, due to lower yields. Supply is expected to rise sharply because of burdensome carry-in stocks resulting from high production in 2005-06 and low EU imports. Although exports and total domestic use are forecast to rise, carry-out stocks are expected to increase to a burdensome 0.73 Mt vs. the 10-year average of 0.2 Mt. As a result, prices are forecast to decline.
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [P] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 728 | 842 | 858 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 528 | 803 | 800 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 0.98 | 1.35 | 1.26 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 517 | 1,082 | 1,010 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 39 | 40 | 20 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 648 | 1,152 | 1,505 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 468 | 450 | 550 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | n/a | n/a | n/a | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | n/a | n/a | n/a | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 151 | 227 | 230 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 30 | 475 | 725 | |||||||||
| Average Price [f] $/t | n/a | 276 | 225-265 | |||||||||
Soybeans
Production is forecast to decrease by 6%, as lower yields more than offset the rise in area. Supply is forecast to decrease, as reduced output more than offsets the projected rise in imports and carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to increase to a record high, while domestic crush increases slightly from 2005-06. Although carry-out stocks are forecast to fall, prices are expected to be pressured by lower US soybean prices.
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [P] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 1,229 | 1,176 | 1,210 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 1,178 | 1,169 | 1,197 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.59 | 2.70 | 2.48 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 3,048 | 3,161 | 2,970 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 393 | 300 | 350 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 3,581 | 3,731 | 3,620 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 1,122 | 1,250 | 1,350 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 1,610 | 1,600 | 1,650 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 457 | 461 | 270 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 2,190 | 2,181 | 2,020 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 270 | 300 | 250 | |||||||||
| Average Price [f] $/t | 248 | 215-225 | 200-240 | |||||||||
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [P] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 7,277 | 7,510 | 7,487 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 6,643 | 7,255 | 7,154 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 1.70 | 1.92 | 1.69 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 11,293 | 13,904 | 12,105 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 540 | 465 | 520 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 12,674 | 16,298 | 15,550 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 5,002 | 7,050 | 6,900 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use [e] (kt) | 4,641 | 5,000 | 5,100 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 927 | 931 | 750 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 5,743 | 6,323 | 6,225 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 1,929 | 2,925 | 2,425 | |||||||||
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [P] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 26,038 | 25,456 | 26,103 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 23,219 | 23,650 | 24,099 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.74 | 2.82 | 2.53 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 63,596 | 66,715 | 61,070 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 3,085 | 2,154 | 3,776 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 77,703 | 85,214 | 83,731 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 23,715 | 27,273 | 29,960 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use [e] (kt) | 10,568 | 11,073 | 12,218 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 25,325 | 25,927 | 25,407 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 37,643 | 39,055 | 39,706 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 16,345 | 18,885 | 14,065 | |||||||||
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| Date Modified: 2006-12-08 |
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