The Health Canada Policy Toolkit for Public Involvement in Decision Making

Level 4 Technique:
Delphi Process

What Is It?

The Delphi process is used primarily to build expert consensus in attempting to forecast future trends, although it can also support group decision making on a variety of issues. The process relies on an orderly series of planned, facilitated discussions among participants. These can occur either face-to-face or by correspondence. Participation is limited to people with expertise or a common interest in a specific issue, and groups are structured to ensure that each member brings a unique perspective to the process.

How It Works

The facilitator opens the session by introducing the issue(s) under review. There is usually no need for background information, since participants have been chosen for their pertinent expertise. The facilitator must be well informed on the issue as well, since she or he will play a key role in building consensus among participants.

Following the introduction, the group enters into a facilitated debate, in which participants' views are expressed and verbally evaluated. The purpose of the debate is to produce informed judgement on the issue. This continues until participants and the facilitator feel that all aspects of the issue have been fully addressed and general agreement has been reached. All comments and opinions are recorded by the facilitator or an assigned note taker. This ensures that the information cannot be misconstrued or misinterpreted later on. Remote discussions must be kept fairly consistent (a teleconference each week or a mailing every two weeks), so that the issue remains fresh in participants' minds.

In the period following the discussion, the facilitator compiles a report that documents the group's response to the issue. Participants compare their individual comments to the group's normative response, then take part in a second discussion designed to share, support and test different viewpoints on the issue. At the end of the discussion, participants comment anonymously on the issue by writing their ideas on cards. A new report is written, and the process repeats itself until the group reaches a firm consensus or a stable disagreement.

When Is It Most Useful?

The Delphi process is used to develop fact-based decisions and strategies, reflecting expert opinion on well-defined issues. It is a particularly useful mechanism for capturing expert opinion at a distance, without organizing a live meeting. It can also help break down barriers in situations where differences between participants threaten to inhibit the free flow of ideas. Since input to the Delphi process is anonymous, there is less chance that some participants' ideas will automatically take precedence over others.

Logistics and Limits

The process is limited to participants with expertise or interest in a common issue, including the facilitator. Consistent and timely contact is crucial for remote consultations.

Cost Implications

Direct costs associated with remote consultations are limited to printing and distribution of correspondence and materials, report preparation, and fax and long distance charges. The budget for a sequence of live meetings will likely include meeting supplies, written materials, travel and accommodation. There is potentially the need to compensate individuals who must take time away from their regular jobs to take part.

Expectation for Feedback or Follow-Up

Participants may ask for a final report on the process. Follow-up information on the sponsoring organization's response to their findings is also appropriate.

Timelines

It may take two or three months to assemble a Delphi group, since expert participants will likely have other demands on their time. As already noted, the duration of the process varies. Face-to-face discussions usually take about a half-day.

Potential Pitfalls

Depending on the definition of "expertise," the emphasis on specialized debate in a Delphi group may exclude community voices from the process. This could cast doubt on the credibility of the overall public involvement plan, of which the group is a part.