Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC)

Advances in Science

The MSC conducts research to ensure that Environment Canada has a solid scientific foundation on which to build policies and strategies that safeguard our environment and protect human health. During the past year, scientists and other staff in MSC regions and headquarters carried out research in a wide variety of areas related to climate change, air quality, weather research and water. They also published reports and articles, and conducted scientific presentations and media interviews in a variety of fields. Following are some examples.

External Peer Review

A panel of atmospheric and climate scientists and managers from the United Kingdom, the United States, Australia and France conducted an external review of MSC's research and development program to evaluate performance and improve decision-making on departmental resources and planning. The review included an assessment of the productivity, quality and relevance of the MSC's science, the impact of its results on services and policy development, and future directions.

The Panel concluded that the MSC is a world leader in many areas of atmospheric and climate science, and that its research and development program "is fundamentally sound and responsive to the needs of Environment Canada and the Canadian citizens." The Panel's observations and recommendations were provided to senior management in a 25-page report, available on the MSC web site ( www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca ) Some specific areas recommended for action were: personnel succession planning; an ongoing peer review process; increased university collaboration; better client interactions; and a strategic science plan. Plans are being developed to address these areas.

Weather Research

Research Flight into Tropical Storm Karen

The MSC participated for the second time in a joint project with the National Research Council to fly a Convair 580 research aircraft into a tropical cyclone (the first was Hurricane Michael in 2000). The crew flew into Tropical Storm Karen on the morning of October 15, 2001, collecting data on wind, humidity, temperature, pressure, and micro-physical cloud measurements.

The resultant data—the first ever to document the structure of tropical cyclones—will be used for a CFCAS-supported research project and other collaborations with Canadian universities, and to better enable numerical weather prediction models to predict the behaviour of these systems. Such studies will improve forecasts of the movement and intensity of tropical systems, which will lead to more timely and effective warnings for Canadians.

Climate Change Research and Modelling

Canada has experienced 19 consecutive seasons with above normal temperatures, a trend that has occurred globally for the last 23 years. Studies using the MSC climate model consistently find evidence of a human-caused signal in global temperature observations, and research is underway to determine whether such a signal exists on a continental scale.

This is a spatial illustration of ice cover change projected by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) model. The light color indicates ice cover over the 1971-1990 period, the dark color is for 2041-2060. The left panel is March; the right panel is September. The CCCma model projects essentially ice-free Arctic in summer by the middle of the century. Projected changes in sea-ice cover are especially worrisome, and have potentially important consequences for transportation, Arctic ecosystems and indigenous people

Hydroclimatic Variations in BC and Yukon Watersheds

Climate change can have significant effects on water resources in Canada, including the availability of water during the annual water cycle, and the severity of extreme events such as droughts and floods. During recent decades, hydrologic changes in natural streamflow systems in British Columbia and the Yukon have shown a strong climate signal—with streams in the interior of BC exhibiting an earlier spring freshet and extended summer recession, and streams in the Yukon having significantly higher flows throughout the year. The MSC is using a combination of statistical and process-based models to generate hydrologic-change scenarios and to determine the mechanisms responsible for recent hydroclimatic variability.

Select the image to enlarge

Average streamflows at Sullivan Creek near Canyon for periods 1975-1986 and 1987-1998 as modelled (left) and observed from large-scale climate data (right)

Collaborating on Climate Impact Studies

In the early 1990s, trembling aspen began to suffer dieback and reduced growth in some areas of Alberta and Saskatchewan due to a combination of climatic factors and defoliation by the forest tent caterpillar. Exceptionally warm temperatures across most of Canada and severe drought in parts of the western interior in recent years have raised concerns about the status of these important forests under climate change. To address the issue, the MSC's Prairie & Northern Region, the Canadian Forest Service and other partners are collaborating on a long-term research and monitoring effort involving aspen stands from the Northwest Territories to southern Manitoba. Using tree-ring analysis and other methods, they hope to determine how climate and insects affect interannual variation in the growth of these forests.

PEI Sea-Level Rise Study

The Climate Change Action Fund report Coastal Impacts of Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise on Prince Edward Island was published on March 1, 2002. The report details the findings of a study carried out by the MSC in cooperation with federal, provincial, municipal and institutional partners that combined the use of long-term tidal records, ice-cover trends and the regional storm-surge model. The study resulted in several scientific outputs, including the development of a storm-surge climatology for the province and various socio-economic impact and adaptation scenarios. This information is of great value to Emergency Measures staff in PEI in warning citizens of impending flooding events and providing tailored information for coastal areas. The City of Charlottetown is using the results in its planning, as well as in issuing new building permits for coastal land.

Air Quality Research

Effects of Smog on Heart and Blood Vessels

A joint study involving the MSC, Health Canada, and the universities of Michigan and Toronto, has found new evidence that smog has a direct effect on the heart and blood vessels. Scientists demonstrated that when polluted air is inhaled, it enters the lungs and starts a chemical chain reaction that causes blood vessels to constrict slightly. Although this would not likely harm a healthy person in the short term, it could have a significant impact on those with heart disease or circulatory problems, possibly even triggering a heart attack.

Northern Atmospheric Contaminants

Atmospheric mercury and ozone depletion events have been observed in the High Arctic during polar sunrise. Although the mechanisms remain enigmatic, bromine radicals have been identified as potential oxidizers—contributing significantly to the destruction of ozone in the polar stratosphere and, in their reactive form, playing a key role in mercury oxidation and boundary-layer ozone depletion. In order to identify sources and quantify the atmospheric origins of contaminants in northern regions, a second intensive measurement campaign took place in spring 2001 in Kuujjuarapik, Quebec. The effort, which involved researchers from MSC Quebec, the Institut de Recherche Scientifique (Quebec), the University of Crete (Greece), and the Institut für Umweltphysik (Germany), revealed that mercury depletion episodes are also active in the Low Arctic, are not restricted to the polar sunrise, and occur at night as well as during the day.

Air Quality Models Applications Group

The MSC has received new resources to deliver results identified in the Canada-US Ozone Annex related to the identification of the transboundary component of ozone and particulate-matter episodes. These resources will contribute to the creation of a core Air Quality Models Applications Group at the Canadian Meteorological Centre, to provide scientific support for policy and decision making. In order to maximize the use of internal expertise and synergies, all activities related to air quality prediction within CMC will be merged under this new group. An important aspect of the air quality models applications group strategy is to provide MSC regions with resources to create or further develop modelling and analysis expertise in order to take advantage of existing collaborations with other levels of government in Canada.

Hydrology: Water Science

Water Monitoring in a Dry Season

Water shortages are becoming more frequent in Canada due to significant development at the watershed level. In situations where demand exceeds the available supply, conflicts occur between competing needs for water to sustain environmental, economic, and recreational activities.

In 2001, water shortage became acute in the Prairies. The Water Survey Division (WSD) of the MSC's Prairie & Northern Region responded by providing critical data and information to the agencies responsible for water management at the watershed and interjurisdictional levels. During the spring freshet, irrigation, and energy-demand seasons, data were collected, processed and disseminated to users in the three Prairie provinces and the northern United States. To ensure compliance with established water allocations, monitoring and reporting of hydrologic conditions was greatly increased at some 250 hydrometric sites across the Prairies. This effort is expected to continue in 2002-03, due to ongoing low-flow and drought conditions in watersheds that have allocated their firm supply of water.

Federal Water Research Network

MSC's water science and policy sections participated in an EC-led interdepartmental initiative to establish a Federal Water Research Network. In August 2001, six federal departments met to identify priority areas for water research and explore opportunities for cooperation and collaboration. Since then, the MSC has worked closely with EC's National Water Research Institute and with other departments, such as Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada and Natural Resources Canada, to identify priority areas, including severe weather events, ground- to-surface-water interaction and how it relates to water quality and quantity issues, and the coupling of atmospheric, hydrologic and biological models to address water-quality source and contamination issues.

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