Publications: Canada: Grains and Oilseeds Outlook
2006-09-01 | ISSN 1496-967X
For 2006-07, the production of grains and oilseeds in Canada is estimated to decrease to 61.7 million tonnes (Mt), from 66.7 Mt in 2005-06, versus the 10-year average of 60 Mt, based on Statistics Canada's (STC) "July 31 Estimate of Production of Principal Field Crops". On average, yields are estimated to be about 9% below 2005-06. Harvest progress is ahead of 2005-06 and ahead of normal. Quality of all crops is expected to be above average, with a better than normal grade distribution. In western Canada, production is estimated to decrease by 10% from 2005-06, to 45.6 Mt as lower yields more-than offset higher harvested area. In eastern Canada, production is estimated to rise by 1% to 16.1 Mt due to higher yields.
Total domestic supply of grains and oilseeds in Canada is forecast to decrease by 2% from 2005-06, as lower production more than offsets the higher carry-in stocks. Exports and total domestic use are forecast to increase. Carry-out stocks are expected to decrease by about 25% to near-normal levels. Prices in Canada for all crops will continue to be pressured by the strong Canadian dollar but are expected to be higher than in 2005-06, except for flaxseed and soybeans. The major factors to watch are: US and Canadian crop development and harvest conditions, the biofuel market, ocean freight rates and exchange rates.
Durum
Production is forecast to fall by 42% due to lower area and yields. However, supply is expected to decrease by only 20% due to the record 3.3 Mt carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to decrease due to lower demand from North Africa and the EU, which will be partly offset by higher imports from the US. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall but remain slightly above the 10-year average. The Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) Pool Return Outlook (PRO) is rising from earlier expectations due to the declining production prospects for North America, and is now 4% higher than 2005-06. The discount of No.1 CWAD 11.5 to No.1 CWRS 11.5 is projected at a record $12/t.
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [P] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 2,230 | 2,341 | 1,724 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 2,141 | 2,297 | 1,706 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.32 | 2.58 | 2.00 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 4,962 | 5,915 | 3,418 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 6,752 | 8,436 | 6,719 | |||||||||
| Exports (kt) | 3,218 | 4,100 | 3,800 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 254 | 255 | 260 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 536 | 621 | 469 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 1,013 | 1,036 | 919 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 2,521 | 3,300 | 2,000 | |||||||||
| Average Price [f] $/t | 201 | 181 [*] | 189 [**] | |||||||||
Wheat (excluding durum)
For 2006-07, production is forecast to increase by 8%, as increased area harvested more-than offsets the lower yields. Supply is expected to rise by 10%, supported by higher carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to increase by 30%, due to increased supplies of good quality wheat in western Canada, record Ontario production of 2.7 Mt and reduced competition from other exporters. Industrial use is expected to rise due to increased ethanol production but feed use is forecast to decrease because of the improved quality of the wheat crop. Carry-out stocks are expected to decline by 11%. The CWB PRO for high protein Nos. 1 and 2 CWRS was lowered from the previous month, due to falling protein premiums resulting from the good quality of the US and Canadian crops, but returns are expected to be well above 2005-06 for all grades.
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [P] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 8,169 | 7,753 | 8,953 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 7,722 | 7,530 | 8,825 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.71 | 2.77 | 2.55 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 20,898 | 20,860 | 22,507 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 13 | 20 | 19 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 25,203 | 26,352 | 29,026 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 11,593 | 11,500 | 15,000 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 2,845 | 2,870 | 3,100 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 4,521 | 4,585 | 4,280 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 8,138 | 8,352 | 8,226 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 5,471 | 6,500 | 5,800 | |||||||||
| Average Price [f] $/t | 190 | 183 [*] | 201 [**] | |||||||||
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [P] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 10,399 | 10,094 | 10,677 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 9,862 | 9,826 | 10,531 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.62 | 2.72 | 2.46 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 25,860 | 26,775 | 25,925 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 14 | 21 | 20 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 31,955 | 34,788 | 35,745 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 14,812 | 15,600 | 18,800 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 3,099 | 3,125 | 3,360 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 5,056 | 5,206 | 4,749 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 9,151 | 9,388 | 9,145 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 7,992 | 9,800 | 7,800 | |||||||||
| Average Price $/t | ||||||||||||
Barley
Production is forecast to decrease by 18%, due to lower area and yields. Supply is expected to fall by 15%. Exports are forecast to decrease by 14%, as lower feed barley exports are only partially offset by higher exports of malting barley. Despite lower exports and domestic feed use, carry-out stocks are forecast to fall significantly. The average off-Board feed barley price (No.1 CW, in-store Lethbridge) is forecast to increase by $20/t from 2005-06. The CWB PRO for No. 1 CW feed barley for Pool A in 2006-07 is $129/t, versus $127/t for Pool B in 2005-06. The CWB PRO for Special Select Two Row (SS2R) malting barley is $179/t versus $171/t for 2005-06, due to lower expected exportable supply in Australia and strong import demand from the US.
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [P] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 4,678 | 4,440 | 3,868 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 4,050 | 3,889 | 3,435 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 3.26 | 3.21 | 2.99 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 13,186 | 12,481 | 10,287 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 83 | 44 | 30 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 15,371 | 16,014 | 13,717 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 1,863 | 2,500 | 2,150 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 268 | 250 | 300 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 9,358 | 9,459 | 9,062 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 10,019 | 10,114 | 9,767 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 3,489 | 3,400 | 1,800 | |||||||||
| Average Price [f] $/t | 112 | 110 | 120-140 | |||||||||
Corn
Production is forecast to decrease by 5% due to lower yields. Imports are forecast to increase significantly from 2005-06, as a result of lower domestic supply, and strong demand for animal feed and ethanol. Carry-out stocks are forecast to drop by 25%. The average price at Chatham elevator is forecast to increase by about 20% due to higher US corn prices.
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [P] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 1,185 | 1,124 | 1,132 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 1,072 | 1,096 | 1,110 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 8.24 | 8.63 | 8.07 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 8,837 | 9,461 | 8,960 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 2,419 | 1,800 | 2,500 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 12,399 | 13,062 | 13,460 | |||||||||
| Exports (kt) | 229 | 275 | 200 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 2,395 | 2,600 | 3,300 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 7,961 | 8,172 | 8,445 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 10,368 | 10,787 | 11,760 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 1,802 | 2,000 | 1,500 | |||||||||
| Average Price [f] $/t | 100 | 95-100 | 110-130 | |||||||||
Oats
Production is forecast to increase by 10% due to higher harvested area. Supply is expected to increase, as higher production more than offsets lower carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to rise slightly from 2005-06, as a result of strong US import demand. Feed use is expected to rise by 9%. Carry-out stocks are projected to be the same as 2005-06. The average Chicago Board of Trade oat nearby futures price is forecast to remain unchanged from 2005-06, narrowing the US price premium for oats over corn.
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [P] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 1,995 | 1,853 | 2,002 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 1,315 | 1,326 | 1,521 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.80 | 2.59 | 2.48 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 3,683 | 3,432 | 3,776 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 26 | 19 | 10 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 4,497 | 4,439 | 4,686 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 1,675 | 1,700 | 1,800 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 118 | 140 | 140 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 1,560 | 1,529 | 1,671 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 1,834 | 1,839 | 1,986 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 988 | 900 | 900 | |||||||||
| Average Price [f] $/t | 131 | 144 | 135-155 | |||||||||
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [P] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 284 | 226 | 149 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 165 | 148 | 138 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.53 | 2.42 | 2.29 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 418 | 359 | 316 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 487 | 505 | 477 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 122 | 123 | 110 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 48 | 48 | 48 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 155 | 157 | 162 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 220 | 222 | 227 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 145 | 160 | 140 | |||||||||
| Average Price [f] $/t | 68 | 81 | 80-100 | |||||||||
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [P] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 220 | 209 | 232 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 111 | 109 | 113 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.87 | 2.78 | 2.80 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 318 | 303 | 316 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 318 | 303 | 316 | |||||||||
| Exports (kt) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 318 | 303 | 316 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 318 | 303 | 316 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| Average Price $/t | ||||||||||||
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [P] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 8,362 | 7,852 | 7,383 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 6,713 | 6,568 | 6,317 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 3.94 | 3.96 | 3.74 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 26,442 | 26,036 | 23,655 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 2,528 | 1,864 | 2,541 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 33,071 | 34,324 | 32,656 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 3,889 | 4,598 | 4,260 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 2,828 | 3,038 | 3,788 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 19,352 | 19,621 | 19,656 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 22,759 | 23,266 | 24,056 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 6,424 | 6,460 | 4,340 | |||||||||
| Average Price $/t | ||||||||||||
Canola
Production is forecast to decrease by 17% to 8.0 Mt, as yields are pressured by hot and dry weather. Supply is expected to decrease by 10%, but remain historically high, due to burdensome carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to decline slightly from 2005-06 record of 5.4 Mt as a result of lower supplies. Domestic crush is forecast to rise slightly following the expansion of some processing plants, with many of the recently announced plants not expected to begin operations until 2007-08. Carryout stocks are forecast to fall sharply, but will remain significantly above the 10 year average. Prices are expected to rise from the low of 2005- 06, but remain under pressure from low US soybean prices.
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [P] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 5,319 | 5,491 | 5,323 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 4,938 | 5,283 | 5,239 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 1.57 | 1.83 | 1.52 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 7,728 | 9,660 | 7,977 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 108 | 125 | 150 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 8,444 | 11,415 | 10,277 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 3,412 | 5,350 | 5,000 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 3,031 | 3,423 | 3,450 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 328 | 447 | 482 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 3,403 | 3,915 | 3,977 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 1,629 | 2,150 | 1,300 | |||||||||
| Average Price [f] $/t | 309 | 278 | 285-315 | |||||||||
Flaxseed (excluding solin)
Production is forecast to decrease by 10% due to lower yields. However, supplies are expected to rise sharply because of burdensome carry-in stocks caused by the high production in 2005-06. Although exports and total domestic use are forecast to rise, carry-out stocks are expected to increase to a burdensome 0.78 Mt versus the 10-year average of 0.2 Mt. As a result, prices are forecast to decline.
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [P] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 728 | 842 | 838 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 528 | 803 | 833 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 0.98 | 1.35 | 1.17 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 517 | 1,082 | 978 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 39 | 40 | 20 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 648 | 1,152 | 1,523 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 468 | 450 | 550 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | n/a | n/a | n/a | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | n/a | n/a | n/a | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 151 | 177 | 198 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 30 | 525 | 775 | |||||||||
| Average Price [f] $/t | n/a | 276 | 240-280 | |||||||||
Soybeans
Production is forecast to be similar to 2005-06 as higher area is offset by lower yields. Supply is forecast to increase, as higher carry-in stocks morethan offset lower imports. Exports are forecast to increase to a record high on strength of market development efforts for edible soybeans. Domestic crush is expected to increase slightly. Prices are expected to decline under pressure from higher carry-out stocks and lower US soybean prices.
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [P] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 1,229 | 1,176 | 1,213 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 1,178 | 1,169 | 1,211 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.59 | 2.70 | 2.61 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 3,048 | 3,161 | 3,163 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 393 | 300 | 250 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 3,581 | 3,731 | 3,856 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 1,122 | 1,250 | 1,350 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use (kt) | 1,610 | 1,458 | 1,550 | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 457 | 461 | 356 | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 2,190 | 2,039 | 2,006 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 270 | 442 | 500 | |||||||||
| Average Price [f] $/t | 248 | 215-225 | 190-230 | |||||||||
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [P] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 7,277 | 7,510 | 7,373 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 6,643 | 7,255 | 7,283 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 1.70 | 1.92 | 1.66 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 11,293 | 13,904 | 12,118 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 540 | 465 | 420 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 12,674 | 16,298 | 15,656 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 5,002 | 7,050 | 6,900 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use [e] (kt) | n/a | n/a | n/a | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | n/a | n/a | n/a | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 5,743 | 6,130 | 6,181 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 1,929 | 3,118 | 2,575 | |||||||||
| Crop Year [a] | 2004-2005 | 2005-2006 [P] | 2006-2007 [F] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||
| Seeded Area (kha) | 26,038 | 25,456 | 25,433 | |||||||||
| Harvested Area (kha) | 23,219 | 23,650 | 24,131 | |||||||||
| Yield (t/ha) | 2.74 | 2.82 | 2.56 | |||||||||
| Production (kt) | 63,596 | 66,715 | 61,698 | |||||||||
| Imports [b] (kt) | 3,082 | 2,350 | 2,981 | |||||||||
| Total Supply (kt) | 77,700 | 85,410 | 84,057 | |||||||||
| Exports [c] (kt) | 23,702 | 27,248 | 29,960 | |||||||||
| Food & Industrial Use [e] (kt) | 10,568 | n/a | n/a | |||||||||
| Feed, Waste, Dockage (kt) | 25,312 | n/a | n/a | |||||||||
| Total Domestic Use [d] (kt) | 37,653 | 38,784 | 39,382 | |||||||||
| Carry-out Stocks (kt) | 16,345 | 19,378 | 14,715 | |||||||||
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| Date Modified: 2006-12-08 |
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